College Football's Best Bets for Week 15
Championship week is upon us, but even beyond the conference title games, leagues without multiple divisions present some interesting games to wager on.
Still, most casual bettors would rather spend money on the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12 and ACC Championship Games, since those are the ones that most eyes will be watching. They're also the teams that people have seen the most all season, so they've been able to glean the most info.
This week's best bets include a little bit of both: some tips on a few of the biggest games on the schedule, along with some normal conference games and off-the-radar locks.
Enjoy.
Note: Spread info courtesy of Vegas Insider.
6. Marshall at Rice (+4.5)
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The Pick: Marshall
C-USA created some arcane and dubious formula to break the tie atop each of its divisions, working, as B/R's Sam Chi suggests, to prevent Marshall from getting to host Rice and instead letting the Owls host the Herd.
But enough about conspiracy theories (even when they sound legit). Marshall knows it should have hosted this game by any objective measure, and it will come out angry at the injustice that its conference engineered.
I was beyond impressed from what I saw the Herd do in Week 14, beating an East Carolina team that I believed to be the best in the conference. It wasn't a fluky win, either; Marshall beat the stuffing out of the Pirates, 59-28, and made a very loud statement about its firepower.
Rice is well and good; a decent football team; talented enough to hang around for a half. But at the end of the day, there will be too much Rakeem Cato for it to stay within a touchdown. Lay the points.
5. Stanford (+3.5) at Arizona State
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The Pick: Stanford
These two teams have trended in opposite directions since Stanford's 42-28 win back in September, with Arizona State gaining momentum as the season went on, and the Cardinal playing well enough but looking hardly like a superpower.
Still, I watched that September game from start to finish, and these teams did not appear to be on the same level. A margin of 14 points was not indicative of what happened on that field; Stanford was about four touchdowns better.
ASU is much, much stronger at home, but it needed a botched late call to beat Wisconsin in Tempe earlier this year. Stanford has always seemed, to me, like a rich man's version of Wisconsin, and I think it will find similar success on the ground.
Especially with Marion Grice out, the Sun Devils might struggle in the red zone against a very good bend-but-don't-break Cardinal defense. With the hook at 3.5 points, I'll happily take the dog.
4. Michigan State (+5.5) vs. Ohio State
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The Pick: Michigan State
I like Michigan State with the 5.5 points here, but the money line might be an even smarter bet—not because the Spartans are a safe bet to win, but because they stand about as much chance of winning as they do of losing by a touchdown or more.
Let me put that in simpler terms: Ohio State has the potential to blow Michigan State out on Saturday. Its offense is good enough to score some points on MSU—remember, both Indiana and Nebraska put up 28 on Michigan State—and the Spartans offense, while better than it was in September, is still hard to feel confident about.
But if Michigan State is able to hang around for the first half or so, I think it will win the game outright. If it can frustrate Braxton Miller and (especially) Carlos Hyde, this team is due to finally win a close one, after having lost five games by four points or less last season.
MSU is the right side here, and the points might very well come in handy. Remember that last year's Spartans, which didn't become bowl-eligible until their final game of the regular season, lost by just one point to Ohio State, which of course finished undefeated.
Taking the points is the safe way to bet this, but I'm willing to roll the dice on Sparty to win straight up.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
3. Texas (+13.5) at Baylor
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The Pick: Baylor
Baylor was lucky to escape Fort Worth with a win over TCU and is happy to return back to Waco, where it has found far more success this season.
The Bears have been exposed as a bit over-ranked the past couple of weeks, but Oklahoma State and TCU both matched up with them in an important way: Both of those defenses have an NFL prospect at cornerback.
Without Tevin Reese in the lineup, Antwan Goodley is counted on to carry the receiving load, but he has been stifled by future pros in Justin Gilbert and Jason Verrett the past two weeks. Texas, however, does not have one of those guys; its cornerbacks are decent but nothing to write home about.
The Longhorns also struggle to stop the read-option, and while Baylor is not a read-option team, it incorporates some similar principles in its running game. Especially with Lache Seastrunk back in the lineup, it should be able to move the ball on the ground.
The Bears will get back on track this weekend—just you mark my words. With a Big 12 title still potentially on the line, they will not let Texas hang around, winning by three of four scores.
2. Missouri (+2) vs. Auburn
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The Pick: Missouri
This line has seen a lot of action on the other side since opening, moving all the way from Missouri minus-3 to Auburn minus-2, per the Vegas Insider Consensus.
That indicates two things to me, both of which confirm things that I already thought: (1) The public is down on Missouri and up on Auburn, and (2) The books are down on Auburn and up on Missouri.
Historically, it is always better to side with the books than the public. The saying is that "the house always wins," not the square buying tickets. In fact, 19 of 20 sports bettors lose over the fullness of time, so you almost never want to be on their side.
Auburn may be pegged as a team of destiny, but to me that just means it has caught a couple of lucky breaks. Missouri is one miserable quarter against South Carolina away from being undefeated, and it's had to overcome adversity like losing QB James Franklin for four games in order to get here.
This one will be close, but I like the Tigers with balance over the Tigers with one (very good) dimension. Mizzou wins outright, maybe by something like a touchdown.
1. Louisiana-Lafayette (+2) at South Alabama
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The Pick: South Alabama
Don't be afraid to ride and die with the Jaguars, who have been a pleasant surprise all season, despite the 5-6 record.
UL-Lafayette lost its first conference game against UL-Monroe last week, falling on its home field against a team that USA beat by 22 points. That was the last time South Alabama played a home game, and it is peaking at the right time.
This line opened as a pick'em, but it has been bet up to where it currently sits. Unlike the Missouri-Auburn game, public money is not what's been coming in to adjust the spread; only sharps know enough about Sun Belt Football to affect a line so dramatically.
The Jaguars are playing to reach six wins and avoid a losing season, while the Ragin' Cajuns locked up at least a share of the conference title when Arkansas State lost to Western Kentucky last week. The former has more motivation to play well, and it might be the better team anyway.
U-S-A, all the way.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
