Could Jason Bay Make the Blue Jays Better than the (2008) Devil Rays?

The Toronto Blue Jays seem to have switched places with the Tampa Bay Rays of last year (the Jays are first the American League East, the Rays are fourth). There are some other similarities of the two teams' evolutions, but the "2008 Rays" weren't quite the best thing to be.

They didn't have the stamina to win, as opposed to reach, the World Series. And they didn't have the staying power to repeat their performance in 2009 (at least so far).

The Blue Jays could find themselves in a similar situation at the end of this year: close, but no cigar for the World Series, and then where do we go from here. That is, unless they sign the Boston Red Sox' Jason Bay (or someone like him), whose contract expires this year.

This would give them an extra competitive cushion, possibly making them a dominant force in the American League East for years to come.

With recent acquisitions, the Toronto Blue Jays have fixed most of what was wrong with their line-up. Jose Bautista platoons with Scott Rolen, the third baseman, and Adam Lind, the designated hitter, increasing the productivity of all three men. 

Kevin Millar, the better hitter, can platoon with Lyle Overbay, the better defender, at first. Marco Scutaro is one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball. Aaron Hill, the second basemen, is a star hitter. All in all, the Blue Jays now have a strong infield combination, counting the catcher, Rod Barajas. 

Vernon Wells, in center field, isn't a bad hitter either, especially for someone in such a crucial defensive slot. But, the weak links are at the outfield corners. 

Thus, the Toronto Blue Jays need to do one thing at the end of this year to ensure their dominance: Sign Jason Bay, formerly with the Pittsburgh Pirates, then traded to the Boston Red Sox, as a replacement for Manny Ramirez.

This is what Bay would do for the Jays: They would have two impact hitters, Bay and Hill, rather than one.

They would finally have an adequate substitute for Travis Snider, their weakest player. Since he is "replacement level," this would basically represent a two-level upgrade (from replacement to league average, and again from league average to star).

They would deprive their main American League East rivals, the Boston Red Sox, of one of their two impact hitters (Kevin Youkilis is the other one).

This means that the Blue Jays, not known as a "hitting" team, would have have the best offensive one-two punch in the American League East, with the possible exception of the New York Yankees, a team not noted for its pitching.

Here's why signing Bay might be a possibility: The Red Sox have dilly-dallied on a contract extension for him. In their minds, he's not a full replacement for Ramirez, even though he is, in fact. And he's a much better citizen to boot. 

Having been hit by a Joba Chamberlain pitch last night, Bay might not wish to be the centerpiece (along with Youkilis) of the "oldest rivalry in baseball."

Bay is a Canadian, meaning that he might want to play for a "home" team. Bay is a five win (over replacement) player who won't be offered a commensurate $20 million contract. That's partly because of his age (31 this year), partly because of memories of his "bad" 2007 (due to injuries, not lack of effort), and partly because his weak defense detracts from a six win hitter.

The early line has been that Bay can be signed for $12-$14 million. And it might only be a three year contract, rather than four or five. That's something that the Blue Jays can afford, albeit at a stretch. If necessary, they can raise most of the money at the end of 2010 by letting go of Scott Rolen, and using Bautista as a cheaper substitute at third base.  

Hopefully the Blue Jays' management will sign Jason Bay. Maybe they will make an equivalent move that I haven't discussed. Maybe they will manage to win the World Series (in 2009 or 2010) without such a move. And maybe they aren't as good as I now give them credit for.