Top 10 Restricted NBA Free Agents This Offseason

The 2012-13 NBA season is officially over, so let’s not waste any time in starting to think about the 2013-14 campaign and beyond.

Free agency is right around the corner, and while the biggest names on the market—namely, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala—are all available to the highest bidder, another crop of free agents is out there as well—those of the restricted variety.

Restricted free agents are players who have been in the league for a short time (generally four years or less) and are tendered qualifying offers for the next season.

Those players can pass on the qualifying offer—which gives them a slight raise over their previous season’s salary—and test the market for a longer-term deal for more money. However, their current employer reserves the right to match any offer sheet the player signs with another team and automatically retain his services.

Here are the top 10 restricted free agents up for grabs this offseason.

10. Eric Maynor

Two seasons ago, it seemed like Eric Maynor had solidified the backup point guard spot behind Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City.

Unfortunately, everything went wrong for Maynor in his last couple years with the Thunder, beginning with the torn ACL he suffered in January of the 2011-12 season and ending with him losing his job and being shipped off to Portland.

Maynor regained some of his old form with the Trail Blazers, but still struggled with his shooting and scoring. He’s a steady hand who can competently run an offense, but remains little more than a solid backup.

There’s not likely to be a big market for Maynor. In all likelihood, the Blazers can hang onto him for cheap money to play behind reigning NBA Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard.

9. Chris Copeland

Chris Copeland came out of nowhere this season to contribute for the New York Knicks.

A journeyman who’s played in several pro leagues around the world, Copeland proved that he could hang in the NBA as well. He’s a very good scorer whose range extends past the three-point line. Shockingly, he finished sixth among all small forwards in Player Efficiency Rating this season, just ahead of Paul George.

Copeland’s per-minute scoring numbers were elite this season, as he put up 20 points per 36 minutes on 48 percent shooting from the field and 42 percent from three-point range. He finished the season with back-to-back 30-point performances.

At 29 years old, there isn’t any upside with Copeland, but you also know what you’re getting—a guy who can score in bunches off the bench. He’s not likely to receive long-term offers from anywhere, so the Knicks should have no problem in hanging on to him.

8. Gary Neal

Speaking of players who can score off the bench, Gary Neal fits the mold perfectly.

We received a taste of how he can swing a game in Game 4 of the NBA Finals when he exploded for 24 points in 25 minutes.

Neal is a knock-down shooter, but his shooting fell off significantly this season. After hitting a shade under 42 percent of his treys in his first two years, Neal only connected on 35.5 percent in 2012-13.

If his shot isn’t falling, he doesn’t provide much value elsewhere. He’s one of those guys who you ride if he’s hot, but yank if he’s not.

The San Antonio Spurs are the best organization in the league at unearthing guys like Neal. They would have no problem walking away if he receives an offer not to their liking. 

7. Darren Collison

Darren Collison showed a lot of promise as a rookie filling in for Chris Paul for extended minutes in New Orleans. Since then though, he’s had a chance to claim the starting point guard job with two different teams and failed with both.

Collison is speedy-quick and can score well. He’s a good shooter who actually flirted with a 50-40-90 campaign deep into last season before falling off late in the year. He’s an excellent foul shooter (88 percent in 2012-13) who gets to the line a good amount, especially considering his size.

The problem with Collison is his decision-making. He consistently fails to make reads and passes that most NBA point guards do with ease. He tends to over-dribble and it hardly ever seems like his team’s offense is running smoothly when he is on the court.

The Dallas Mavericks don’t really have any other options at the point, but they have their sights set on the man Collison learned from as a rookie (Paul) in free agency.

Unless Collison is willing to accept his one-year qualifying offer with the Mavs, expect him to move on to his fourth team in five years.

6. Tiago Splitter

After starting just eight games in his first two years in San Antonio, Tiago Splitter tipped off 58 times for the Spurs in 2012-13.

Splitter remained productive in his increased role, though his numbers did come down a bit from 2012. He averaged 15 points and nine rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting a torrid 56 percent from the field.

As an old-school, physical center who likes playing with his back to the basket, Splitter’s effectiveness is limited in today’s sleeker, faster, down-sized NBA—especially since he’s not mobile or athletic enough to guard pick-and-rolls effectively or cover quicker power forwards masquerading as centers.

He’s still a very useful player, especially for the Spurs, who rely on him to help Tim Duncan protect the rim.

Skilled big men who can catch and finish around the rim are always in demand around the league, and Splitter can do more than that, putting him in truly rarefied air. San Antonio kept him stashed overseas for three years and has spent the last three developing him here. They would be loath to let him go.

5. Gerald Henderson

It’s hard to get excited about anyone who’s played for the Charlotte Bobcats the past few seasons, but Gerald Henderson made some positive strides last year.

Henderson became a more efficient offensive player in 2012-13, taking—and making—more threes while and getting more often to the free-throw line, where he improved his foul shooting from 76 percent in 2012 to 82 percent in 2012-13.

He also curtailed his penchant for chucking long two-pointers—also known as basketball’s least-efficient shot.

Only an uncharacteristically low shooting percentage at the rim kept his shooting numbers from being even better, but he upped his assist rate while keeping his turnovers low as usual.

Henderson is a solid defender as well. He’s a tad undersized, but makes up for it with focus, effort and athleticism. With his game trending in the right direction, a smart team should try to pry him away from the hapless Bobcats with a decent offer.

Charlotte has nothing going for them, though, and they liked Henderson as their long term answer at shooting guard even before his improvement last year. He’ll probably stick around all the way through their arduous rebuilding process.

4. Brandon Jennings

Isn’t Brandon Jennings supposed to be the best player on the Milwaukee Bucks?

Then it’s a troubling sign that the Bucks were outscored by 5.2 points per 100 possessions when Jennings was on the court this season, yet outscored their opponents by 7.8 points per 100 possessions when Jennings was on the sidelines, according to 82games.com.

Jennings regained his three-point stroke in 2012-13, but his shooting percentage at the rim plummeted back down to his career norm. He was 60th out of 65 point guards who played 15-plus minutes per game for 40-plus games in field goal percentage right at the basket, according to Hoopdata.

He did do a better job distributing the ball this season, but still too many Milwaukee possessions ended with him launching an inefficient step-back jumper. His overall field goal percentage was south of 40 percent for the third time in four seasons.

Most worrisome of all was how unspeakably terrible Jennings was in the playoffs, even though the Bucks gave the Heat some surprisingly stiff competition.

Yet Jennings averaged just 13 points and four assists, while failing to connect on even 30 percent of his field goals. He made only 21 percent of his threes, but insisted on taking an average of seven of those a game.

Is that the kind of player you want to build your franchise around? After Jennings scored 55 points in just his seventh professional game, the answer would have been an unequivocal yes.

Now though, he’s definitely not worth anything near the max contract he expects. Stephen Curry and Jrue Holiday signed well-below-max extensions a year ago and are far superior players.

If Jennings gets an offer in that neighborhood, logic would dictate that the Bucks pass, but with Monta Ellis opting out of the final year of his deal, does Milwaukee have a choice other than to lock Jennings up long term?

3. Tyreke Evans

Much like Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans hasn’t been able to live up to his impressive rookie campaign in 2009-10.

After becoming just the fourth NBA rookie ever to put up a 20-point, five-rebound, five-assist season, Evans’ numbers have tailed off significantly in subsequent years.

Despite career lows in minutes, usage rate and scoring, Evans quietly improved this season.

He shot a career best from the field, mainly because he cut down significantly on the long two-point attempts he used to shoot too frequently. He instead attempted more than half of his field goals at the rim, where he is an excellent finisher.

Evans even improved his three-point stroke, going from 20 percent in 2011-12 to a shade under 34 percent in 2012-13. He also cut down on his turnovers and tallied a strong assist rate, even though he played off the ball full-time last year.

Without a doubt, Evans still has the talent to be a star in this league, given the right role on the right team. If he continues to improve his shot selection and outside shot he can be an unstoppable offensive force.

Whether he can actually put it all together is the real question. If I were a veteran team with cap space in need of a dynamic offensive presence, I wouldn’t hesitate to take a flier on him.

The Sacramento Kings, chock-full of offense-first gunners as they are, should look to hold on to Evans and try to coax his potential out of him.

2. Jeff Teague

Jeff Teague is coming off of a breakout season with the Atlanta Hawks. He may not be a household name, but he is one of the brightest young point guards in the league.

Teague’s scoring jumped up as he improved his long-range shooting to 36 percent and his free-throw accuracy to an elite 88 percent, but where he made his biggest stride was as a distributor.

His assist rate was far and away the best of his career, as he averaged eight assists per 36 minutes to go along with 16 points.  Combining his improved passing with his burst and scoring instincts should vault him into the upper echelon of NBA point guards.

Atlanta has a boatload of cap space this summer, and they still have their eye on Chris Paul. If Paul doesn’t come on board, expect the Hawks to quickly lock Teague up to a long-term deal.

1. Nikola Pekovic

You could see the breakout coming after the strong finish to the 2011-12 season for Nikola Pekovic.

The Minnesota Timberwolves’ bruising center entrenched himself as a full-time starter, averaging 16 points and nine rebounds on 52 percent shooting in less than 32 minutes a game.

He was third at his position in PER among guys who played at least 21 minutes a game for more than 25 games.

I mentioned earlier how Tiago Splitter’s value gets a boost because of how offensively skilled he is. Pekovic is another cut above that, as he can function as a decent go-to guy in the post that any team can play inside-out with.

In addition to being able to finish around the basket and take defenders one-on-one in the post, Pekovic draws a ton of fouls and actually converts his free throws, hitting more than 74 percent of the five-plus foul shots he attempted per game.

Pekovic’s lack of mobility hurts him on the defensive end, but his massive size helps him protect the rim, even though he’s not much of a shot blocker.

Centers like Pekovic don’t come on the market very often. He’s going to draw a very lucrative offer from someone, but the T-Wolves will almost certainly match it and cement an extremely promising frontcourt partnership between him and Kevin Love.