Power Ranking the Top 7 Teams Contending for an At-Large BCS Berth
OK everybody…get out your calculators, it’s time for the final round, E-V-E-R, of mathematics brought to you by the BCS.
Before getting started with the actual matriculation, here’s the assumptions that will be used to build some rather premature predictions:
- Alabama beats Missouri in the SEC Championship Game
- Baylor wins the Big 12
- Stanford beats UCLA in the Pac-12 championship game
- Ohio State beats Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game
- Florida State beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game
- Central Florida (UCF) wins the American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East)
Using this scenario as a starting point, and assuming it all magically comes true, here’s how the BCS picture will look:
- The Crimson Tide and Seminoles are in the national championship game
- Auburn finishes 10-2 and goes to the Sugar Bowl by virtue of being ranked just above Missouri (also 10-2) in the BCS rankings
- Clemson goes to the Orange Bowl (ACC champ Florida State is in the BCS title game). Baylor goes to the Fiesta Bowl
- The Rose Bowl features Stanford versus Ohio State
This puts UCF (which earns an AQ bid by winning the American Athletic) in either the Sugar, Orange or Fiesta Bowl.
This magnificent set of predictions leaves a mere two slots open in the BCS festivities. These are reserved for the last-ever “at-large” candidates.
To be considered for the at-large bid, a team must finish in the top 14 of the BCS and have more than nine wins.
Non-AQ teams can also qualify by finishing in the top 16 and winning their conference. That is, if they are ranked above an AQ conference champion in the final standings.
Remember, only two teams from each AQ conference can be tendered a BCS bid.
This crystal-clear picture all leads to the climatic question; Who best qualifies for the final two slots?
Let's take a look.
Statistics courtesy of ESPN, College Football Statistics and College Football Data Warehouse.
7. Oklahoma State
1 of 7
Current Record: 8-1, (5-1 Big 12)
Current BCS Rank: No. 12
What They Have to Do: The Cowboys need to win all of their remaining games to make a BCS bowl. At 11-1, their BCS ranking would be high enough to earn a spot in either the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl.
The problem with this—and the reason they rank No. 7 on this list—is that their final three games are at No. 24 Texas and at home against both No. 5 Baylor and No. 18 Oklahoma.
This gives them the toughest regular-season finish of any team with a clear shot at an at-large bid.
What will help Oklahoma State is its No. 13 rank in scoring offense complemented by its No. 20 ranking in scoring defense. What won’t help the ‘Pokes is a passing defense that ranks No. 84 in the FBS.
Keep in mind that this unit will square off with Baylor’s No. 3-ranked passing attack on Nov. 23.
6. Louisville
2 of 7
Current Record: 8-1, (4-1 AAC)
Current BCS Rank: No. 20
What They Have to Do: If it weren’t for its Oct. 18 loss to Central Florida earlier in the season, Louisville would be on its way to an American Athletic title and a BCS bowl. Given a little help at the top of the standings, it could have even had a shot at the national championship game.
Instead, the Cardinals have to hope for a couple of Central Florida losses or an at-large bid. Winning out shouldn’t be a problem for Louisville (with games at home against Houston and Memphis, followed by a road trip to Cincinnati), but rising high enough in the BCS standings may be.
The Big East—now the American Athletic Conference—has never sent more than one team to a BCS Bowl in history. In other words, there has never been an at-large team from the Big East/American Athletic.
That doesn’t bode well for Louisville’s chances as an at-large candidate.
5. Northern Illinois
3 of 7
Current Record: 9-0, (5-0 MAC)
Current BCS Rank: No. 15
What They Have to Do: One of the two non-BCS teams still undefeated, Northern Illinois is handicapped by virtue of initially being ranked lower than Fresno State in the BCS standings.
When the first rankings came out on Oct. 20, Fresno State came in at No. 17 while Northern Illinois fell .035 points behind at No. 18.
Even a win on Wednesday against 9-1 Ball State and a victory over Buffalo in the MAC title game may not be enough for the Huskies to overtake the Bulldogs.
Northern Illinois needs to hope for a Fresno State loss or, at the very least, a string of ugly, near-miss victories that have voters doubting the order the two teams are ranked.
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4. Michigan State
4 of 7
Current Record: 8-1, (5-0 Big Ten)
Current BCS Rank: No. 16
What They Have to Do: Even though Michigan State has a clear path to the Big Ten title game, saying it’s a lock for the BCS is a big stretch.
Even if the Spartans win out (at Nebraska, at Northwestern and versus Minnesota), they’ll have to beat Ohio State in the conference championship to seal a bid.
If not, they’ll be zapped with two losses, putting them head-to-head with Wisconsin for a potential Big Ten at-large bid.
If Michigan State finishes above Wisconsin in the final BCS standings, there is still every chance that the Spartans would be overlooked in favor of the Badgers.
What’s important to remember is that a true “at-large” bid is controlled by the committee of the specific bowl involved—a group that can technically pick from the entire pool of qualified teams.
Don’t think that could happen?
Think back to 2011 when Michigan State won its division, but was nipped by Wisconsin, 42-39, in the Big Ten title game. Did the Spartans, as the No. 2 finisher in the Big Ten, get the nod for a BCS at-large bid?
No. Michigan (which didn’t win its division) was instead picked for the Sugar Bowl, where it edged Virginia Tech, 23-20, in overtime.
The Spartans, on the other hand, where relegated to the Outback Bowl, where they beat Georgia, 33-30.
Michigan State’s best option is to win out, win the Big Ten and therefore refuse to be overlooked.
3. Fresno State
5 of 7
Current Record: 9-0, (6-0 MWC)
Current BCS Rank: No. 14
What They Have to Do: Fresno State is sitting in the catbird’s seat in the non-AQ field. At 9-0 and ranked higher than any other non-BCS team, the ball is firmly in the Bulldogs’ hands.
What will help Fresno State—other than winning out—is that the Mountain West Conference will host its first-ever conference championship game this season.
That will gives the Bulldogs, from the MWC's new West division, the opportunity to earn an additional win over a quality opponent. This season, that team will likely be Boise State, which is tied for the honors in the East with Utah State, which it knocked off earlier this season.
A second win over the Broncos should give Fresno State the oomph necessary to be the last-ever BCS-buster.
2. Wisconsin
6 of 7
Current Record: 7-2, (4-1 Big Ten)
Current BCS Rank: No. 22
What They Have to Do: As noted in the Michigan State slide, Wisconsin simply needs to win out its regular season and then sit back and hope that the Spartans either lose a game late, or tank against Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game.
Either way, the Badgers have an excellent opportunity to make a final surge in the rankings and grab a BCS at-large bid.
What will help Wisconsin is a final three-game stretch versus Indiana, at Minnesota and at home against Penn State.
While it’s far from “in the bag,” Wisconsin has the best shot of any two-loss team in the nation. A lot of this is due to the “two-team rule" that puts teams from stacked leagues, like the SEC, at a disadvantage.
Remember, this is the rule that limits conferences to two BCS bowl bids apiece—unless the two teams finish No. 1 and No. 2 in the final standings. Then a third bid is extended.
This means that even if the SEC has five teams ranked in the top 14 of the final BCS rankings, only two can make a BCS bowl.
This greatly improves the odds that a lower-ranked team like Wisconsin may get a bid.
1. Oregon
7 of 7
Current Record: 8-1, (5-1 Pac-12)
Current BCS Rank: No. 6
What They Have to Do: Despite the lingering sting of the Ducks’ loss to Stanford last week, Oregon remains in a favorable position to make a BCS bowl game for a fifth straight season.
To get it done, Oregon must first rebound and beat Utah on Saturday, followed by wins at Arizona and at home against Oregon State.
The Ducks can then watch the Pac-12 title game and hope that Stanford beats either UCLA or Arizona State.
That would gives the Pac-12 South representative its third loss (at minimum), making Oregon the obvious at-large bid—despite not winning its division—from the conference.
It’s safe to say that bowl committees will be jumping all over each other trying to get the high-flying Ducks on TV. People like watching their exciting brand of play—an opportunity that grows more tantalizing when you pair them up with a top team (like Baylor) from another conference.
That was precisely what happened last season when Oregon lost, 17-14, to Stanford during the regular season, but went on to make the Fiesta Bowl where the Cardinal ripped K-State, 35-17.
It’s also exactly what happened last season, when Florida ascended to the BCS instead of Georgia. Remember, the Gators didn’t win their division either, but still managed a Sugar Bowl bid over the Bulldogs, who came up just short in the SEC title game against Alabama.
Yes, friend, that’s just how the BCS rolls…at least for 60 more days.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
