UFC Fight Night 26 Predictions You Can Take to the Bank

It's the start of a new era. Or the continuation of the older era. Or perhaps even an era where you can no longer catch free fights on your satellite or cable provider.

The beginning of Fox Sports 1 will not be without growing pains. Despite a gigantic press push, Fox still has still not signed carriage deals with Dish Network, DirecTV or a number of the nation's largest cable networks. This may or may not be the case come Saturday morning, as these deals are often brokered in the most last-minute way possible.

But let's pretend, if only for a moment, that we'll all be fat and happy on Saturday night, that we'll all get Fox Sports 1 streamed into our magical television box. What should we expect? What should we look for? And how, pray tell, do we optimize our bankroll and make the most money we possibly can?

That's what I'm here for. And I'll go ahead and warn you that, if you lose, I'm not responsible. But if you win by using my picks, I'm entirely responsible. 

Got it? Great. Let's get started. 

Mauricio Rua +120 vs. Chael Sonnen -140

The old-school mixed martial arts fan in me says, "Hey look, Shogun is fighting! That means someone is getting beat down!" 

But then, I start to think about how this is 2013 and remind myself that the chances of the old Shogun returning are dwindling fast. At the same time, I remember that Rua has yet to win a fight by decision since joining the UFC. Every fight he's won since coming over from PRIDE has been by TKO. 

Which is to say, if Rua wins the fight on Saturday night, he's probably going to do so as a result of punching Sonnen in the face a bunch of times. He could submit Sonnen; that's happened before, obviously. And if Sonnen wins, it will happen by decision. These are the results that history indicates.

Because of that, I can't recommend going with your standard winner/loser play on this one. If you're a believer in Rua, then you get better value from going with a prop on Rua winning by TKO/KO at +250 than by simply playing the +120 odds on a Rua win.

But the smart money here goes on Sonnen by decision, either as a prop or straight up.

There's probably value in Sonnen up to -200 or so at the very least, because I simply cannot see a way for Rua to win this fight outside of a knockout. And while that is a possibility, the chances of it happening are much, much slimmer than that of Sonnen simply taking Rua to the ground and working in his guard all the way to a decision. Rua's takedown defense is a paltry 34 percent; that isn't good, and Sonnen has made easy work of men with much better percentages. 

Sonnen has also undergone a transformation in his training camp and style. No longer confined to Oregon, where he essentially served as his own master and trained near the comfort of his own home, Sonnen is now implanted at Reign Training Center in Southern California, where he's grueling under the watchful eye of an excellent coach in Mark Munoz. 

Point being, this will be the best Sonnen you've seen in years, and he's likely going to mow through Rua with ease. That doesn't mean he'll finish him; only that Sonnen will do what he does best.

Alistair Overeem -190 vs. Travis Browne +165

If you ask me, this is the most intriguing fight on the entire FS1/Fight Night 26/Whatever We're Calling It card. And that's only the case because of the severe beating and humiliation Alistair Overeem suffered at the hands of Antonio Silva the last time he stepped in the cage.

I'll never forget that night. Overeem turned the Mandalay Bay Events Center into his own personal Dance Dance Revolution. I'd never seen a fighter so confident. And then, of course, the Overeem dance party smile was turned upside down by Silva punching him in the mouth and then screaming in the most terrifying post-fight scene of all time.

That lasting visual, of Silva standing over the defeated Dance Party Overeem, is the sole reason why Ubereem isn't a bigger favorite here. Well, that and the lingering questions about how he may have taken steroids earlier in his career but cannot do so anymore.

Put simply, this is a terrible matchup for young Travis Browne, who I think is a fine fighter and has a bright future ahead of him in a fairly thin heavyweight division. He will not take Overeem to the canvas, and that is quite literally the only place he will be able to win the fight.

Overeem handles this one. Put some of your dollars on Overeem inside the distance at -155, or just the win straight up at -190.

Urijah Faber -280 vs. Yuri Alcantara +240

Yuri Alcantara (or Al-Contra, which makes me think of the Contra Code) is a great addition to the UFC's bantamweight division.

The only problem? Urijah Faber eats great additions to the bantamweight division alive.

So many people complain that Faber is being handed an easy road back to the title, and that he's only been given these fights because the UFC wants him to be the champion. He's much more marketable, you see, and a rematch between Faber and Dominick Cruz (whenever the champion returns in 2019) is a much easier sell than Cruz vs. Renan Barao.

That may be true. But it's also not true. Faber is just that good, and he's been around so long that we take him for granted. We remember only the losses to champions in championship fights, but we forget about the times he's made very good fighters look like rank amateurs.

But then, just as he starts to fade from our memories, Faber comes back and reminds us. That's what you can look forward to on Saturday night: Faber reminding you just how good he actually is. And he'll do so by submission, by the way, just because folks think it's impossible for him to submit Alcantara.

Matt Brown -160 vs. Mike Pyle +130

You know who wins this fight? WE DO. All of us watching at home. We are the winners.

Because this is a fight between two men. Two men, one with terrible hair and the other with a great beard. Two manly men who go in the cage to fight dudes. If the Gladiator from the old UFC opening were still around (may he rest in peace), he'd be positively thrilled by the prospect of Matt Brown vs. Mike Pyle.

Pyle has been on a fantastic career surge of late, and I'm tempted to tell you that putting some money on the dawg is a good play here. But man, Brown's late-career surge may be even more impressive, especially when you consider he's already won five in a row and has wrecked two bright welterweight prospects in Stephen Thompson and Jordan Mein.

My advice? Save your money. Don't wager anything on this fight. Put your money back in your wallet and enjoy this fight for what it is: a clash between two veterans, two men who will put on a show of fisticuffs for your enjoyment.

Joe Lauzon -265 vs. Michael Johnson +185

As much as I like Joe Lauzon, and as much as I like the idea of Lauzon fighting in Boston, I can't shake the feeling that Michael Johnson is going to make this a very disappointing night for Lauzon.

It's the law of averages. The last time Lauzon fought in Boston, he made Gabe Ruediger eat his cake and then some. I feel like the MMA gods will grant you one superb performance in front of your hometown, but after that? You're on your own.

This is obviously not sound advice. What we have here is a fight placed on the main card because it will likely be exciting, so let's play off that: Wait until the props for Fight of the Night come out, and then put some money on Lauzon/Johnson taking home the award.