Best-Case, Worst-Case Scenarios for Every Big Ten Team
It's crunch time. Unlike conferences that tend to come off the scheduling accelerator late in the season, Big Ten dreams are made or broken during the month of November. Far from cupcake FCS opponents, Big Ten teams still face plenty of pitfalls between now and the end of the regular season.
Everyone's busy trying to figure out which team will fit into each bowl, how the BCS rankings will play a part and whether or not the conference will snag a second BCS berth—and which team will receive such an invite.
As a community service to the loyal Big Ten fanbase, we'll lay out all the various scenarios for you in one convenient location. We'll highlight the best possible outcome for each team, as well as the worst, and see if we can't figure out for ourselves what it all means.
Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern
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Northwestern: 4-5 (0-5 in the Big Ten, 6th in Legends Division)
Purdue: 1-8 (0-5, Tied for 5th in Leaders Division)
Illinois: 3-6 (0-5, T-5th in Leaders)
We've lumped together the three teams yet to win a game in conference play mainly because the best- and worst-case scenarios are all very similar, with the possible exception of Northwestern.
Worst-Case Scenario
More of the same.
Illinois hasn't won a conference game in two seasons. Luckily, that trend might change soon, as the Illini will be taking on—you guessed it—Purdue and Northwestern to round out the season (after next week's almost certain loss to Ohio State). Losing both of those games would sink not only the last remaining hope of pride for the 2013 season, it might be the beginning of the end for the Tim Beckman era.
Purdue might actually be a worse team this season than Illinois. While the Illini have virtually no shot at earning a bowl berth this season, that ship sailed for the Boilermakers weeks ago. Purdue's lone win came in Week 2 against FCS Indiana State. It was not an auspicious start to head coach Darrell Hazell's career in West Lafayette. Penn State, Illinois and Indiana remain, and an 0-3 finish now would crush what remains of the little fan support Purdue currently has.
Northwestern started strong—and ranked—but fell flat after a near-miss against Ohio State to open Big Ten play. After a crushing defeat the following week to Wisconsin, the wheels started to come off the Wildcats' band wagon. Finishing 0-8, or even 1-7 (a real possibility with Michigan and Michigan State still remaining on the schedule), would have more than a few people believing that Northwestern is back...to its traditional Big Ten role of doormat.
Best-Case Scenario
Simply win.
For Purdue, it's all about pride now. Even if the Boilermakers somehow managed to pull off three wins down the stretch, it would mean very little for 2013, but it would give Hazell and company a strong launching point for 2014. It would certainly help with any recruiting pitch the coaching staff will be forced to give with a straight face.
As hard as it is to believe, it's still possible—although extraordinarily unlikely—for Illinois to become bowl-eligible this season. That would, of course, necessitate not only ending the conference losing streak, but doing so in spectacular fashion against Ohio State this Saturday. Illinois would then have to also beat Purdue and Northwestern, which is much more likely.
Northwestern needs two of its remaining three games to make yet another bowl appearance this season. With Northwestern's struggles, it's hard to envision the Wildcats knocking off Michigan State, which leaves Michigan and Illinois. The Wolverines are a depressed lot lately, and that could spell danger for the Wildcats come Saturday. It Northwestern can get out to an early lead, Michigan might collapse, as Big Blue doesn't seem to play well from behind (or, really, in front for that matter).
Iowa
2 of 10
Iowa: 6-4 (3-3, 4th in Legends)
It's been another lackluster season for the Hawkeyes that will likely end with a December bowl game against a weak, non-power conference opponent.
If you travel around the country, you'll eventually run into Iowa fans. Maybe they put something in the water in Iowa City, but by and large it's hard to find many Iowa fans who aren't completely infatuated with Kirk Ferentz.
He's been at Iowa forever and yet has just two Big Ten titles (both shared), while sporting a .530 win percentage in conference games. With a 3-3 mark this season, that number won't improve dramatically after all is said and done in 2013.
Worst-Case Scenario
With Michigan and Nebraska all that remain on the 2013 schedule for the Hawkeyes, it's easy to see what the worst-case scenario for Iowa might be: finishing 6-6. Nebraska is on the hunt for a division title (we'll get to that in a minute), and a loss to Iowa would all but end those chances for the Cornhuskers.
Michigan, on the other hand, is a wounded animal. Iowa hosts the Wolverines at Kinnick Stadium this season, and a big win is certainly possible against a surprisingly anemic Michigan offense. A loss, on the other hand, would only reinforce the lingering belief that Iowa is still failing to make up any ground against the top tier of the conference—even when that top tier takes a step backwards.
Best-Case Scenario
There's a big difference between 6-6 and 8-4. If Iowa can somehow slide past both Michigan and Nebraska, an important bowl—likely against the SEC or Big 12—could be in the offing.
This could also help place Iowa high enough in the standings so an argument can be made that the Hawkeyes are at least keeping pace with programs such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
Michigan
3 of 10
Michigan: 6-3 (2-3, 5th in Legends)
Anyone have Michigan in fifth place in the division after 11 weeks? Anyone outside of Columbus?
Clearly the pollsters and pundits didn't think this was going to happen. Michigan has suffered from an over-matched offensive line, ineffective quarterback play and a questionable-at-best defense.
Now that all hopes of a conference championship have disintegrated, Michigan has to focus on what remains ahead while avoiding a late-season collapse.
Worst-Case Scenario
Speaking of a collapse, a good way to start is by losing two games back-to-back. That's exactly what the Wolverines have done recently, dropping games to Michigan State and Nebraska.
Michigan doesn't get too much of a respite moving forward, either.
In typical Big Ten fashion, some of the toughest battles lie ahead. Everyone is already looking ahead to the season finale against Ohio State, but before we get there, Northwestern and Iowa stand in the way.
At this point, losing either of these two games leading up to the rivalry to end all rivalries would be disastrous. Michigan will already be a pretty heavy underdog against Ohio State at 8-3. Enter the game at 7-4 or 6-5, and no one will give Michigan any shot at pulling off a miracle upset.
Best-Case Scenario
Believe it or not, Michigan's best-case scenario this season has little to do with Northwestern and Iowa. Now, it's all about the Buckeyes.
If, and it's a mighty big if, Michigan can somehow knock off Ohio State before the Buckeyes head to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game, it would not only be a massive, season-salvaging victory for the Wolverines, it would destroy any shot Ohio State has at playing for a BCS title.
And what, in the eyes of Michigan fans, could be better?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Minnesota
4 of 10
Minnesota: 8-2 (4-2, 3rd in Legends)
So much of the heart and soul of the Minnesota football team revolves around the head coach, Jerry Kill. He's struggled, battling epileptic seizures, but what really makes this story special is the way in which Coach Kill has inspired his team and Minnesota fans everywhere—and how that team has responded with eight wins this season.
Worst-Case Scenario
It's hard to talk about a worst-case scenario in football terms when a head coach suffers from seizures the way Kill does. Still, with the impressive way Minnesota has performed this season (shocking almost everyone), losing both of the last two games of the 2013 regular season—against Wisconsin and division-leader Michigan State—might almost be seen as a letdown.
Best-Case Scenario
Minnesota still has an outside chance at winning the Legends Division in 2013. Michigan State would need to lose a couple of times, and Nebraska would also need to lose again, but if both of those things occurred and Minnesota can climb high enough in the BCS rankings (namely higher than both Nebraska and Michigan State, which is easily possible with this given scenario), Minnesota would be punching its ticket to Indianapolis.
Put Jerry Kill with improving health on the sideline during the Big Ten Championship Game on December 7, and Minnesota's dream season will nearly be complete.
Indiana
5 of 10
Indiana: 4-5 (2-3, T-3rd in Leaders)
No, that's not a typo; Indiana is actually tied for third place in the Leaders Division with a 2-3 record in Big Ten play. Maybe some people might understand why Ohio State is having such a difficult time climbing higher in the BCS rankings.
Worst-Case Scenario
Of all the Big Ten schedules remaining in the Leaders Division, Indiana can make a case for having the toughest. Wisconsin and Ohio State—both on the road—are up next for the Hoosiers before ending against in-state rival Purdue.
The Hoosiers need at least two wins to possibly earn a bowl berth, and the powerful offenses of Wisconsin and Ohio State will be a tough test for Indiana's absolutely awful defense. Unfortunately for Hoosiers fans, we don't expect Indiana to win either of these games.
What would make this scenario even worse, however, would be following up these losses—resulting in a near miss of bowl eligibility—with a loss against hapless Purdue.
Best-Case Scenario
Simple: just go 1-1 against Ohio State and Wisconsin. That should be enough to spur the Hoosiers on to a bowl game with a win over the Boilermakers in the season finale.
This, however, is going to be a very tall order for Kevin Wilson and company to accomplish.
Penn State
6 of 10
Penn State: 5-4 (2-3, T-3rd in Leaders)
The special case of Penn State will likely continue for at least another few seasons as the Nittany Lions serve out the rest of the bowl ban imposed by the NCAA.
In contrast to the rest of the conference, Penn State's best- and worst-case scenarios have nothing to do with championships or bowl berths but are, rather, more introspective.
Worst-Case Scenario
Head coach Bill O'Brien has already done a fantastic job of moving the program past the uncomfortable and horrifying situation that arose a few years ago. Although no one who has ever been involved with Penn State can or should forget all that Joe Paterno did for the program over the years—especially in the light of new revelations about how Paterno was not involved in any cover up during the Sandusky scandal—those days are now an increasingly distant memory.
The worst thing that could happen for the program now would be a slide into obscurity. Sooner or later, Penn State will be able to compete in a bowl game and challenge for a conference or even national championship. Those goals, however, will be greatly delayed if the Nittany Lions can't maintain the high bar they have set for themselves during O'Brien's first season as head coach.
Losing all three of their remaining games might just push the Nittany Lions toward that abyss.
Best-Case Scenario
Wins and losses determine success, and Penn State has two potential losses looming against Wisconsin and Nebraska. A win in either of those games will go a long way toward convincing everyone that Penn State isn't about to collapse in on its own scholarship-reduced roster.
Even if both games end in defeat for Penn State, though, a continued show of competitiveness we've seen all throughout 2013 might have the same overall effect.
Wisconsin
7 of 10
Wisconsin: 7-2 (4-1, 2nd in Leaders)
BCS Ranking: No. 22
Wisconsin likely saw it's Big Ten title hopes disappear on September 28 with a narrow loss at Ohio State. Still, it's not impossible for Wisconsin to find its way back to Indianapolis again this season, although some help will be required.
Worst-Case Scenario
Indiana, Minnesota and Penn State remain, and Wisconsin should be favored in all of those games. It's also at least conceivable to a fair observer that the Badgers could lose two, or possible all three, of these games.
Although not likely, a late season collapse could ruin any shot Wisconsin has of not only earning a January bowl invite, but quite possibly a fourth-straight BCS bowl berth.
Best-Case Scenario
As previously mentioned, Wisconsin needs some help to make it back to Indianapolis. Specifically, Ohio State will need to lose twice (as the Buckeyes hold the head-to-head tie-breaker) between now and the end of the month.
It's not likely. So what else would help Wisconsin at this point?
Realistically, Michigan State looks to be the only other Big Ten team beyond Ohio State and Wisconsin that appears capable of earning a BCS invite this season. Despite continually showing the nation that the No.1-rated defense in the FBS is legit, pollsters still are afraid to give MSU any poll love.
It could really help Wisconsin's BCS chances if Michigan State stumbles and Wisconsin wins out.
Nebraska
8 of 10
Nebraska: 7-2 (4-1, 2nd in Legends)
BCS Ranking: NR
What a difference a few weeks can make. Just when it appeared as if Nebraska was on the cusp of collapsing—and possibly losing its head coach—the Cornhuskers have regrouped in time to control their own destiny in the race for a Big Ten title.
Worst-Case Scenario
Nebraska has three games remaining, but the essence of success lies in this week's contest against Legends Division leader Michigan State in Lincoln. Should Nebraska lose that game, it not only functionally ends any shot of a Big Ten title game appearance, it could create room for further doubt among a fanbase that already has questions about a head coach that has never guided Nebraska to fewer than four losses in any given year.
Best-Case Scenario
Beating Michigan State on Saturday will be a good first step. That win would put the Huskers in a first-place tie with the Spartans, and the Huskers will control the tie-breaker. Following that win with victories against Penn State and Iowa will assure Nebraska a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 7.
Unfortunately, with Nebraska still not a part of the latest BCS rankings, it will be next to impossible for the Huskers to make the leap all the way up to No. 16 or higher to earn an at-large invite.
Michigan State
9 of 10
Michigan State: 8-1 (5-0, 1st in Legends)
BCS Ranking: No. 16
"Where's the love?" That has to be the question on the mind of every MSU fan in the nation as the Spartans sit at No. 16 in the latest BCS rankings. The nation's No. 1 overall defense and No. 3 scoring defense is languishing in the computer rankings, despite finally getting a little recognition—although not nearly enough—from the human pollsters.
Worst-Case Scenario
Michigan State might be able to silence some critics by all but clinching the Legends this Saturday with a victory at Nebraska. A win by Nebraska, however, will throw the Cornhuskers into first place and bring Minnesota charging back into the mix.
Throughout its history, Michigan State has had trouble with the "kill shot." The Spartans have the rest of the division on its heels. Slipping up now could cost MSU everything it has worked so hard to accomplish thus far.
Best-Case Scenario
Will the Spartans finally get the recognition from the BCS it has been denied for so long? Regardless of your feelings about Sparty, there's little question that MSU was perhaps unfairly passed over by the BCS two seasons ago.
Despite beating Michigan and Wisconsin during the regular season and a narrow, three-point loss to the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Sugar Bowl opted to invite Michigan over MSU.
Michigan State clearly won't be passed over in favor of the Wolverines this season, but any loss now (other than a potential loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game) would derail the Spartans' BCS chances this season.
Best-case scenario? Don't leave any room for doubt. Beat Nebraska, beat Northwestern and beat Minnesota.
Ohio State
10 of 10
Ohio State: 9-0 (5-0, 1st in Leaders)
BCS Ranking: No. 3
What does a team have to do in order to get a little love? If you thought Michigan State had reason to be exasperated with its rankings, imagine the frustration felt by the Buckeyes and their crazed cadre of followers.
Despite owning the nation's longest winning streak—20 games—and not having a loss under current head coach Urban Meyer, Ohio State is still on the outside looking in when it comes to the national championship picture.
Worst-Case Scenario
Losing a game, any game.
That might sound a little harsh, but any Ohio State fan will eagerly tell you that the Buckeyes are the greatest thing since fire was discovered by man, and even then only by a close margin. Losing any game for Ohio State sends the entire metropolis of Columbus into a depressed stupor. When that loss will cost their beloved Buckeyes any hopes of earning a (at this point) deserved shot at a national title, the mental health community in Ohio will be working overtime.
It's also possible, technically, for Ohio State to play its way out of the Big Ten title game. Of course, two losses would be required for that. With Illinois, Indiana and Michigan left on the 2013 slate, the chances of two losses now are razor slim.
Best-Case Scenario
We're going to take it a step further here. Ohio State winning seems, at worst, likely. Even begging on the Buckeyes winning a Big Ten title, regardless of the opponent (Michigan State, Nebraska or Minnesota), seems like the most likely outcome at this point.
But what about the BCS and a trip to the National Championship Game? For that, Ohio State will unfortunately need some help in ways completely out of its control. Either Florida State or Alabama will need to lose at some point along the way, so let's take a look at the Seminoles and Crimson Tide.
Florida State has Syracuse, Idaho and Florida left on the schedule, and the Seminoles have already clinched a berth in the ACC title game. There's a four-way jumble at the top of the ACC's Coastal Division to determine FSU's opponent (Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke and Miami all have two conference losses to this point). Who could Florida State lose to among the seven teams mentioned?
Yeah, I don't see it, either.
So, let's move to the "almighty" SEC and the "great and powerful" Alabama. Contrary to what the SEC media lapdogs would have you believe, the SEC is having a pretty bad year. In fact, most years aren't all that great for the SEC.
It's a curious argument to make; a conference has one dominant team and three or four "decent" teams that lose two or three games every season, along with a bunch of doormats, but that means the conference is awesome.
By that logic, the Mountain West and MAC are every bit as powerful as the SEC. Ohio State would be 8-0 playing in a conference full of Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Florida this season, too, so what's the big deal?
Regardless of the reasoning, the SEC has appealed to the "low info voter" of the AP, Harris and Coches' polls, tricking the world into believing the conference is leaps and bounds above the others.
While Alabama is a good football team, this isn't the Crimson Tide of 2012.
Alabama should have beaten a three-loss LSU team by a much larger margin, and less-than-impressive wins against Virginia Tech and Texas A&M should give Tide fans pause.
But thanks to the SEC's creampuff November scheduling, Alabama has Mississippi State and a no-name FCS opponent left before the season-ending Iron Bowl against Auburn.
So how does this work in Ohio State's favor? Let's just put it this way: every Ohio State fan needs to become the world's biggest Auburn fan. If Coach Meyer has any suggestions for Gus Malzahn, he might want to consider a friendly phone call, text message or email, too.
A Crimson Tide loss in the Alabama-Auburn game provides the greatest opportunity for Ohio State to make the leap into the BCS's top two, far beyond anything that is likely to happen elsewhere in the country. It's not only the best-case scenario for Ohio State but probably the Big Ten as a whole.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
