Fantasy Baseball Rumblings: Steals=Runs (sometimes) Edition

Time for another edition of the FBR with J Ellet Lambie after we got such a good response from his last post.  This one is exclusive to my blog, so be sure to let him know what you think, but also go to his site for more good content.

The FBR, or Fantasy Baseball Ramblings segment, appears regularly at www.jelletlambie.wordpress.com like photos of Bud Selig looking confused. Think of it as a friend who comes into your home and spews obscure stats and bold predictions while drinking all your beer. Enjoy.

Fantasy baseball managers often build and manage their teams according to conventional wisdom. There are accepted idioms and time-tested schools of thought that can creep into our decisions whether we realize it or not.

“Don’t draft closers early”

“Don’t overpay for injured players”

“Only draft your favorite player if he’s a good fantasy player”

and….

“Stolen bases equal runs”

Do they now? Many of us have assumed for years that if we fill our squads with guys who steal many bases, that we’ll be blessed with many runs as well. It makes sense. If a guy can steal 2nd base, he has a better chance of scoring on a single. True, in the real baseball sense at least.

But I’ve been wondering how accurate the steals = runs logic in fantasy baseball is lately. So I did a little research. Now follow me down the golden road of statistics until we reach a happy place where all of our questions will be answered, particularly, do steals equal runs?

Below is a table I’ve prepared listing every player in MLB with double digit stolen bases through 5/28/09. I’ve also included the number of runs scored by each player and that players batting average to date. I know, I’m too good to you, but this keeps me out of trouble, and I know it makes you smile that quirky little smile so it’s all worth it.

Player	Steals	Runs	Batting Average
Carl Crawford	30	36	0.317
Jacoby Ellsbury	21	28	0.302
Chone Figgins	19	29	0.298
Michael Bourn	16	28	0.286
B.J. Upton	15	30	0.192
Bobby Abreu	14	20	0.309
Jason Bartlett	14	32	0.373
Willy Taveras	12	33	0.272
Jose Reyes	11	18	0.279
David Wright	11	31	0.345
CoCo Crisp	11	29	0.233
Emmanuel Burriss	11	15	0.271
Denard Span	11	28	0.311
Matt Kemp	11	29	0.295
Dexter Fowler	11	21	0.266
Torii Hunter	10	34	0.315
Ian Kinsler	10	34	0.282
Derek Jeter	10	30	0.297
Josh Anderson	10	12	0.302
Mark Reynolds	10	29	0.263
Juan Pierre	10	25	0.407
Brian Roberts	10	42	0.306
Nyjer Morgan	10	27	0.286

There are 23 players with 10 or more stolen bases so far in 2009. At first glance, the theory seems to be holding water, as nine of the top 10 thiefs have scored 28 or more runs already (the average for this group); seems to be an impressive tally. Then I examined the MLB leaders in runs scored, and only four of these names are among the top 20 in the category. Only one (Brian Roberts) is among the top 15.

Overall, there are 65 players in MLB who have scored 28 runs or more so far, meaning more players with less than 10 steals have scored 28 + runs than players with 10 or more steals. What’s that you say? You’re confused? So am I. But don’t worry about it, we’re not done yet.

While having players on your roster in the top 20 in any given category is a good thing, it’s not required to reap fantasy success. You only have to be better than the other teams in your league overall.

The 23 players above, on average, have stolen 13 bases and scored 28 times to this point in 2009. We are just a hair past the 1/4 mark of the season, so if you were to loosely extrapolate a full seasons worth of data for these players, you’ll end up with a group of guys who are on pace, on average, to steal 52 bases and score 112 runs. Do I think all 23 players will do that? I think there is a better chance the Loch Ness Monster comes out of hiding, joins the Washington Nationals and puts up these numbers, so no. But, I think it is fair to predict perhaps 6-8 players can do it this year.

Even if you were to assume that every player on the above list saw his stats in both categories fall by 20 percent going forward, that would still equate to an average of 42 steals and 90 runs scored. Could you live with that? If you have three or four players with those numbers on your roster at the end of this season, I expect you’ll be doing well in the standings.

The trick is to go a step further and determine which players do well in both categories and which don’t. Perhaps if I posted a simple list of the R:SB ratio of every player with double digit steals that would help? Ok, here you go. Don’t say I never gave you nothin.

Player	Steals	Runs	R:SB
Brian Roberts	10	42	4.2
Torii Hunter	10	34	3.4
Ian Kinsler	10	34	3.4
Derek Jeter	10	30	3
Mark Reynolds	10	29	2.9
David Wright	11	31	2.82
Willy Taveras	12	33	2.75
Nyjer Morgan	10	27	2.7
Matt Kemp	11	29	2.64
CoCo Crisp	11	29	2.64
Denard Span	11	28	2.54
Juan Pierre	10	25	2.5
Jason Bartlett	14	32	2.29
B.J. Upton	15	30	2
Dexter Fowler	11	21	1.91
Michael Bourn	16	28	1.75
Jose Reyes	11	18	1.64
Chone Figgins	19	29	1.53
Bobby Abreu	14	20	1.43
Emmanuel Burriss	11	15	1.36
Jacoby Ellsbury	21	28	1.33
Carl Crawford	30	36	1.2
Josh Anderson	10	12	1.2

I’m not sure if I debunked this myth or not, but then again I’m not sure about a lot of things and yet I manage to wash and feed myself and win league championships just fine. What I do know is that having players on your roster that give you strong contributions in multiple categories is paramount to winning in fantasy baseball. Balance my friends, is where it’s at. Now let’s add in batting average and see what we can expect. Of the 23 players listed above, there are 10 who are currently hitting .300 or better. They are….

Player	Steals	Runs	Batting Average
Juan Pierre	10	25	0.407
Jason Bartlett	14	32	0.373
David Wright	11	31	0.345
Carl Crawford	30	36	0.317
Torii Hunter	10	34	0.315
Denard Span	11	28	0.311
Bobby Abreu	14	20	0.309
Brian Roberts	10	42	0.306
Jacoby Ellsbury	21	28	0.302
Josh Anderson	10	12	0.302

Aren’t numbers fun? If nothing else you now have a list of 10 players hitting over.300 who, on average, have stolen 14 bases and scored 28 runs roughly 1/4 through the season. Yes, I adjusted the math for this specific list, I like you that much. So let’s look closer at some of these players and how they compare, to one another and in general.

From a glance,  I see two stat lines that strike me funny, they belong to Josh Anderson and Bobby Abreu. Anderson has swiped 10 bags but only scored 12 times, while Abreu owns a 14/20 split. Is it just me or does that seem disproportionately low? That makes a R:SB ratio of 1.2 for Anderson and 1.43 for Abreu. In their cases , tolen bases have very little to do with runs scored.

I don’t know how many players in MLB have scored 12 or more runs while having stolen zero bases, but I’m sure it’s a big number. Which brings up perhaps the most pertinent point of the original question: every player is different. While looking at the leaders in one category, in this case steals, you can calculate averages and trends, but still need to examine each player individually. It’s the last mile, the final stitch, the 10 percent between the champions and the second tier owners.

From this widdled down list of .300 + hitters who steal and score with regularity, I think Josh Anderson and Juan Pierre are the least likely to give you a full season, although both have their place either in a deep league or for a smaller window, aka until Manny returns. Anderson has been productive, but is in a platoon, Pierre is likely to see a serious drop off in playing time come July 4.

Bobby Abreu has some injury concerns and has only one home run and 19 RBI’s at this point. Combined with his poor run efficiency, that makes him a liability in three categories, which I just don’t tolerate. Jacoby Ellsbury has one home run and 13 RBI’s to his credit, so let’s move him aside as well.

That leaves six players with strong value to start your wish list. You should always have a wish list. If these players are on your roster now, good for you, go have a cookie. If they are not, figure out a way to get them. You have access to data their owners may not, use it to your advantage.

Carl Crawford has only one ding-dong as well, but he has 15 extra base hits to date with 22 RBI’s and he’s 30 for 30 in stolen base attempts, so I’ll look past his awful 1.2 R:SB ratio in this case. His 162 game averages for power numbers are 14 home runs, 76 RBI’s historically, although those numbers are trending down, just to be warned. In any event, I think he’s a solid play going forward and the likely MLB stolen base champ when it’s all said and done.

Jason Bartlett is quietly having a spectacular season. Hitting .373 with seven homers, 30 RBI’s, 32 runs scored and 14 steals in 15 attempts. He’s on the DL as of this moment, which could be your window to prying him away from an owner who gets a little too twitchy over minor injuries. I’m just saying, it’s a possibility. His R:SB ratio is a respectable 2.29.

David Wright is a beast, we all know this. Yes, his strike out numbers are much higher this year (to read more on that subject click here) and he’s hit only three home runs thus far, but his OPS is .949. 11 steals and 31 runs go nicely with a .345 average. He’s a keeper.

Torii Hunter is having a very nice season as well. His 10 steals and 34 runs give him 3.4 runs scored for every steal, tied for 2nd best (Kinsler) among those with double digit steals, behind only the 4.2 of Brian Roberts. 11 home runs and 40 RBI’s don’t hurt either.

The aforementioned Brian Roberts leads the majors in runs with 42. A .306 hitter with 10 steals, he has six home runs and 21 RBI’s, which is neither tremendous or horrific. He does however have 23 extra base hits and an .865 OPS. Plus he’s a second basemen, which can be a tough position to fill with these kind of numbers.

And finally the name no one knows, or at least talks about - Denard Span. This kid, who was undrafted in more than 98% of ESPN leagues, is hitting .311 with a .403 OBP, three home runs, 22 RBI’s and the previously discussed 11 swipes and 28 runs scored. He may max out at 10 home runs or so, but the he should be a strong plus in three categories and a push in a 4th (RBI’s). You might no even have to trade for him, there’s a good chance he’s in your free agent pool right now.

To once again turn myself back to the original question (sorry, I ramble, but that is the name of the segment after all), do steals equal runs?

Sometimes.

How’s that for definitive? In many cases the argument can be made that players with high SB totals will give you some extra lovin’ in the runs scored category, but, it is not always the case. The trick is to identify the players that do turn steals into runs, that give you plus numbers in both categories, and to then research them further and see who helps you most. I never said winning was easy, but it is possible with a little research. The numbers are out there, or in this case right up there.

Before I go, good karma goes out to deposed Rockies manager Clint Hurdle, who was fired Thursday night. Yes his team has been awful since the start of last season, but he’s a good guy by all accounts. I wish him well.

Hazaa

If you have comments, questions, swarmy outbursts or ideas for a future FBR segment your comments are welcome below - the dirtier the better. If you prefer the more traditional electronic mail route you can drop me a line at [e-mail]