Stanley Cup Finals: The Future Is Now

Generally, I hate when writers try to force connections between the past and present as a way of garnering attention for their pieces.  Needless to say, there has been an abundance of articles drawing a correlation between the first Stanley Cup win by Wayne Gretzky's Edmonton Oilers over the New York Islanders, and the Pittsburgh-Detroit series that begins tonight.  In this case however, they're right.

This series is Pittsburgh's to win.

While the Penguins have peaked at the perfect time – essential for a team to win the Stanley Cup – Detroit has been ravaged by injuries to their top players, and has had to grind out many of their wins.  Beyond the obvious chemistry issues that this will cause in the Finals, it has greatly affected their penalty killing unit, which has been a huge disappointment thus far in the playoffs.  As if on cue, said unit is about to have it's greatest test yet.

Be it Jr. D or the NHL, special teams play has become a critical factor in the success of failure of teams in the playoffs.  While Detroit's power play is 3rd in the playoffs at a 25.7% clip, their penalty killing unit has been nothing short of an abomination.  73.7% is a recipe for disaster against even the most pedestrian power plays, let alone one led by the 3rd and 4th highest PPG players in NHL history.

Sure, Sergei Gonchar has a blown out ACL, which is one of the worst-kept secrets of the "Hide all injuries" era, but it hasn't affected his ability to quarterback the power play at a high level of efficiency.  On the contrary, the more he gets used to playing with the bulky ACL brace on his leg, the more effective he will be.

The one saving grace for Detroit may be the fact that Nicklas Lidstrom will be in the lineup for Game 1 tonight.  This should mean that Chris Chelios will be a healthy scratch, which is almost as good of news as Lidstrom's return.

Don't get me wrong, Chelios is still a solid, serviceable 6th-7th defensemen who can play against 15-20 teams in the NHL.  The problem comes when any forward with an extra gear gets moving and is on Chelios' side of the ice - his lack of speed is completely exploitable, as proven by Teemu Selanne in the Anaheim series. 

Obviously, with the top-4 defensemen that Detroit has, Chelios' ice time vs either the Crosby or Malkin lines would be minimal.  This means one of two things.  Either a double-shifting Crosby/Malkin will be playing on the 4^th line, who Chelios’ D unit would be matched up again (oh, so Chelios would see them), or Jordan Staal's line would be seeing ice time vs Chelios' pairing, and if you don't think for a second that Staal wouldn't be doing his damnest to use his speed & physicality to dominate Chelios at every opportunity, you need to switch over to the French Open.  Let me know how Sharapova's doing when you get a minute.

Okay, so far we've covered special teams & low-end depth, but what about Detroit's top players?  Okay sure, where do you want to start?  With Pavel Datsyuk, who's been playing injured & not productively when he has been in the lineup?  His absence has hurt Detroit's even strength and penalty killing, and seeing as he'll be missing Game 1 tonight, when he does get into the lineup, he will obviously be playing at far less than 100%.  For all intents and purposes, the MVP nominee we know will not be making an appearance in this series.

Or, we could talk about Marian Hossa.  Sure, he's got 12 points in 16 games – only .75 PPG, and he's playing 18:39 a game.  But those stats aren't horrible you say?  Fine, how's this?  He has three 2-goal games, which means that Hossa has not scored in 13 of Detroit's 16 playoff games.  That complete lack of consistency cancels out all of the good that Johan Franzen has done, and that's before Franzen's PPG average slowed up in the Chicago series.  Yes, Hossa saved his best hockey for the Stanley Cup Finals last year.  He was also playing with Crosby at the time, who had a massive moving target on his chest, which freed up room for Hossa.  With Datsyuk (playing) injured, that simply won't be the case this year.

While Detroit has lost their best forward - Datsyuk - and their best defensemen is playing injured, Pittsburgh's two best forwards have raised their game to a level that they've never been at before.  On top of that development, the Penguins have far more offensive depth this year.  Last year's team featured a grind-or-bust Pascal Dupuis, and a hit-and-miss Petr Sykora.  This year's team on the other hand has Bill Guerin, who hasn't flamed out as the playoffs progress – for once; Chris Kunitz, who has a Stanley Cup ring (with Anaheim) & creates space for Crosby to operate; Ruslan Fedotenko, who plays solid fundamental playoff hockey (I can't believe I just typed those words) and scores big goals; and Miroslav Satan…who's actually playing well. 

Look at those names.  Three of the four are past playoff busts, and they're all bringing it this year.  There's a name for that: Destiny.

I haven't talked about goaltending to this point because really, there is nothing to talk about.  Osgood has been statistically superior to Fleury, but Osgood didn't play seven games vs Washington.  Fleury has shut the door when it's been needed, and he will be far more prepared for what the Stanley Cup Finals entail than he was last season.  There will be no carpet-tripping.  What there will be is a greater level of calm. 

Also, don't discount the presence of Mark Eaton this year.  He was injured last season, but is healthy now.  He's currently playing 6th D ice time (17:59/game), but the second that Hal Gill’s size is exploited by Detroit's speed, Eaton, who plays on a pairing with Gonchar, will see his ice time increase by two minutes per game, minimum.  He makes a good first pass out of the zone, and is an excellent penalty-killer.  He will be one of the unsung heroes for the Penguins this series.

So to summarize, the Penguins have far more offensive depth, a more sound, playoff-hardened defense, an elite goalie ready to prove his pedigree, and two elite players playing better hockey than they have ever played.  On the other hand, Detroit is missing their best forward, their best defensemen is playing hurt, their third best forward is not playing up to his potential (and will have a massive target on his chest in this series), and their penalty killing is a complete liability. 

Just as they did in 1984, the defending champs steal one game.  Pittsburgh earns the Stanley Cup in five.