NBA Teams Poised to Make the Biggest Leap During 2013-14 Season

How high is up for James Harden's Houston Rockets?

With most of the rich getting richer in the NBA, Houston's fate is inextricably linked to a web of elite contenders who all spent the summer maneuvering in their own special ways. Most of those contenders will wind up more or less where they did last season. The Rockets are unique insofar as they—and perhaps they alone—have gone from the margins of the 2013 postseason to one of the 2014 playoffs' most intriguing presumed participants.

Count the Golden State Warriors and Brooklyn Nets as much-improved threats to the NBA establishment, and keep an eye out for breakout seasons from the Cleveland Cavaliers or—gasp—Detroit Pistons.

But the most improved team of all? Probably not who you'd expect.

Honorable Mention: Los Angeles Lakers

No, it's not that I think Nick Young or Jordan Farmar will make one bit of difference. And it's not that I completely buy into Mike D'Antoni's pitch that his system will work out all that much better this time. It's true that not having Dwight Howard around should make it easier for Los Angeles to space the floor more consistently. Maybe shooters like Young and Farmar will benefit.

But it's not Howard's absence from the floor that will help Los Angeles—it's his absence from the locker room, the headlines and the back of every other Laker's mind. That's where this team's hope lies: not in better pieces, but in better peace of mind.

To be sure, there will be no addition by subtraction in X and O terms. No amount of floor spacing will change the fact that the Lakers defense will be horrible. It was average at best when accounting for pace last season, and that was with a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate wandering the paint.

A backcourt frequented by Steve Nash and Nick Young won't help. Nor will Metta World Peace's absence.

Don't get me wrong. Given the resources and cap inflexibility with which Mitch Kupchak had to work, he made a pretty nice haul. There are worse centers than Chris Kaman, and maybe Wesley Johnson will finally do something.

So how much better could the Lakers be? Will they take a step back instead?

I'm optimistic for two reasons. First, Kobe Bryant will be on a mission. He may start slow, but he will end strong. Even if L.A. doesn't improve its regular-season record significantly (or at all), a healthy and determined Bryant makes this an entirely different playoff team.

Second, while defense will ultimately be this team's downfall, it does have a chance to score a lot of points. Pau Gasol will be instrumental both to the ball movement D'Antoni envisions and producing some of those points himself. We could very well see an uptick in his usage and overall centrality to the game plan.

Howard won't be clamoring for post touches this time around.

10. Washington Wizards

John Wall, all year long. That is all you need to know.

The intriguing thing about the Washington Wizards, though, is that they are really just a trade away from being a very serious threat to make a first-round appearance in the 2014 playoffs—however brief. And they have the assets to make something happen.

Contracts belonging to Emeka Okafor ($14.5 million) and Trevor Ariza ($7.7 million) both expire after the season. Either could be an attractive short-term rental for a contender or a means of clearing cap space for someone looking to make changes.

To raise the stakes, Washington could also package one of those contracts with some of its young prospects. They range in value from lower-end projects like Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin to the higher ceiling of Jan Vesely, or potentially even 2013 first-rounder Otto Porter Jr.

Throw in a draft pick or two, and general manager Ernie Grunfeld could probably get some teams on the phone.

In the interest of winning now, Bradley Beal is functionally as untouchable as John Wall. It would be unwise to break them up while they're still learning how to share the court and make one another better. The trick would be adding a third, relatively young star to the wing or painted area, ideally one who's fine with this being Wall's team forever and ever.

Even if nothing especially enticing comes to fruition on the trade front, this is still a much better team simply by virtue of Wall's presence (and potentially, his improvement). Washington was 24-25 with Wall playing last season and just 5-28 without him.

That's ridiculous.

With a little growth from young guys like Beal, an injury-free run for the vets and whatever Porter can give them as a rookie, this team is solid as is. Maybe not playoff solid, but much closer to .500 than last season's record will project.

9. Portland Trail Blazers

When they're not keeping it local and organic, Portlanders occasionally bring in some outside help. None figures to be more helpful this season than 10-year veteran Mo Williams. His proven abilities to score and pass instantly make the Trail Blazers' bench worth noticing.

But the in-house developments will count for something too. Damian Lillard's production may never improve significantly upon his eye-opening Rookie of the Year campaign. Though he'll make better decisions and probably more of his shots, Lillard turned 23 in July—making him an old man by sophomore standards. Portland drafted a product who was already fairly polished, a senior from Weber State who'd spent plenty of time shooting.

Running an offense means more than shooting—especially at the NBA level—and that's where Lillard's continued evolution will yield most of its dividends. He'll be smarter and sharper, and an offense that hovered around the middle of the pack should be on its way to greater respectability.

A lot of good that will do Portland without some semblance of defense.

The Blazers ranked next to last in field-goal percentage allowed, which is a bit odd when you think about it. Maybe Lillard has some things to learn, but Wesley Matthews is a solid defender, and Nic Batum's arms go on forever.

There were at least two contributing factors.

First, Portland didn't have a rim protector. Despite LaMarcus Aldridge's size and his ostensibly useful 1.2 blocks per game (last season), he averaged just 1.57 blocks per 48 minutes, only slightly ahead of San Antonio's Tiago Splitter. To put that in perspective, a more defensively inclined center like Joakim Noah blocked 2.79 shots per 48 minutes. JaVale McGee led the league with 5.26.

None of that means Aldridge is a horrible defender. There's a lot more to interior defense than blocking shots. But better looks at the basket have certainly contributed to opponents' efficiency.

Second, while Mo Williams, Dorell Wright and Earl Watson constitute vast improvements over last season's bench, this still isn't a second unit you can count on. This is the kind of fragile ecosystem an injury or two could really throw out of whack. 

Blazers fans will quickly remind you that Robin Lopez and Thomas Robinson will help in both the depth and defense departments. They're also hoping Meyers Leonard makes strides. In other words, the Blazers are relying on too many maybes to be proclaimed a playoff darling just yet.

Five wins ahead of last season, though? Easy.

8. Golden State Warriors

All things being equal, signing Andre Iguodala was big.

He's one of the few who excels as a playmaker, defender and wing scorer—one of still fewer to do so with a strong, 6'6" frame. That's a lethal combination in any uniform, but it's especially valuable to a Golden State Warriors wing that lost something to youth and mixed defensive results last season.

All things aren't entirely equal, though. It's hard to measure the opportunity cost of Harrison Barnes' decreased playing time because we won't really know what we have until he gets more of that playing time. He certainly made the most of it in those semifinals.

It's similarly difficult to compare—at least for now—what Iggy adds with what's subtracted by the exit of Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry. When all the dust settles, though, this is a team that has aged considerably overnight and done so in the best possible way.

Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will be all the wiser after pushing the San Antonio Spurs six games. Iguodala and backup center Jermaine O'Neal will infuse some wisdom of their own.

The Warriors' regular-season record probably won't dwarf 2012-13's 47 wins, but we could be looking at an altogether different beast in the playoffs.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

I know there are going to be Minnesota Timberwolves fans who think this is an unforgivably low ranking. So let me say in advance: I've been to the Twin Cities several times, and I'm a big fan of literally everything but that gigantic mall.

I want to like this team's chances, especially after a quietly brilliant summer that perhaps solved both urgent (Kevin Martin) and long-term (Shabazz Muhammad) needs on a wing that had some serious needs.

Coming off one literally painstaking attempt after another just to field enough guys for an eight-man rotation, it's also inevitable that Minnesota will be better by virtue of health alone. Minnesota still managed to win 31 games last season despite just 18 games from Kevin Love, but questions will remain about whether there's enough of a supporting cast even when everybody's at full strength.

And that assumes we agree about how much (and what kind) of a supporting cast Love needs in the first place.

Ricky Rubio's a lot of fun to watch, but he's also just good enough to infuriate you that he isn't better. He still turns the ball over too much, which could be forgiven in isolation. Rubio's numbers aren't all that far off Rajon Rondo's. But he's one of those Manu Ginobili-like conundrums where every touch feels like a high-risk, high-reward game of Russian roulette. The fact that that may or may not be a compliment is exactly what should concern you.

The other problem is defense.

Having Corey Brewer around will be great, but he's probably not an upgrade over Andrei Kirilenko. And a defensive specialist or two won't magically make Love, Rubio and Martin fantastic defenders.

The good news is there's now enough talent to offset some of those liabilities. Those liabilities may even resolve themselves as this young nucleus keeps learning and working together.

But they're still learning and doing so amidst unknowns, like how Derrick Williams plays with Love back in the fold and forward Chase Budinger now signed for up to three years. Without a better handle on how some of these pieces grow and come together, the safe guess is Minnesota wins 40 games this season (maybe 42).

6. Cleveland Cavaliers

I believe in Andrew Bynum this time, even though I know I probably shouldn't.

Fortunately, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a few sure things too.

Kyrie Irving is going to somehow get even better and complicate our point guard rankings even more. Anderson Varejao will team with Bynum, Tristan Thompson and Anthony Bennett to form a formidable front line. And while Cleveland's wing isn't adorned by stars, there's some length and athleticism that should play well defensively with Earl Clark joining Alonzo Gee and C.J. Miles.

The kicker this summer, though, was snagging Jarrett Jack, the veteran guard who was so instrumental to the Golden State Warriors' success. He's an ideal sixth man for teams with good scorers handling the ball (Stephen Curry, Irving). He can relieve the point guard, but he's at his best playing with him at the same time in a quick, dynamic backcourt.

The Cavaliers are also beginning to reach that stage collectively where continuity should pay off. It will be Dion Waiters' second season next to Irving and Thompson's third. We'll really start to know who these Cavs are soon enough, for better or worse.

With Kyrie around, I'm guessing probably for better.

5. Houston Rockets

Sometimes I think the Houston Rockets' metric-savvy front office should do a little less work and watch a little more TV.

Statisticians or otherwise numerically inclined gurus have done wonders crafting ever-new metric tools for assessing hard-to-quantify things like defense. But as far as I'm aware, there remains no way to quantify the impact of a guy constantly complaining.

He wanted more touches back in 2009 with Orlando, and he wanted more touches last season too. Once the 2012-13 season was mercifully swept under the carpet in the first round, Howard also reportedly felt a tad unloved, according to ESPNLosAngeles.com's Dave McMenamin:

"

According to sources with knowledge of the situation, part of the discussion between Howard and Kupchak centered around Howard's frustration with (Mike) D'Antoni -- particularly how the center felt marginalized as the coach looked to (Kobe) Bryant and Steve Nash for leadership and suggestions and discounted Howard's voice.

"

Hmm, why might that be? Why would D'Antoni be principally interested in Bryant and Nash's combined 34 years of brilliantly executed NBA experience? Why would he be so quick to discount the voice of "reason," Skittles and marginally entertaining imitations?

Kevin McHale won't have much choice but to listen, at least until Howard chooses his replacement.

Give Howard credit, though. His immense talent turns the world around him into a sycophantic aim to please at all costs. It baited the Orlando Magic into an ill-conceived series of win-now transactions, and it could have been even more problematic in Los Angeles were the franchise more inclined to acquiesce to Howard's grievances (e.g. of the coaching or Kobe varieties).

This isn't about comparing the "eye test" with Morey's metrics. It's about using the sniff test and sizing up whether this is really the kind of superstar you want to build around.

In the final analysis, the Rockets clearly got better. They'll have an exceptionally well-defended basket and lots of different ways to get the ball in the paint offensively.

Yet they also have a guy none of the L.A. Lakers ever seemed to really like. The Rockets' season could very plausibly vindicate an intricate experiment in super-team-building, but it could also serve as a landmark reminder that there's no substitute for chemistry on and off the floor.

4. Brooklyn Nets

The Brooklyn Nets may well show up to the 2014 playoffs as the No. 4 seed once again. They may even do so on account of another 49-win campaign.

When they get to those playoffs, though, this instantly becomes one of those teams that—regardless of how good it really is (or isn't)—can win on any given night. Brooklyn got more than a talented core from the Boston Celtics; it got heady, motivated players to whom you can entrust the rock when games are on the line. The Nets got a three-pronged jolt of postseason mojo.

It would, however, be an overeager mistake to lump this team in with Miami, especially for the first 82 games.

A number of old horses still have to learn each other's tricks before anything really starts clicking. It should take a couple of months before that happens in earnest, and the results hitherto could be a little ugly. With Jason Kidd also gathering his bearings, a little patience would behoove us all. And a little patience is probably all they will get.

When you spend this kind of money on veterans to win a title, and when those veterans are already talking about winning that title, expectations become fair game. That's the simplicity of being the San Antonio Spurs, Indiana Pacers or Memphis Grizzlies. It's virtually impossible for expectations to get too far out in front of them, and it's typically the other way around.

If this locker room does a better job of coping with the ups and downs than the Lakers did last season, the final product could make for the most competitive Eastern Conference semifinals bracket in recent memory.

There are a couple of reasons Brooklyn isn't higher on the list. Even the most optimistic of Nets fans has to be worried about Kevin Garnett and/or Paul Pierce breaking down, even if only partially. This roster stops just short of being really, really old. Injuries aren't an inevitability, but they're a greater risk for Brooklyn than for many.

As well, the notion that this is suddenly an elite defensive team is flawed. Brooklyn struggled to get back in transition defense last season, ranking 18th in fast-break points allowed despite slowing games down to a glacial pace. That happened because when games did momentarily turn into a track meet, the Nets didn't do much about it, ranking 25th in opponents' fast-break efficiency.

Garnett and Andrei Kirilenko should run the floor well enough (though KG less so these days), but the defensive concerns have more to do with everyone else following suit. One or two guys getting back on defense doesn't necessarily make for superior numbers.

For all Brooklyn's talent, the important wins will still come down to effort.

3. Detroit Pistons

Deeeee-troit baaasketball!

For the first time in a long time, that won't sound ironic.

But it could sound a bit presumptuous. The Pistons will collect more than the 29 wins they stumbled upon last season, but this season is still just a first step toward whatever Joe Dumars had in mind. There's a lot of maturation yet to happen on this roster, including among veteran pieces like Rodney Stuckey and newly signed Josh Smith.

The big moves were solid.

You can't complain about giving big money to Smith given the alternatives, and Brandon Jennings—though flawed—is still on the verge of something pretty cool. There are probably some smaller moves that still need to happen, to get the mix of role players just right and ensure it fits with the emerging young core.

The real stories next season, though, may be the draft and Chauncey Billups. The former produced eighth overall pick Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and the latter is the perfect guy to bring Caldwell-Pope and the rest of Detroit's youngsters along, particularly Jennings.

This season the youth movement in Detroit finally starts paying off to the tune of 40 wins. It'll be a quick first round, but this should still be a season of welcome accomplishments for the Pistons and new coach Maurice Cheeks.

2. New Orleans Pelicans

Admittedly, I was a little stumped when the New Orleans Pelicans signed Tyreke Evans, but he says he's fine with playing at small forward, and maybe he'll have more luck with it this time. The Kings liked to put smaller guards around Evans too, especially when Isaiah Thomas' emergence forced him onto the court alongside Evans and Marcus Thornton.

The fact that Jrue Holiday is so long and so content to catch and shoot could make this all work. At times, Evans may be a point guard in a small forward's body, while Holiday's the small forward in a point guard's body. If that sounds a little too Freaky Friday for you, the important takeaway is that whatever we've been told about these guys' traditional positions, there could be enough length and versatility to make it work.

Regardless of how well it works, the Pelicans are much improved. Even if you believe Greivis Vasquez was a halfway decent approximation of Holiday himself, New Orleans still adds a promising playmaker in Evans, replete with former Rookie of the Year credentials.

With Anthony Davis another year wiser, the Pelicans have assembled a more than respectable starting lineup overnight, at least good enough to approach (and potentially surpass) that 40-win mark this time around.

Unfortunately, the limit for New Orleans falls somewhere significantly short of the sky. Monty Williams' second unit just isn't very good, and it probably won't be until Austin Rivers does better than this.

1. Chicago Bulls

How much better can the Chicago Bulls be? They were the No. 5 seed in 2012-13, rattling off a decent-enough 45-37 record. But this is a team that finished with 50 wins in 66 games in 2011-12 and 62 the year before that.

That's the Derrick Rose difference, ladies and gentlemen.

A healthy, one-of-a-kind, MVP-caliber point guard who can take games over was a lot to go without last season, even with Nate Robinson around to keep things interesting.

In fairness, it's hard to predict exactly how this club turns out. Some faces have changed since the last time Rose took the floor, but there hasn't been a substantial drop-off in talent. You could argue the 2010-11 edition had a deeper bench and a couple of more defenders, but it's harder to demonstrate a clear, net advantage over this group.

It would be nice having Omer Asik around, but head coach Tom Thibodeau still has a wealth of valuable role players at his disposal. Kirk Hinrich gets to be a backup all of a sudden, allowing him to focus more exclusively on defending the perimeter and looking for his shot. Mike Dunleavy is probably an upgrade over Marco Belinelli, at least on account of his veteran aptitude.

And of course, the big difference nowadays is that Jimmy Butler can flat-out play.

The key to it all is health—not just Rose's, which should be fine, but guys like Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. They're every bit as essential as Rose in the grand scheme if you're talking about a title. Without the complementary scoring and defensive presence, Chicago would stumble once again—however admirably.

With a change of luck, though, this is a 60-win team that could make the Miami Heat sweat a little.