A Closer Look at Justin Masterson

Justin Masterson is a pitcher that always seems to be in limbo for the Boston Red Sox.  Is he a starter?  Is he a reliever?

With Daisuke Matsuzaka on the disabled list the team opted to slide him into the rotation for the short-term instead of recalling someone like Clay Buchholz from Triple-A.  He was tremendous in his first two starts, giving up two runs on 10 hits and three walks, striking out seven, over 10.2 innings.  On Friday night against Tampa Bay things went a little bit south for him, yielding six runs on six hits and three walks, striking out six, over six innings.  It was his first loss of the season.

Is he a pitcher that could stick in the Boston rotation long-term?  That’s really the question, as his fantasy value hinges on it.  Matsuzaka is going to return.  Buchholz and Smoltz are going to be available.  Brad Penny is likely to get bumped.  Let’s take a look at what Masterson could offer.

Prior to the 2008 season Baseball America had him pegged as the team’s No. 4 prospect (behind Buchholz), saying:

“Using a low three-quarters arm slot, Masterson unleashes a special sinker. With its low-90s velocity and heavy movement, batters feel like they’re trying to hit a bowling ball. His No. 2 pitch is a slider that improved last season.”

Couple that report with a change-up and he has an arsenal that can be devastating.  He uses the sinker to get batters to beat the ball into the ground.  In 2008 he posted a groundball rate of 54.3 percent.  Thus far this season he’s at 51.5 percent.  Just for comparison, last season there were only 13 pitchers who posted groundball rates of 50 percent or better.  In 2007 there were only 14 pitchers.  In 2006 the number was 15.

Is he among the elite?  No, he’s not.  I wouldn’t put him in the came category of the Derek Lowe’s and Brandon Webb’s of the world, but he certainly would be among the league’s best if he got regular starts.

In his nine starts last season his numbers were impressive:

4 Wins
54.0 Innings
3.67 ERA
1.26 WHIP
39 Strikeouts (6.50 K/9)
28 Walks (4.67 BB/9)
.220 BABIP

The thing is that there was some underlying issues that obviously have to cause concern.  I know the Red Sox are good, but can we expect any pitcher to post a BABIP even close to what he did last season?  For comparison, let’s look at some of the Red Sox other starters in ‘08:

• Josh Beckett, .327
• Daisuke Matsuzaka, ,267
• Jon Lester, .299

A regression there would certainly be in order, meaning an increased WHIP.  More base runners could also mean an increased ERA.

The walks are also an obvious concern, though not as big of one.  Over his minor league career he posted a BB/9 of 2.3 over 233.0 innings and thus far this season he’s at a 2.8.  He struggled last season, but I wouldn’t be concerned there.  While improved control would offset the increased WHIP a bit (from the increased BABIP), but clearly not enough.  I wouldn’t expect that impressive of a WHIP, more towards the middle of the pack.

He’s never been a big strikeout option, posting a career K/9 in the minors of 7.5.  He’s likely to be average there at best.

He does get a boost in value from pitching for the Red Sox, meaning plenty of opportunity to gather victories.

All in all, if Masterson sticks in the rotation I like him as a middle of the road pitcher.  He’d be good in all formats to fill out your fantasy rotation, but I certainly don’t see him as the centerpiece to it.  If he sticks is the biggest question, however, with the Red Sox holding a bevy of options.  I just don’t see him picking up 25 starts this season, certainly limiting the value.

What about everyone else?  Do you see him as a must use option?

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