How the Blue Jays-Yankees Series Will Serve as a Litmus Test for Toronto

A day or two ago, another writer was ready to declare the Blue Jays the American League champs with their depth and balance. He pointedly did so before the beginning of the series against the Yankees in order not be a Johnny come lately. Give the guy credit for guts. And if the Blue Jays sweep, he'll look like a genius.

I wasn't willing to go quite that far, but conceded to him that the current series would be a litmus test. He had intuitively appealing "strength of schedule" arguments; that Toronto had done well against a slew of teams west of the Appalachians except for the Kansas City Royals, another "surprise" division leader.

But games against division rivals are twice as important as games outside the division, because they affect both your standing and the rival's standing.

If the Blue Jays sweep, they knock the Yankees way back, and maintain or increase their lead over the Red Sox. If the Yankees sweep (which they now can't), it's back to a three way race in the division, with the Red Sox possibly pulling ahead.

A good showing in this series would eliminate any doubts about the Blue Jays' ability to stand up to the Yankees, remove most doubts about their durability against the similarly situated (to the Yankees) Rays, and reduce doubts about the Blue Jays vis-a-vis the Red Sox.

I first made this point before a Pittsburgh-Milwaukee series, when the Pirates were 11-7, second in their division against the then fifth-place Brewers. The Pirates failed the litmus test with an 0-3 showing, suggesting a sub-.500 performance, even though they were 11-10 coming out of the series. This judgment has subsequently been vindicated.

Actually, the Pirates failed my test last year when they traded Jose Bautista for an "unknown," (who turned out to be good-performing Robinzon Diaz).

Bautista is an important reason for the Blue Jays' success. So are Kevin Millar, Aaron Hill, Marco Scutaro, and Rod Barajas, a veritable infield of  "breakout" players (relatively to their earlier performances) this season. (And I consider Bautista a litmus test of Toronto's management, who acquired all of these players save Hill within the past year or two).

Statistics suggest that not all, or even a majority, of these players will maintain their breakouts. Hopefully, enough of them will to enable the Blue Jays to remain a force in the strong American League East.

This was the team, after all, that went 86-76 for a .531 win percentage, in 2008, before "everyone's" break out. That would have been enough to win the National League West, and place second or third in three other divisions.

So what do the possible outcomes of the current series portend for the Blue Jays?

3-0 The Blue Jays are favorites to win the division, even over the Boston Red Sox.

2-1 The season series between the Blue Jays and the Red Sox will determine who wins the division and who gets the wild card.

1-2 More like a wild card contender.

Last night's victory ruled out a 0-3 result, and the possibility that the Blue Jays weren't so special after all.