Big Surprises in 2009: Hitters

We’re almost a quarter of the way into the season, so I thought it might be about time to comment on some of the big surprises among hitters in 2009.

Brandon Inge:  He’s a player I’ve always kind of liked.  He started his major league career as a catcher, was converted to 3B and quickly put up some of the best defensive numbers for 3Bmen in the AL.  The move from catcher to 3rd almost usually has the opposite effect.  Anyway, he hit his 11th HR today, and has a .933 OPS for the season through yesterday.  This is 140 points above his previous season high for OPS in 2004 (.793), when he was 27 years old.  He’s 32 this year, which is an unusually old age for a career season, especially for a player of his caliber.  I can’t see him sustaining it.  If he is on your fantasy team, trade him the moment his OPS drops below about .880 or .870.

Raul Ibanez:  He hit his 14th HR today, and his OPS was 1.114 through yesterday.  That’s 231 points above his previous season high (.883) in 2002 for Kansas City, one of the better hitters’ parks in baseball.  He’s 37 this year.  Again, I can’t see him sustaining it.  I’d trade him at the Allstar Break.  What’s especially amazing about this level of performance, besides his age, is the fact that this is his first season ever in the NL.  Lack of familiarity usually favors the pitcher.  Makes one think that the AL is still the better league.  However, by the second half, I think the NL scouts will figure out how the AL got Ibanez out.

Christian Guzman:  He’s leading the NL in hitting through today’s game with a .377 batting average.  It’s probably the shallowest .377 in the history of the game, or at least since the start of the lively ball era in 1920.  Because he has little power and has only 2 walks in 130 AB’s, his OPS in only .886.  He had the worst year of his career by far in 2005, hitting only .219; he missed the entire 2006 season with an injury; had an injury-plagued 2007 in which he still managed to hit .328 in only 174 AB’s; and now he’s having a career year at age 31 (he did hit .316 last year, his career high by far).  Very strange.  Guzman has always had a lot of talent, and 31 is the last year in which good players generally might have a peak season.  Also, it’s strange the way it works, but when a player has a year way above or below his career norms, he seems to have a year soon thereafter in which his performance is way below or above his career norms.   The upshot is that his overall performance over the course of his career does not radically change that much when averaging the good and bad years out.  It’s hard for me to believe that a player with a rate of 2 walks in 130 AB’s can hit even .333 over the course of a full season.  Why are NL pitchers throwing him anything in the strikeszone?  At some point, you have to figure that the NL’s pitchers will make an adjustment and Guzman’s batting average will fall.  When that happens, though, is anyone’s guess.

Alberto Callaspo:  He’s the Royals’ everyday 2Bman, and he’s hitting .338, good for 7th in the AL.  He’s 26 this year, and I generally don’t think that anyone who hits really well in a year in which he is 27 or younger really counts as a surprise, since young players can improve dramatically, especially as they approach age 27.  I included him only because when I saw his name among the AL’s leading hitters, I thought “Who the f*** is this guy?”  In his rookie year last year, he hit .305 in 213 AB’s for the Royals.  Before that, he had some big years in the D-Back’s system, including hitting .337 in 490 AB’s in AAA (Tucson, PCL — good place to hit) in 2006 and .341 in 226 ABs (same place).  Kauffman Stadium is a great place to hit, so Callaspo may put up some big numbers the next couple of seasons.

Nick Johnson:  He’s always been a good hitter when healthy, but what is surprising about his season is that, like Guzman and his season, Johnson missed all of 2007 and played a very limited amount in 2008.  In baseball history, having your best season after missing a full season during the peak years of your career (age 26-31) is extraordinarily rare.  The fact that Johnson and Guzman are playing so well this year probably says a great deal about the improved rehabilitation methods and better conditioning programs now in use.

Russell Branyan:  It’s not surprising that Branyan is hitting for power; he’s always had power.  What is surprising is that he’s hitting .305.  Branyon’s previous career high in any season in which he has had at least 100 AB’s is .257 (2005 in 202 AB’s for the Brewers).  He’s 33 this year, so one has to consider his .300+ batting average a fluke.  He  may still hit for power and draw walks, but I wouldn’t bet on Branyan hitting .300 or even .280 come year’s end.

Victor Martinez:  He’s hitting an even .400 through today’s game, and we all know he won’t be hitting .400 come season’s end.  I would bet that he won’t be hitting .350 by season’s end.  He definitely deserves to be last on this list, however, because unlike most of the others, he’s always been a good hitter.  He’s 30 this year, which is as good an age as any for a great player to have a career year.