Brian Sabean's Looking Smarter with Each Barry Zito Start

OK, so it wasn't a nine-inning complete game since the San Francisco Giants could only muster one run in support of Barry Zito's latest gem. So what?

A complete game is a complete game.

It's not Zito's fault his offense couldn't fight back from two solo home runs by using its full complement of 27 outs. The southpaw took the ball every inning he could and twirled it like the former Cy Young winner he is.

And it's not the first time in 2009.

Although you might be surprised based on his season's results thus far.

In eight starts, Zito has thrown 49.2 innings while notching a 1-4 record, a 3.62 earned-run average, 32 strikeouts against 19 walks, four home runs allowed (two last night), a 1.29 WHIP, and a .330 opponent on-base percentage.

Those numbers aren't incredible, and the record is bad, but they belie Zito's '09 campaign.

Buoyed by a new, more rigorous offseason workout program courtesy of Brian Wilson, the lefty with a looping deuce has been fantastic while being this year's Matt Cain—scintillating starts wasted by zero run support.

Last night was a perfect example—he gave up solo shots to Scott Hairston and Nick Hundley (both with two outs) while allowing only seven other base runners, threw eight solid innings, and ate a loss because the Gents plated a single run while playing horrendous small ball (so many wasted outs).

The perfect example, but hardly the only one.

Aside from his first two assignments of the year, each Zito start is an exemplar of his bad luck. Look at what he's done after the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers hung 10 runs on him in his first nine frames of '09:

Start No. 3 against SDP—7 IP, 6 hits, 0 ER, 0 walks, 5 Ks, ND (SF wins 1-0)

Start No. 4 against LAD—6.1 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 3 walks, 2 Ks, 1 HR, ND (SF wins 5-4)

Start No. 5 against COL—7 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 1 walk, 4 Ks, ND (SF wins 1-0)

Start No. 6 against LAD—6 IP, 8 hits, 1 ER, 2 walks, 5 Ks, W (SF wins 3-1)

Start No. 7 against WAS—6.1 IP, 8 hits, 4 ER, 3 walks, 5 Ks, L (SF loses 6-3)

Start No. 8 against SDP—8 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 4 walks, 3 Ks, 2 HRs, L (SF loses 2-1)

Even those lines understate how well Zito's been hurling.

In his seventh start against the Washington Nationals, Zito had given up only a single earned run through six before tiring in his final frame. Then, after getting pulled, the Giants bullpen allowed two of his inherited runners to score on a bloop single that would've been a harmless third out 90 percent of the time.

In his fourth start, against the Bums, Zito actually threw six scoreless frames before tiring and allowing a two-run shot to Casey Blake. And, again, the SF 'pen ushered one of his inherited runners to the plate.

In both games, Barry Zito threw tremendously, and a stronger offense would've gotten him the hook with his stellar line intact. Nevertheless, the lines he took home were none too shabby.

Add them all up, and you'll see what Giants fans have seen—that Zito allowed 10 earned runs in his first two starts covering nine innings (10.00 ERA) and has allowed, yep, 10 earned runs in his last six starts covering 40.2 innings (2.21 ERA).

I'd say that's a turnaround.

Which brings me to his famous contract, all seven years and $126 million of it.

Clearly, six consecutive good performances do not justify such a bloated deal.

In truth, nothing can—handing such an outrageous package to a 28-year-old pitcher coming off a career year would make little sense, and Zito was coming off his fourth straight year in decline. No, the deal will never look astute in hindsight because it didn't make too much sense at the time.

Nor did Zito do anything to change perceptions of the contract in his first couple years in San Francisco, laboring under its considerable weight. He lost 30 of 51 decisions (65 starts) while posting an ERA around five and even got banished to the 'pen at one point.

Give the guy credit, though; Zito never hung his head and cued the violins. He rededicated himself and worked through his struggles to emerge a better person on the other side.

San Francisco, too, is a better team for it.

With Jonathan Sanchez fighting himself badly and Randy Johnson struggling to recapture his consistency, the Orange and Black could be in real trouble if not for Zito's finger in the dike.

At $18 mil per year, it's an expensive finger and inefficient use of resources. Still, with Zito rediscovering his dominant form, perhaps it's time to ease off GM Brian Sabean and this "worst contract of all time" nonsense.

I said it at the time, and I'll repeat it here—Zito's wasn't even the MLB's worst contract inked that year.

Remember, the Bums and Ned Colletti handed Jason Schmidt a three-year, $47 million piece of paper despite Schmidt's very recent history of very serious arm issues. Also remember, Colletti was fresh off his stint as assistant general manager for our beloved SF Giants.

That would be Schmidt's old team, the one painfully familiar with his injury woes.

Everyone ignored the deal because it was for "only" three years and "only" $47 mil. Next to the albatross carried by SF and Zito, it was barely even a blip on the radar.

But Giant fans knew LA had just shelled out almost $50 million for a broken pony. I love the guy because he was one of the best Giant pitchers of my tenure as a fan, but we knew Schmidthead was D-O-N-E as the pitcher he once could be.

Colletti should've known as well. Yet he pulled the trigger anyway.

Congratulations.

For those $47 million, the Dodgers have gotten six starts, one win, and an ERA over six. If you think Schmidt will return this year—the final one of the contract—and do anything to salvage the deal, think again.

Schmidt might eventually return to form, but, at 36, the smart money's not on the big fella. Sad but true—and it's certainly not going to happen in '09.

So let me ask you, discerning reader, which looks smarter—paying $126 million for seven years of mediocrity?

Or paying $47 million for three years of nothing?

Obviously, even the thought of putting pen to such paper requires a serious pair of Bad Idea Jeans.

But in the relative world of Major League Baseball deals, maybe Brian Sabean isn't so stupid, after all.

**www.pva.org**