Breaking Down the Best BCS Championship Games at Week 13
With just three weeks remaining in the college football regular season, the number of plausible BCS National Championship Games can be counted on two hands (and maybe a couple of toes).
In the five power conferences—the only ones with a realistic chance at landing a team in the title game, for better or worse—just 10 teams remain with one loss or less, and not even all of those squads are genuine threats to reach Pasadena.
With so few potential options out there, 'tis officially the season to start looking ahead and speculating. Which realistic scenario would provide the best game? Which team would have the advantage?
Which tedious storyline will get jammed down our throats for more than a month?
Here's a quick preview.
5. Auburn vs. Alabama
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It's a little crazy, but crazier things have happened (see: the entire 2007 season). This isn't a list of the most realistic national title games, it's a list of the best plausible ones. And how good would this one be?
First and foremost, Auburn would need to beat Alabama in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Baylor and Ohio State still have big hurdles to clear in Oklahoma State and (most likely) Michigan State, and Florida State would need to get shocked by either Florida or the ACC Coastal Champion.
From there, Auburn would need to win the SEC Championship Game, and 'Bama would need to eke out Oregon as the top one-loss team in America, the last of which is most likely of all these scenarios.
An Iron Bowl rematch is a pipe dream. Sure. But think about the potential!
Nick Saban looking to avenge a rivalry loss from earlier that season, just like he did against LSU a couple of years ago? A showdown of the last four BCS National Championship winners, assuring that the final five BCS titles all went to the same two schools?
SEC fans—particularly those who reside in the state of Alabama—would be unbearably smug, but dealing with that is a small consolation. That game would be awesome.
4. Alabama vs. Baylor
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Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.
Immovable object, meet unstoppable force.
The showdown between Baylor's offense and Alabama's defense would be talked about ad nauseam in the weeks leading up to the game, but by no means would it be "over hyped." Doing so would be impossible; this matchup would be that good.
Kirby Smart's defense has pitched a first-half shutout in seven of its last eight games, a stat that exceeds the formal definition of "ridiculous." But Art Briles' offense has found similar first-half success this year, averaging 39.3 points in the first two quarters—a number that would place top-15 nationally per game.
For all of the hoopla about Briles vs. Smart, though, this game would probably be decided on the other side of the ball. Baylor's defense has been underrated according to raw numbers, but it hasn't really been tested by a quality offense.
Seriously, who's the best quarterback it's faced? The answer might legitimately be Blake Bell from Oklahoma. That is a troubling thought indeed.
If the Bears could slow down AJ McCarron and the Alabama rushing attack, they would probably be able to score enough points to win. Doing so, however, would be much easier said than done.
3. Baylor vs. Ohio State
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Enough of the stupid rhetoric and hypothetical discourse. Come Jan. 6, it wouldn't matter whose schedule strength was better or which team deserved to be ranked No. 3 back in mid-November.
Let them decide it on the field.
If things hold true to form, Baylor and Ohio State will have been one year too early on their collective undefeated seasons. Were the College Football Playoff already in place, both would likely control their fate.
As it stands now, both teams need a little bit of help to reach the BCS National Championship Game—and one of them needs more than the other. That's why they've become such de facto rivals the past few weeks: It's important to know which should be the higher-ranked squad.
All of that argument has made this game sound more and more appetizing. Stances have been taken on both sides of the Ohio State-Baylor issue, but unless the two teams meet in Pasadena, those stances will always be hypothetical.
You can't beat an offensive chess match between Urban Meyer and Art Briles. It would be the Spassky-Fischer of our time.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
2. Florida State vs. Baylor
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Aesthetically speaking, this is easily the best-case scenario for the BCS National Championship Game—a battle of the two most pleasing-to-watch offenses in America.
By almost every efficiency metric, these have been the two best attacking units in college football this season, or at least two of the top three.
In addition to ranking first and third in Football Outsiders' offensive (and overall) F/+ rankings, both teams also rank top 10 in defense, which would give both offenses a sufficient challenge. This isn't West Virginia or Syracuse they'd be going up against—it would be a real, live, active defense.
Both teams are, in some ways, mirrors of one another on offense. It all starts with the quarterbacks (Jameis Winston and Bryce Petty), but both are also loaded with a three-headed rushing attack, both have a deep stable of seemingly fungible receivers and both have big, athletic offensive lines.
Let the best version of that system win!
1. Alabama vs. Florida State
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We're inclined to think this is boring because it's the game that we will get, barring any major upsets at the top of the rankings. Time has conditioned us to root for chaos at the top, and this game would signal a lack thereof.
But how could you not want to see these two teams play? Of the four undefeated teams left in college football, they have played the hardest-quality opponents, and for the most part they have wiped the floor with them.
There are interesting personnel subplots, too. Nick Saban's typical schematic advantage might be mitigated by Jimbo Fisher, who spent five years as his offensive assistant at LSU.
Meanwhile, at quarterback, we would have potential Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston against perpetually under-appreciated AJ McCarron. One would be looking to validate his gaudy stats with a national championship; the other would be looking to validate his questionable stats with a third.
The drama goes on and on.
Even if Baylor and Ohio State finish undefeated, there would be little argument over which two teams in the current system deserve to play in Pasadena. That's how good Florida State and Alabama have been.
And that's how good this game would be expected to be.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
