Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as a BCS Championship Contender
Here we are, folks. It's officially the home stretch.
According to Brett McMurphy of ESPN.com, 28 of the 30 teams to have ever reached the BCS National Championship have all finished top-four in the fifth BCS poll.
Said fifth poll was released on Sunday evening, and by that token, the overwhelming favorites to reach the big game are Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor.
Still, there is historical precedent for teams outside the top-four to reach the national title game. And even if there wasn't, this is the final year of the BCS; wouldn't it be fitting for this era to end with an anomaly?
This system has been marked by unpredictability. Shouldn't it go out with a bang?
10. Oklahoma State
1 of 10
SELL
You don't get to lose to a team like West Virginia and play in the BCS National Championship Game in the same year, especially after the Mountaineers just lost to woeful Kansas in Week 12.
I'll buy Oklahoma State as a very good team and a legitimate threat to beat Baylor at home this week. The way this team is running the ball and (especially) playing defense, it could give the Bears some serious trouble.
But that one slip-up in Morgantown is too much to forgive—at least in college football. The 'Pokes might well win the Big 12 and make a BCS bowl. They just wont play in Pasadena.
9. Stanford
2 of 10
SELL
Utah and USC are both a little underrated, especially at home, which is where each team beat Stanford. For the Cardinal, both losses were bad but slightly forgivable.
Still, in a vacuum, this team has lost twice to teams that weren't ranked when they played. That is not something that BCS National Champions do.
Now that Oregon controls the Pac-12 North, Stanford would need some unlikely help to make the conference championship game. With two losses on its resume, this team should consider itself lucky to still be in the BCS at-large conversation.
8. Missouri
3 of 10
BUY
Missouri would obviously need some help to reach the national title game, but it has enough difficult games left on its potential schedule to make a move.
Both of its remaining games are against teams currently ranked in the BCS standings, starting this week at Ole Miss and continuing with a home game against Texas A&M after that. Should the Aggies win at LSU this week, they would definitely place in the top 10.
If the Tigers win both of those games, they would likely go on to face Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. How good would that prospective win look on a BCS profile?
Touting Mizzou is easier than it looks. Except for one awful quarter against South Carolina, it has outplayed opponents in almost every instance this season.
It could finish as the eventual top one-loss team in America. As we've seen in the past, that is often a very good place to be.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Clemson
4 of 10
SELL
Florida State could make a very strong case for being the best team in America, which means that Clemson, potentially, has beaten everyone on its schedule that isn't the best team in America.
That's the good news.
The bad news is that the Tigers got embarrassed by their rival—at home, no less—which left an indelible mark in the mind of voters and will probably make it impossible for them to make the BCS National Championship Game.
This is college football, where one bad game can ruin a season. Next year, once the playoff is adopted, the Tigers would have a much more realistic shot.
6. Auburn
5 of 10
BUY
I'm not one for superstitious hokum or believing in higher powers. But by God, if Saturday's win didn't tag Auburn as a "Team of Destiny," then I don't know what would.
The Tigers control their fate in the SEC, hosting Alabama in the Iron Bowl a couple of weekends from now in a game that could throw the whole season into chaos.
If they win that—easier said than done, in case you didn't know—they would head to Atlanta for the conference championship game, where a top-10 team in South Carolina or Missouri would likely wait, depending on how they fare the rest of this season.
Those are two golden chances to boost this team's profile, and seeing as Auburn is already within spitting distance of Oregon, it would likely end up as the top one-loss team in America.
Again, history has proven that to be a very good thing.
5. Oregon
6 of 10
BUY
Oregon was the biggest beneficiary of Stanford's loss at USC, save maybe the Trojans themselves, who are now once again ranked in the BCS Top 25.
The Ducks now control their own fate in the Pac-12, and they should be able to win the North division with relative ease; games at Arizona and vs. Oregon State are easier than they appeared a couple of weeks ago.
Missouri and Auburn could both eventually pass Oregon as the top one-loss team in America, but in order to do so, both would likely need to beat Alabama (and every other team they face). Banking on that is a very risky proposition.
Oregon still has a chance to claim that elusive title, and again, one last time, being the top one-loss team is a very good thing to be.
4. Baylor
7 of 10
BUY
With each passing week, and each subsequent blowout, it gets harder and harder to label this team a fluke or compare it to last year's West Virginia outfit.
The Bears are pounding teams into submission, threatening to break a myriad of offensive records and also playing underrated defense. That is a deadly combo.
They're in a good spot to potentially pass Ohio State, and would—at least for the time being—should they win at Oklahoma State this week.
That would put them just one Alabama or Florida State loss away from (potentially) heading to Pasadena.
3. Ohio State
8 of 10
BUY
Bad news, Ohio State haters. Like Baylor, this team is getting harder and harder to poke holes in. Running the table for two consecutive seasons is no small feat.
Of course, the Buckeyes have yet to run the table this year, and now that Michigan State has emerged as a very scary team, doing so is no longer a relative given. Sparty might easily upend them in Indianapolis.
But MSU's emergence might actually be a good thing. If Ohio State beats the Spartans convincingly, it could end up with wins over two teams (Michigan State and Wisconsin) that finish in the BCS Top 15.
There's a very good chance that Florida State and Baylor cannot argue the same thing. It might not be enough to affect change, but that would at least be a decent lobbying point.
2. Florida State
9 of 10
BUY
Florida State has been the most consistently dominant team in college football this season; and to be perfectly frank, it hasn't even been close.
Some of that might be a product of its schedule. The Seminoles play in a weak ACC conference, and their hardest non-conference game against Florida looked much more difficult in August than it does in November.
But the sign of great teams isn't necessarily winning close games. When the margin is that small, things like weird tips and deflections can alter the outcome. Look no further than Auburn for proof of that concept.
The sign of great teams is dominating the teams you're supposed to dominate. Florida State has done that and then some, taking it one further by dominating teams like Clemson that it wasn't supposed to dominate so thoroughly.
How could you not buy the Seminoles?
1. Alabama
10 of 10
SELL
Just kidding.
BUY
Alabama looked a little sluggish at Mississippi State last week, but coming off a thorough beatdown of LSU, that can be partially forgiven.
The Tide are still a deserving No. 1 team in America, having refused to relinquish their title belt by losing at any point this season. Their defense, when on, is capable at playing at a higher level than anyone in the country, and the offense ain't half bad either.
People like to poke at Alabama's schedule, but after Chatanooga, its two remaining games are very difficult. One is against No. 6 Auburn, and the next would likely come against No. 8 Missouri or No. 11 South Carolina, both of which would likely rank even higher should they reach the SEC Championship Game.
If the Tide run the table, no one will be able to say they didn't earn it.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
