Predicting NBA Stat Leaders for Every Major Category During 2013-14 Season

Now that just about every NBA roster is settled and being filled in with minor pieces, it's time to look ahead and see which players will stand out the most in every major statistical category. 

We'll be talking about points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per game, as well as total three-pointers made and field-goal percentage. Basically, the primary things you hear most media outlets discuss.

Some of the races aren't going to be competitive at all (I'm looking at you, Kevin Love and Stephen Curry), but others will come down to the wire and inspire battles from the first game of the season until the 82nd. 

For each category, I'll be going over the three leading contenders for the stat and then the expected winner, complete with numerical predictions for each player. 

Will your team have anyone featured?

Contenders for the Scoring Title

Contender No. 3: LeBron James

There's no reason for anybody new to enter the top four. 

LeBron James finished the 2012-13 campaign in the No. 4 spot, averaging 26.8 points per game. Expect that to take a slight uptick as Dwyane Wade plays fewer minutes in an effort to remain healthy for the inevitable postseason run. That, coupled with LeBron's improved efficiency (more on that later), is enough for him to boost his scoring output. 

There also really aren't any true contenders for this spot. 

James Harden was fifth in scoring last year, averaging 25.9 points per outing. However, he's now joined by Dwight Howard, who figures to take away a rather significant number of touches. Next was Russell Westbrook, more than two points behind his former teammate. 

LeBron it is. 

Prediction: 27.2 points per game

Contender No. 2: Kobe Bryant

You're crazy if you actually predict a big decline from Kobe Bryant. Just like a fine wine (Vino, anyone?), the Mamba just keeps getting better with age. Offensively, at least. 

Kobe's Achilles may give him trouble at the beginning of the season, but the Los Angeles Lakers are going to be in dire need of scoring output from the shooting guard. Without Dwight patrolling the paint, someone has to pick up the slack, and it isn't going to be Chris Kaman. 

The 2-guard is too beat up to top 30 points per game again, but he's too competitive for his scoring average to resist an increase. 

Prediction: 28.5 points per game

Contender No. 1: Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo Anthony proved last season that the reigning scoring champion doesn't have to finish No. 1 on the next year's leaderboard. Now he'll prove it once more, just in reverse fashion. 

This isn't one of those situations in which I foresee 'Melo taking a step back, so don't get the wrong impression. If anything, the opposite is true, as he should only continue getting more and more efficient. 

However, there are two ways to lose a scoring title. 

The first involves a decline, but the second involves a massive improvement from one of the other leading candidates. You can probably tell based on the prediction below which one applies in 2013-14. 

Prediction: 29.6 points per game

Scoring Champion: Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is tired of finishing in second. 

And while I don't think he was referring to the scoring title on that Sports Illustrated cover, he doesn't have to worry about another No. 2 finish in this race. He'll get back on top and retake the crown that he owned in 2010, 2011 and 2012. 

Durant is only getting more efficient as his career marches on (see: 50/40/90), and now he has even more of an opportunity to stand out as a No. 1 scorer. 

Sure, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka are back, but there's no longer a reliable sixth man on the roster now that Kevin Martin has departed for the Minnesota Timberwolves. And the replacement was found internally, as the Oklahoma City Thunder are now hoping that either Reggie Jackson or Jeremy Lamb steps up to replace the long-gone shooting guard's production. 

Durant will rise to the challenge as well and take on even more offensive responsibility. 

Prediction: 31.0 points per game

Contenders for Rebounding Title

Contender No. 3: DeMarcus Cousins

This is one of the absolute hardest spots to earn, and it could realistically go to any player on a long list. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Zach Randolph, Omer Asik, David Lee, Al Horford, Larry Sanders, Tristan Thompson, Al Jefferson or Kenneth Faried work his way into the top four. 

But the spot goes to DeMarcus Cousins, who still has a stranglehold over the starting center spot with the Sacramento Kings. 

Cousins averaged 9.9 rebounds per game in 2012-13, down from 11.0 the year before.

The discrepancy can be attributed to his weaker performance on the offensive glass. Expect that to change now that the Kings have a roster conducive to more up-tempo basketball, as someone needs to start the fast break with an on-target outlet pass. 

Prediction: 10.4 rebounds per game

Contender No. 2: Dwight Howard

Only one thing is holding Dwight Howard back from the rebounding crown: Omer Asik. 

While playing for different teams, Dwight and Asik averaged 12.4 and 11.7 rebounds per contest, respectively. Well, what happens now that they're playing together?

Both numbers are bound to decline, though it's Asik who will cede more minutes in this situation. Howard will still be playing the vast majority of the available minutes at center, but Asik's occasional presence at power forward will eat away enough of the opportunities that a decline in boards per game is the inevitable result. 

Prediction: 11.0 rebounds per game

Contender No. 1: Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic was a glass-eating monster throughout his second season with the Orlando Magic. 

After averaging only 4.8 rebounds per game as a rookie out of USC, he almost tripled that output to 11.9. Now he's set to increase it once more, though not quite as drastically this time around. 

There simply isn't anyone to steal away too many minutes from him, and the Magic have no reason to do anything other than let him learn on the job. He'll continue his ascent up the rankings of centers, and his work on the boards is a major factor in the rise.  

Prediction: 12.4 rebounds per game

Rebounding Champion: Kevin Love

With Dwight Howard and Omer Asik effectively neutralizing each other in the rebounding race, Kevin Love is the ridiculously easy pick here. 

Technically he would have won the crown in 2013, but he didn't have enough games under his belt thanks to the hand injuries he suffered. Love's 14.0 rebounds per contest were tops in the league, but the 18 games played weren't sufficient for the qualifying process. 

With a full offseason to recover, Love should be fully healthy and ready to clean the glass more often than anyone in the league, just as he did back in 2010-11 when he averaged over 15 rebounds each outing. 

Prediction: 13.5 rebounds per game

Contenders for Assist Title

Contender No. 3: Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday averaged 8.0 assists per game while playing for a Philadelphia 76ers squad that struggled to score points. Other than himself, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, Nick Young and Jason Richardson were the only members of the Sixers to score at least 10 points per game. 

Now he experiences a significant talent upgrade, one that should allow him to cement his place as one of the top passers in the Association. 

So, why a bump of only 0.5 dimes each outing? 

While Tyreke Evans, Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson do make for much better options, they also require the ball more. Holiday's dominance over the rock will decline, and so too will his chances to experience an even bigger jump in assists per game. 

Prediction: 8.5 assists per game

Contender No. 2: Deron Williams

This particular point guard is about to experience a dramatic shift in role. 

While he was an all-around offensive sparkplug during his first full season with the Brooklyn Nets, that will no longer be the case in 2013-14. Deron Williams will remain a potent scoring threat, but he has to play the part of distributor even more now. 

D-Will is absolutely surrounded by offensive talent.

Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Brook Lopez are all capable of dropping 30 points on any given night, and it's the point guard's job to ensure that they're all kept happy while stuffing the point column. 

Prediction: 9.1 assists per game

Contender No. 1: Rajon Rondo

Rajon Rondo's 11.1 assists per game led the NBA in 2012-13, but he's also about to experience a big role change. 

Pierce and KG are both gone, leaving Boston for Brooklyn, and Rondo needs to do even more scoring now. He can't look to feed the ball to his teammates as often, simply because the scoring talent around him has taken a turn for the worse. 

I don't believe that Rondo is a product of the future Hall of Famers. Did they help his career? Certainly. But they are by no means the sole reason he emerged as an All-Star. 

Without them, though, Rondo can't afford to chase assists. He has to become more of a me-first player. 

Prediction: 9.3 assists per game

Assist Champion: Chris Paul

Chris Paul will take advantage of a down year in double-digit assist-racker-uppers and take back over the title he last held in 2008-09. 

The Los Angeles Clippers point guard experienced a decline in dimes when he first joined his new squad—a typical phenomenon when players change teams—and they're back on the rise after jumping from 9.1 to 9.7 per game. 

Expect them to increase even more now that CP3 has more offensive weapons to work with. DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin should presumably be a bit better at scoring as they continue their progressions, but the true key comes on the outside. 

Paul now gets to pass the ball to J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley, which he'll do often in an attempt to spread the court. 

Prediction: 10.3 assists per game

Contenders for Steals Title

Contender No. 3: Mike Conley

Steals per game may seem like a crapshoot, but it's pretty telling when a player lands near the top for a whole bunch of seasons in a row. 

Conley was sixth in 2010-11, averaging 1.8 takeaways each contest. Then he averaged 2.2 per contest over each of the last two years, good enough for a No. 2 and No. 3 finish. 

I expect him to regress to the mean just a bit this year, but not enough that he falls out of the top four. 

Prediction: 2.1 steals per game

Contender No. 2: Paul George

Every year, someone makes a jump up near the top of the leaderboard. 

Monta Ellis came out of nowhere in 2011, then Paul Millsap in 2012. Last year, it was Kemba Walker's turn to make the jump, and this year it's Paul George's. 

The Indiana Pacers superstar asserted himself as a defensive stud in 2012-13, finishing eighth in steals with 1.8 per game. Now it's time for him to make the leap in the glamour stat that unfortunately isn't too telling about overall defensive prowess. 

Prediction: 2.2 steals per game

Contender No. 1: Chris Paul

Death, taxes and Chris Paul being close to or in the lead in steals per game.

Take a look at how he's finished every year since entering the league: 

• 2005-06: No. 3
• 2006-07: Not qualified (would have been No. 8)
• 2007-08: No. 1
• 2008-09: No. 1
• 2009-10: Not qualified (would have been No. 3)
• 2010-11: No. 1
• 2011-12: No. 1
• 2012-13: No. 1

Seems like a safe bet, right?

Prediction: 2.4 steals per game

Steal Champion: Ricky Rubio

It's obviously a bold prediction to have anyone other than Chris Paul in this spot, but Ricky Rubio was this close to beating him out in 2012-13. 

CP3 took the crown by averaging 2.41 steals per game, and Rubio lagged behind at...wait for it...2.40. But here's the thing: Rubio did his bit of thievery in far less playing time, and that figures to change now that he's no longer returning from a torn ACL. 

If you look at steal percentage instead of steals per game, you get the same top two: Paul and Rubio. However, the order is reversed. 

This time, Paul is in No. 2 at 3.8 percent, while Rubio is ahead by a sizable margin. His 4.2 percent beats out his fellow point guard by 0.4, which is a pretty big deal since there are far more than 100 possessions in any given season. 

Prediction: 2.6 steals per game

Contenders for Blocks Title

Contender No. 3: JaVale McGee

No disrespect meant to Roy Hibbert and Dwight Howard, but they'll be competing for fifth place here. 

JaVale McGee finally has a starting role, and he figures to experience far more time on the court than ever before. Even while playing just 18.1 minutes per game, the 7-footer averaged two blocks per contest, good for eighth place in the NBA. 

What happens now that he gets more playing time? 

Prediction: 2.7 blocks per game

Contender No. 2: Serge Ibaka

What? The two-time defending champion all the way down in third place? Are you out of your mind? 

Maybe, but that doesn't mean Ibaka won't decline for the second season in a row. He averaged 0.7 fewer blocks per game in 2012-13 than 2011-12, and that was despite a significant increase in playing time. The problem is that Ibaka is becoming a better defender. 

So for the Thunder, it's really not much of a problem. 

However, Ibaka is showing more restraint than ever when he challenges shots, and that's leading to better overall defense and fewer rejections each game. 

Prediction: 2.9 blocks per game

Contender No. 1: Larry Sanders

The only thing holding back Larry Sanders is the rest of his team. 

While he's going to continue improving as a shot-blocker (he already exhibits restraint instead of challenging everything), his playing time doesn't figure to go up by too much. Not with Ekpe Udoh, John Henson and Zaza Pachulia all on the roster. 

Sanders could very well lead the league in the number of times causing "Spalding" to be imprinted on an opponent's forehead, but it's time for a truly bold prediction. 

Prediction: 3.0 blocks per game

Block Champion: Tim Duncan

Tim Duncan has put together one of the most impressive resumes ever. 

He's left little doubt that he's the greatest power forward of all time (even if he plays center now), and it's not at all unlikely for him to be considered a top-10 player in basketball history when he eventually retires.

If he retires, I guess. 

However, Duncan has never led the league in blocks per game. In fact, the highest he's finished is third (2002-03, 2004-05 and 2012-13). 

That changes next year. 

Duncan has finally had to adjust his playing style as Father Time tightens its grip on his durable frame. He strayed from the paint with less frequency in 2012-13 than ever before, and the result was an impressive 2.7 blocks per game despite only playing 30 minutes each contest. 

The Big Fundamental's playing time should stagnate, but his blocks per game will increase now that he's even more adjusted to this new role. Expect him to finish ahead of Sanders by the narrowest of margins. 

Prediction: 3.1 blocks per game

Contenders for 3-Point Title

Contender No. 3: Kyle Korver

Kyle Korver in no way got enough credit for the work he did behind the arc last season. 

Any guesses how many players in NBA history had shot 45 percent or better from downtown while averaging at least 5.5 three-pointers per game going into the 2012-13 campaign? 

Glen Rice was the only one. But after 2012-13, Korver and Stephen Curry had both joined him in the club. 

Korver should receive about the same amount of playing time with the new-look Atlanta Hawks, so an increase of six makes is by no means a stretch. 

Prediction: 195 made three-pointers

Contender No. 2: J.J. Redick

Finding your way onto this leaderboard is all about opportunity. There are plenty of potent sharpshooters in the NBA, but only a select few have a large enough role to actually land in the top four. 

During the 50 games that Redick was with the Orlando Magic, he drilled 117 triples. Prorated to 82 games, that would be 192 makes, which would have put him at No. 4 for 2012-13. Alas, the Milwaukee Bucks didn't give him as many opportunities, and he fell back to No. 13. 

With the Los Angeles Clippers, Redick should be able to shoot just as much as he did with the Magic. He'll be counted on heavily to space the court, and he'll have one of the best assist men in basketball feeding him the rock. 

Expect big things. 

Prediction: 197 made three-pointers

Contender No. 1: Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson's shot will only improve as his career progresses. 

He made 211 triples during his second season with the Golden State Warriors, but that total will decline ever so slightly now that Andre Iguodala has joined the Dubs. Thompson, Iggy and Harrison Barnes all need playing time, so any improvements are going to be offset by a small decline in playing time. 

Either way, I think the Warriors will be pretty thrilled. 

Prediction: 205 made three-pointers

3-Point Champion: Stephen Curry

Duh?

It would be absolutely nonsensical for anyone else to be featured in this spot after Stephen Curry set the all-time record for three-pointers made in a single season. 

Ryan Anderson finished second, and he was 59 triples behind Curry. If you're curious why Anderson has fallen out of the article entirely, well, you have the acquisitions of Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans to thank for that. 

Curry is only going to keep getting better, especially now that he'll be spending a significant amount of time playing next to Andre Iguodala. He'll finally have another facilitator in the starting lineup, and the result is going to be even more easy opportunities. 

The best three-point shooter in NBA history will break his own record. And yes, I do feel comfortable giving him that designation after such a short time because unlike the elite sharpshooters of the past, Curry actually creates his own looks too. 

Prediction: 290 made three-pointers

Contenders for Field-Goal Percentage Title

Contender No. 3: Kenneth Faried

This is another one of those spots that's really just a crapshoot, as any number of players could finish fourth in field-goal percentage. 

But don't be surprised when it's Kenneth Faried who makes another leap after shooting 55.1 percent from the field during his sophomore season. He's a dunking monster, and his jumper is only going to continue getting better as he puts more time between the present and his career at Morehead State. 

Prediction: 57.5 percent

Contender No. 2: LeBron James

Yep, you heard it here first. LeBron James is almost going to shoot 60 percent from the field during the 2013-14 season while (kind of) competing for the scoring title. 

Everything about James' offensive game continues to improve. His jumper is deadlier than ever, and his post moves are going to start terrifying defenses before too long. Plus, LeBron's field-goal percentage has been trending up for a while now. 

Take a look at the numbers he's posted over the last handful of seasons. 

• 2006-07: 47.6
• 2007-08: 48.4
• 2008-09: 48.9
• 2009-10: 50.3
• 2010-11: 51.0
• 2011-12: 53.1
• 2012-13: 56.5

Those numbers follow a very strong quadratic regression where R^2 = 0.983: Field-goal percentage = 0.2333*(year)^2 - 0.5024*(year) + 48.171 where a value of one for "year" corresponds to the 2006-07 season. 

Seriously, look how well that regression predicts his shooting percentages for the seasons that have come to pass: 

• 2006-07: 47.9 (actual: 47.6)
• 2007-08: 48.1 (actual: 48.4)
• 2008-09: 48.8 (actual: 48.9)
• 2009-10: 49.9 (actual: 50.3)
• 2010-11: 51.5 (actual: 51.0)
• 2011-12: 53.6 (actual: 53.1)
• 2012-13: 56.1 (actual: 56.5)

Convinced yet?

The regression predicts that LeBron will hit 59.1 percent of his shots this coming season.

Let's go with that. 

Prediction: 59.1 percent

Contender No. 1: DeAndre Jordan

I don't have much confidence in DeAndre Jordan's ability to lead the league in field-goal percentage two seasons in a row. 

Although he finished 6.5 percent ahead of Dwight Howard in 2012-13, he's about to be counted on for more offense this coming season. It's the point in Jordan's career where he needs to become more of a contributor, and the Clippers will need him to in order to take that next step. 

Jordan will still remain a high-volume dunker, but Doc Rivers, used to coaching Kevin Garnett over the years, will inevitably have him play out of his comfort zone every once in a while. 

Prediction: 60.5 percent

Field-Goal Percentage Champion: Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard is no stranger to leading the league in shooting efficiency. 

He's finished in the top four every season since 2006-07, including a first-place finish in 2009-10. Well, the Houston Rockets are just about recreating that season now. 

The Orlando Magic were effective because they surrounded Dwight with shooters and let defenses pick their poison. Kevin McHale and Daryl Morey are doing the same thing with the Rockets now, except there's even more offensive firepower. 

James Harden is already better than anyone Howard played with in Orlando, and opponents won't be able to leave him or Chandler Parsons alone. As a result, Howard is going to have his way in the paint all year long. 

And remember, he finished second during his lone season with the Los Angeles Lakers despite a nagging back injury that plagued him all year. 

Prediction: 61.7 percent