Could Jo-Jo Reyes Have Fantasy Value?

The Atlanta Braves currently are unsure if Tom Glavine is going to return to the mound this season.  There have been rumblings that he was considering retirement, though right now it appears like he’s going to be able to return at some point.

For now the team has used Jo-Jo Reyes at the backend of the rotation, but is he really the best option for the team?  Thus far this season he has posted the following line:

0 Wins
18.0 Innings
5.00 ERA
1.28 WHIP
14 Strikeouts (7.00 K/9)
7 Walks (3.50 BB/9)
.290 BABIP

The ERA and WHIP do not seem to match-up, do they?  His strand rate has been bad.  Actually, it’s been really bad, at 62.0% thus far this season, though it does go along with his career mark of 66.6%.

Last season no pitcher was that bad.  In fact, only four pitchers were below 65% and only eighteen were below 70% (Reyes didn’t qualify).  Could he continue to pitch to such bad luck?  I find it hard to believe, but I guess you never know.

He’s improved his strikeout rate every season since making his major league debut in 2007:

• 2007 - 4.80
• 2008 - 6.21
• 2009 - 7.00

Considering he has a career minor league mark of 8.8, it would appear that what he’s shown thus far this season is believable.

The walk rate is also right along the line of his minor league mark, which was 3.4.  Again, despite struggles early on in the major leagues this is a number I have to believe it is repeatable.

How about the .290 BABIP?  In 2008 that would have put him in the Top 30, so it is likely that a regression is coming there, thus leading to an increase WHIP.  Is it going to be a big drop-off?  Probably not.  A slight one would lead to a WHIP in the 1.32-1.35 range, a number that is still very usable.

Looking for a bigger potential negative?  Thus far he’s posted a groundball rate of 61.2 percent vs. a flyball rate of 24.5 percent.  Those are elite numbers, and ones that are highly unlikely that he can continue. 

Will more flyballs equate to less success?  Not necessarily, but it will likely lead to more home runs allowed (thus far his HR/9 is at 0.50), which will hurt his ERA.

Granted, his time in the rotation may be limited.  Glavine is likely coming back and Tommy Hanson is tearing it up at Triple-A, itching to make has mark at the major league level.

Still, Reyes is a pitcher who has the potential to post better numbers as the season progresses.  The real key to his struggles this season has been the strand rate, something that I have to believe is going to improve. 

If he can maintain his peripherals like strikeouts and walks, he is likely to be a useful pitcher, at the very least in a pitch-and-ditch role.

What does everyone else think?  Is Reyes someone you’d consider using?

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