Heisman Watch 2013: Where Top Candidates Stand After Week 11

We're getting to the point in the season where the clouds are opening, the sun is shining and some semblance of clarity is being given to the 2013 Heisman Trophy race.

The top contenders have for the most part been known for weeks, but it's safe to say we can stop any overwrought discussion of the fringe guys. So Mike Evans, Tajh Boyd, Connor Shaw and others, it's been fun but not fun enough. We'll cross those guys out, right along with the Derek Carrs and Melvin Gordons of the college football world who have long since been tossed to the side. 

With teams nearing double-digit games played, the days of a single performance instantly creating a Heisman contender are over. 

What isn't over—and what we saw in Week 11—is a single game completely focusing the discourse on losing the bronze statue. Oregon's loss to Stanford on Thursday and Marcus Mariota's less-than-stellar play in the contest completely shifted the paradigm. After weeks of it seeming like a foregone conclusion that Mariota would become the first Oregon player to ever capture the award, there's a new king in Tallahassee wearing the crown. 

Behind Jameis Winston? Well, there are plenty of questions left to be answered. Johnny Manziel again put up insane stats, Bryce Petty announced his arrival on the national state and AJ McCarron just keeps winning football games.

With that in mind, here is a complete breakdown of where the Heisman race stands as Week 11 draws to a close. 

1. Jameis Winston (QB, Florida State)

Week 11 Stats: 17-of-28 for 159 YDS, 2 TDS and 1 INT in 59-3 win over Wake Forest

Stock Watch: ↑

When it comes to individual success, Winston turned in about as nondescript a performance as we've ever seen from him. Battling indecisiveness in the pocket, some accuracy issues and a surprisingly strong effort from the Wake Forest secondary, Winston turned into a checkdown machine Saturday. He averaged only 5.7 yards per attempt and didn't complete a pass longer than 18 yards.

In a game where Winston seemed destined for a stat-padding tour de force, he fell short. Had Marcus Mariota led Oregon to a victory against Stanford, it would have been exactly the type of disappointment that would create a chasm in the Heisman race.

Guess what? Mariota lost. And, even though the Heisman is supposed to be an individual award, that means Winston has a bayou between he and the rest of the contenders. If the voting were to take place Sunday morning, Winston would run away with the award and become our second straight freshman winner.

The reality of the situation is only two things can keep Winston from holding the bronze statue now: an upset loss or an injury. The Seminoles signal-caller has everything voters look for. He's charismatic, has a pushable narrative (two-sport star resuscitating one of the nation's proudest programs) and a marketable nickname (Famous Jameis). 

Oh, and he's very good at playing football. You don't have to look very hard to draw parallels between Winston and Johnny Manziel, which is amusing considering Johnny Football is probably his biggest competitor at this point.

2. Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M)

Week 11 Stats: 30-of-39 for 446 YDS, 5 TDs and 3 INTs; 14 CAR and 47 YDS in 51-41 win over Mississippi State

Stock Watch: ↑ (kinda)

The Aggies' dreadful defense—otherwise known as the reason they've lost twice this season—will probably prevent Manziel from winning the Heisman in back-to-back seasons. Voters have gotten better in recent years of recognizing individual performance over team accomplishment (Manziel and Robert Griffin III being perfect examples), but there are a ton of factors working against him getting first-place votes. 

It starts with the number you see in the interceptions column. With those three picks Manziel now has 11 on the season, eclipsing his total from 2012 with two road games against Top 25 opponents remaining. Johnny Football's penchant for the spectacular has turned him into a superstar, but it's also put him in position to make some Brett Favrian throws. Without receivers like Evans and Malcome Kennedy, that number probably even ticks a little higher.

And then there's the other stuff. We all know by now that Archie Griffin is the only player to win the Heisman more than once. Decades of precedent are in place that indicates voters will simply not vote for a previous winner...just because. It's inane, ridiculous and indicative of the process' rotten core. Couple that with Manziel's...umm...less than ideal off-the-field reputation, and there will be enough push to hurt his chances. 

And then you take a look at his stats and wonder how someone with those numbers can't win the Heisman. While Manziel eclipsed his interception total on Saturday, his five-touchdown outing took him five touchdowns over his 2012 total for passing TDs. He's not been as effective as a runner, but there's an outside shot that Manziel matches his 47 total touchdowns from a year ago.

In other words, Manziel is your perfect second-place candidate.

His individual performance has probably been the most outstanding of any player this year, but there are enough narratives to his detriment—stupid and largely self-created—that it's hard seeing him taking home the bronze statue. Should Florida State lose in Gainesville or in the ACC Championship Game, though, all bets are suddenly off.

3. Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon)

Week 11 Stats: 20-of-34 for 250 YDS and 2 TDs in 26-20 loss to Stanford

Stock Watch: ↓

Taken as a whole, Mariota's stats don't look all that bad. Throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns against the vaunted Cardinal defense is something few quarterbacks could do. While Mariota lost a fumble inside Stanford territory, it's not like his Heisman competitors are immune to a few mistakes here and there, and the Oregon signal-caller still hasn't thrown a pick this season. 

So, everything is hunky dory, right? Only if you're box score scouting.

For the first three quarters, Mariota was as bad as we've seen him this season. He was inaccurate on critical throws, failed to sense oncoming pressure and his offense failed to record a single point until Stanford had opened a 26-point lead. Playing on a national state in the biggest game of the Ducks season, Mariota failed to come through until it was too late.

The result is Mariota moving from prohibitive Heisman favorite to afterthought. Sportsbook dropped the sophomore dual-threat QB from a minus-140 favorite to capture the bronze statue all the way down to 20-1. Keep in mind that Mariota was 12-1 in August; he's now at worse odds despite having 22 touchdowns, no interceptions, nine rushing touchdowns and a general awesomeness about his game.

In the world of narrative-driven voting, that's all it takes. Mariota is still in the conversation and 20-1 odds are probably too high for him, but we've reached the point where it's probably a two-man race. Everyone else is just competing for the extra free steak dinner that comes along with an invite to New York City.

4. Bryce Petty (QB, Baylor)

Week 11 Stats: 13-of-26 for 204 YDS and 3 TDs; 16 CAR for 45 YDS and 2 TDs in 41-12 win over Oklahoma

Stock Watch: ↑

If there is anyone who can throw a monkey wrench into the expectations party, it's Petty. The Baylor signal-caller was sensational again in Thursday night's win over Oklahoma, totaling five touchdowns in a game many thought the Bears would lose.

Their Cinderella run through the 2013 season has been met with tepid response from the outset. Sure, we all agree Baylor is fun as hell to watch. Coach Art Briles' high-scoring offense can drop 50 in the blink of an eye, has equal effectiveness through the ground and the air and has no qualms about Usain Bolting up the score. 

But it always came with a qualifier: Baylor hasn't "played anyone." Thus the team's run and Petty's Heisman candidacy got shrouded in an overwhelming sense of wait and see. Well, one big victory into their hardest stretch of the season and it seems the Baylor kids will be all right.

And so will Petty. The junior has thrown for 2,657 yards and 21 touchdowns against a lone interception this season while adding eight scores on the ground. Petty isn't nearly as agile as Robert Griffin III, but he does an excellent job of selling the fake on the read-option and keeps the ball enough that defenses have to respect him. 

Lache Seastrunk and Shock Linwood are Baylor's beloved playmakers, but those who understand Briles' offense know just how much both running backs owe their effectiveness to Petty. (This, of course, works the other way around. Because, like, that's what good offensive football is.)

The script for a Petty Heisman is pretty much written. Baylor has to win out, he has to perform well on a weekly basis and Florida State has to lose at least one game. Seastrunk's inability to stay healthy is also an unfortunate boost to his teammate's Heisman stock, as they're less likely to split the "Baylor vote." Teams with multiple contenders can often play themselves out of the conversation, because voters will often refuse to have two players from the same team on their ballot.

With that no longer being the case, look for the "Bryce Petty for Heisman: Why Not?" headlines to come pouring in.

5. AJ McCarron (QB, Alabama)

Week 11 Stats: 14-of-20 for 179 YDS and 3 TDs in 38-17 win over LSU

Stock Watch: ↔

Let's just get it out of the way now: A.J. McCarron will not win the Heisman Trophy. There are no feasible circumstances in which it could or should happen. The players ahead of him on this list have been more outstanding individually, had more spectacular moments and generally been more Heisman-y.

And that's kind of the point. The Crimson Tide's win over LSU played host to a stereotypical McCarron performance if there ever was one. Ahead only three points at halftime, Alabama went to work on the ground, pounding a combination of T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake down the Tigers throats. The running-back duo rushed for 198 yards, accounting for more than half of the Tide's 372 yards.

McCarron? He was left to merely "manage" the game. By manage, of course, I mean to complete 70 percent of his passes, make not even the slightest mistake and mix in three touchdowns—two of short distance and one to O.J. Howard for 52 yards. An overwhelming majority of McCarron's yards came in the first half, a period during which he just so happened to break Alabama's career passing-yards mark.

Three years in, that's basically the McCarron experience in a nutshell. He's the same unflappable kid who vanquished LSU in the 2012 BCS National Championship Game as a sophomore, only two years better. For the season, McCarron has 2,041 yards and 19 touchdowns against three interceptions. Those numbers pale in comparison to even his stats from 2012, where he didn't even finish among the top-10 Heisman vote-getters.

McCarron will wind up in the top 10 this year. Maybe fifth, maybe fourth, maybe eighth. He can probably count himself out of making a trip to New York City in December, unless it's to make a trip with his young lady friend I'm sure you all have heard one or two things about.

But come January? Good luck finding a player on this list you'd rather have under center.

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