Odds of Each Top-25 MLB Player Being a 2013 All-Star
Getting selected to play in the Major League Baseball All-Star Game is one of the toughest things to do as a player, whether you’re a star or the 25th man on the roster.
But for those who are stars, they have a certain advantage. Because the fans have the power to decide the MLB All-Star Game’s starters, a fan favorite could get voted in regardless of his first-half performance. For the most part, however, fan favorites are the ones who are most deserving of the fans' vote to the Midsummer Classic.
So, which stars have good odds to make it to Citi Field on July 16?
I took a look at the top 25 stars in the game, using the list compiled by ESPN at the end of last season that determined who those players were. Keep in mind that I didn’t rank these players, ESPN did—and I hope that’s very clear.
What I did do is evaluate their first-half performance to this point in the season, compared it to those at the same position, looked at what the fans are saying and determined the odds of that top-25 star getting selected to 2013 All-Star Game, whether he gets voted in by the fans or taken by the coaching staff.
Ahead are the odds for each of those 25 players. Let’s take a look as to who has good odds, who has bad odds and whose 2013 All-Star Game jersey you should already be purchasing.
*All statistics in this article were obtained via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All injury information was obtained via Baseball Prospectus. All contract information was obtained via Cot’s Contracts.
25. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
1 of 26| 14 | 8-2 | 2.55 | 102.1 | 7.83 | 1.50 | 3.0 |
Not much has gone right for the Phillies this season, but Cliff Lee has been the team’s one player it can rely on to take the mound and perform like an ace—something Philadelphia has lacked this season. At 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA, Lee has been the Phillies’ top pitcher in 2013 by far.
The Phillies are still a ways back in the NL East and likely won’t have many All-Stars this season, but Lee is sure to be one. In terms of WAR, he’s been the third-best starter in the NL this year, behind Adam Wainwright and Matt Harvey, according to FanGraphs. Bruce Bochy won’t deny him a spot on the NL’s roster.
All-Star Game Odds: 93 Percent
24. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
2 of 26| 60 | .265 | .364 | .509 | 15 | 36 | 2.5 |
Jose Bautista’s Blue Jays haven’t gotten off on the right foot in 2013, and it appears that Toronto won’t be the massive superpower that many thought it would be over the offseason. But it’s not Bautista’s fault. He’s still hitting the lights out, crushing at least 15 home runs for the seventh time in his career.
Toronto won’t have more than two All-Stars this season. Bautista has the best shot out of anyone on the team, and Edwin Encarnacion has the second-best.
In the latest All-Star Game voting, Bautista was fifth in votes among AL outfielders. As the outfielder with the second-highest WAR among his opponents, according to FanGraphs, he deserves an All-Star selection.
All-Star Game Odds: 80 Percent
23. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels
3 of 26| 5 | 1-2 | 3.77 | 28.2 | 6.59 | 2.51 | 0.5 |
Jered Weaver has been an All-Star in each of the last three seasons. I have a feeling that that trend is going to be halted this season, though. Weaver missed significant time this year due to a fractured elbow, and for that reason, you can count his starts on just one hand.
It’s not that Weaver isn’t worthy of another All-Star nod, but he hasn’t pitched much this year and spots on the AL’s pitching staff are going to be hard to come by. I think it’s more likely that Jim Leyland takes a pitcher who’s done well in 2013 instead of one who just has a great track record.
All-Star Game Odds: 30 Percent
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22. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
4 of 26| 66 | .307 | .354 | .5623 | 14 | 38 | 1.9 |
The AL third base race is about as tight as they come. There are five major contenders for what looks to be just three spots. Miguel Cabrera is in. Manny Machado deserves to be in. Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson do too. And then there’s Adrian Beltre, who is about as consistent a hitter as you’ll find.
Beltre is currently third in the AL voting among those at the hot corner, behind Cabrera and Machado. In terms of WAR, though, he isn’t even in the top five, according to FanGraphs. That poses a bit of a problem for the Rangers third baseman. While there’s no question that Beltre is having a good year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets snubbed.
All-Star Game Odds: 73 Percent
21. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
5 of 26| 14 | 2-9 | 4.45 | 87.0 | 8.48 | 2.69 | 1.1 |
Cole Hamels has not pitched well at all this season. While his FIP and xFIP suggest that his ERA is higher than it should be, the left-hander still hasn’t looked like himself through his first 14 starts of 2013. He also isn’t getting any run support whatsoever, which is another problem in its own.
Opponents have a .300 BAPIP against him, meaning that they’ve been very lucky against Hamels. He’s just having a rough year. It happens. But because of his poor start to the season, Hamels will not be on the NL roster. Bruce Bochy has better options to choose from this year.
All-Star Game Odds: 20 Percent
20. Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels
6 of 26| 67 | .213 | .271 | .384 | 9 | 22 | 0.3 |
I can say in full confidence that the prized possession for this past winter is the biggest disappointment in baseball this year.
What in the world happened to Josh Hamilton? He’s gone from a perennial MVP candidate to a player who looks lost at the plate and is barely over the Mendoza Line.
Hamilton has not contributed at all for the Angels this year, which I’m sure they’re thrilled about. Note: That’s sarcasm.
The fans are still voting for him, though. He’s 12th among AL outfielders in votes thus far. I’m not sure what the 726,485 fans have been watching this year. There are hundreds of players who deserve a spot more than Hamilton.
All-Star Game Odds: Five Percent
19. Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
7 of 26| 14 | 5-3 | 4.70 | 88.0 | 7.98 | 2.97 | 0.3 |
Matt Cain just simply hasn’t been himself this year. While he hasn’t been horrible, he hasn’t pitched like we’re used to seeing. He’s only posted an ERA above 4.00 once in his career, and that was his first full season in the big leagues. His FIP and xFIP are lower than his ERA, but they still suggest that opponents should be scoring around four runs.
It seems that the problem is coming from a lack of command. Cain’s 2.97 walk rate is as high as it’s been in the last four years, and he’s also allowing 1.33 home runs per nine innings, which would set a new career high as of now. He isn’t hitting his spots, and it’s showing. I think it’s a bit of a stretch that he makes this year’s NL squad.
All-Star Game Odds: 40 Percent
18. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
8 of 26| 66 | .260 | .329 | .446 | 11 | 42 | 0.4 |
If Josh Hamilton hadn't signed with the Angels this past winter, Albert Pujols would be the clear-cut biggest disappointment on the club. He hasn’t looked anything like the MVP candidate that we’re used to seeing. Pujols has struggled to hit with consistency and while his power is still there, his overall game has been lacking.
Pujols’ isolated power is way down this year at .183. His career-low is .231, which came a year ago.
Los Angeles is still pushing to get its first baseman to Queens, as Pujols is fourth in votes among AL first basemen, but there’s still no way he makes the team. Unless he plays out of his mind for the next month, he’ll be at home for those few days.
All-Star Game Odds: 10 Percent
17. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers
9 of 26| 66 | .292 | .391 | .506 | 12 | 54 | 1.3 |
Prince Fielder is having another great season, and it should result in another MLB All-Star Game appearance. His second season with the Tigers is looking a lot like his first, although his defense has been worse, which is why his WAR isn’t too high as well. Overall, though, Detroit can’t complain.
Fielder is arguably the second-best first baseman in the AL this year, behind Chris Davis. He is about one million votes behind Davis right now, but he's nearly a lock to get selected to the Midsummer Classic. He won’t be starting, like he has the last two seasons, but he’ll still be on the AL’s roster.
All-Star Game Odds: 90 Percent
16. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
10 of 26| 25 | .263 | .358 | .474 | 5 | 16 | 0.1 |
The Miami Marlins are going to need at least one representative on this year’s NL roster, and it’s a toss-up as to who that player will be. Many of the players on Miami have been bad this year and others have been injured. Giancarlo Stanton has been both, but not nearly as bad as some of his teammates.
Stanton is a fan favorite, which is why I think he might have the best odds on Miami to get selected to the MLB All-Star Game. But the problem is that since Stanton was hurt for such an extended period of time, he’s not even in the top 15 in voting among NL outfielders.
He’s still Miami’s best player, but who knows who Bruce Bochy will be taking from the Marlins.
All-Star Game Odds: 70 Percent
15. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
11 of 26| 68 | .308 | .363 | .556 | 14 | 42 | 3.8 |
Evan Longoria might need to hope that his numbers are good enough to make the AL All-Star team. He currently sits in fourth place among AL third basemen and is very far back of Miguel Cabrera, meaning he’ll have to get selected by the coaching staff. That being said, Longoria does have good enough numbers to make it.
While Longoria is fourth in votes, he’s actually second in WAR, according to FanGraphs. The problem for him is that all of his competition is having a similar year to his. Nearly everyone is hitting .300 with at least 10 home runs, like him. But the kicker is that I don’t think any other Rays will make the team, and Tampa Bay will need a representative.
All-Star Game Odds: 86 Percent
14. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves
12 of 26| 26 | 18 | 1.78 | 25.1 | 12.43 | 2.49 | 0.6 |
The problem with being a reliever toward the end of the first half is that it’s very difficult to make it to the All-Star Game. Oftentimes, the teams are made up of a lot of starting pitchers and then three or four relievers. Being selected by the coaches as one of three or four best isn’t always easy. But Craig Kimbrel is in the conversation.
Kimbrel is one of the most dominant closers in baseball, but if you’re going by WAR, he won't come close to sitting in the bullpen for the NL, according to FanGraphs.
It’ll be a close race, in my opinion, and while Jason Grilli is a lock, I wouldn’t be surprised either way if Kimbrel did or didn’t make the team.
All-Star Game Odds: 75 Percent
13. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
13 of 26| 51 | .251 | .305 | .335 | 2 | 17 | -1.2 |
Despite Matthew Kemp’s troubles staying on the field this season, he’s been horrible when he’s on the field. He has easily been one of the most worthless players in the game and has been a big reason why the Dodgers are as bad as they currently are.
If Kemp was himself, Los Angeles could be atop the NL West right now.
Kemp is still on the disabled list with a strained hamstring, and he might not even be playing very much one he returns considering how well Yasiel Puig has played.
Kemp has struggled just about as much as any other player in the league this year, which is surprising since he’s been great for the last few years.
All-Star Game Odds: Five Percent
12. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
14 of 26| 65 | .298 | .367 | .464 | 7 | 35 | 2.8 |
If a couple hundred thousand more people vote for Andrew McCutchen, he might end up starting for the NL. He’s only around 800,000 votes behind Bryce Harper for third place among NL outfielders. But that doesn’t seem too likely as of now. I do, however, think that he has a solid chance at getting selected by the coaches.
McCutchen and Starling Marte have both been good for Pittsburgh this year, but there’s no question that McCutchen is the better player and has been having the better season. He’s leading Marte in nearly every statistical category there is. If either of the two is going to get selected, it should be McCutchen.
All-Star Game Odds: 80 Percent
11. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
15 of 26| 12 | 3-5 | 2.54 | 74.1 | 8.84 | 2.54 | 1.4 |
While Stephen Strasburg has still be good this season—despite his poor win-loss record—it’s still going to be tough for him to sneak onto the NL’s roster. Strasburg’s FIP and xFIP suggest that he’s been lucky with how few runs he’s allowed this year. And keep in mind that his strikeout rate is down, while his walk rate is up.
Strasburg also hasn’t been the best pitcher for Washington this year, which severely hurts his chances at getting selected. Jordan Zimmerman has been fantastic and he’s much more likely to get the nod over the young flamethrower.
Strasburg needs to stay healthy too, which could be a reason why Bruce Bochy decides to go with someone else.
All-Star Game Odds: 30 Percent
10. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
16 of 26| 9 | 1-4 | 5.24 | 55.0 | 8.02 | 2.29 | 0.5 |
David Price is having one of the roughest years of his career. For one, he hasn’t pitched well all year long. He’s struggling to retire hitters, and most that get on base tend to cross the plate, as seen in his very high ERA. This guy was the AL Cy Young last year, but he has yet to pitch many good games in 2013.
The other problem for Price is that he isn’t healthy. He’s been on the 15-day disabled list for about a month with strained triceps. Even if Price returns before the All-Star break, there’s a slim chance that he’s pitched well enough to convince the AL coaches that he deserves a spot on the roster.
All-Star Game Odds: 25 Percent
9. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
17 of 26| 69 | .315 | .436 | .498 | 11 | 33 | 2.9 |
While Paul Goldschmidt has had a great year for Arizona, there’s no question that Joey Votto is the NL’s starting first baseman this year. Votto has been unreal at the plate in 2013 and is already one of the leading candidates to win MVP. His WAR is higher than Goldschmidt’s, and then there's a steep drop-off to Brandon Belt, according to FanGraphs.
What’s also important is that Votto has the lead in the voting, because if he didn’t, then he’d be coming off the bench. But he has around 500,000 more votes than Goldschmidt does as of now, which suggests that it would be rare for an upset to occur. Votto has been the NL’s best first baseman this year, and he’ll be rewarded for it at the halfway point.
All-Star Game Odds: 96 Percent
8. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
18 of 26| 15 | 8-4 | 2.32 | 104.2 | 9.46 | 1.72 | 3.2 |
You could make the argument that Felix Hernandez has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. I mean, his numbers certainly show it. He’s rarely allowing runs to score, he’s frequently striking out batters and he almost never walks anyone. You really cannot beat that. He also currently has the highest WAR of any pitcher in the AL, according to FanGraphs.
But, of course, there’s another reason why King Felix is guaranteed to be in Queens this July, and that’s because the Mariners haven’t been very good this year. He’s easily going to be their representative.
If Seattle happens to two All-Stars, it should be the guy pitching behind the King, Hisashi Iwakuma.
Don’t be surprised if Hernandez starts for the AL either.
All-Star Game Odds: 93 Percent
7. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
19 of 26| 68 | .278 | .351 | .511 | 16 | 42 | 2.0 |
Robinson Cano isn’t the best second baseman this year, but there’s still a very high likelihood that he’ll be the starter for the AL on July 16. Cano has been racking up the votes considering that the All-Star Game is in New York and he plays for one of the New York teams. He’s roughly 800,000 votes ahead of Dustin Pedroia right now.
Cano also has the fourth-highest WAR among AL second baseman, behind Pedroia, Howie Kendrick and Jason Kipnis, according to FanGraphs. While the numbers don’t lie, I don’t see how he loses the lead in the voting or doesn’t get selected by the coaching staff if he does fall to Pedroia or someone else.
The hometown hero will get an All-Star nod.
All-Star Game Odds: 93 Percent
6. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
20 of 26| 63 | .313 | .388 | .515 | 8 | 41 | 2.5 |
Buster Posey is one of the best catchers in baseball—in the conversation with Joe Mauer and Yadier Molina. Posey and Molina have quite the bout going on in terms of votes this year, and it could come down to the wire. They both have more votes than any other player in the NL, and Posey currently has around a 50,000-vote lead.
Posey started for the NL a year ago, and it wouldn’t come as a shock if he were the starter for the second consecutive season. His numbers speak for themselves and as long as San Francisco can out-duel St. Louis, Posey will be behind the plate. There’s no doubt that it’s going to come down to a couple thousand votes, though.
All-Star Game Odds: 93 Percent
5. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
21 of 26| 57 | .304 | .380 | .509 | 9 | 36 | 1.8 |
Ryan Braun might be the most interesting 2013 All-Star Game case of them all. While he’s played well this season, there are a couple of factors that could negate his opportunity to play in Queens in around a month.
For one, his thumb has been bothering him for a while, and he’s on the disabled list. Who knows when he’ll be back. Secondly, he is all wrapped up in the Biogenesis scandal. We’ll have to wait and see how that affects his vote totals, but for now, he won’t be a starter.
Braun is in fourth place among NL outfielders and needs about 300,000 more votes to top Bryce Harper for third place. That could happen, but Braun might not be healthy enough to play.
All-Star Game Odds: 80 Percent
4. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
22 of 26| 15 | 5-4 | 1.84 | 107.1 | 8.72 | 2.60 | 2.8 |
Clayton Kershaw doesn’t have the highest WAR baseball, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he isn’t in the conversation as one of the best that there is. What’s hurt Kershaw is that he’s walking 2.6 batters per nine innings and hasn’t struck out more than a batter per inning, like some other pitchers have.
But he isn’t allowing many runs at all. He currently has the best ERA in the NL and the second-best in baseball, behind Clay Buchholz.
The Dodgers are going to need someone to represent them in Queens, and there’s no doubt that that player will be Kershaw. He’s earned the opportunity more than any of his Los Angeles teammates.
All-Star Game Odds: 75 Percent
3. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
23 of 26| 68 | .301 | .375 | .547 | 12 | 43 | 3.6 |
Mike Trout might not have gotten enough votes to start at the 2012 All-Star Game, but he certainly will this time around. This year, the fans are voting Trout in from all over the place, and he currently is just a handful of votes behind Adam Jones for the AL outfield lead. That could easily change in the coming weeks, though.
Trout has once again put up crazy numbers. He has the fifth-highest WAR in baseball and the third-highest in the AL, according to FanGraphs.
There’s literally nothing that the Angels outfielder cannot do or accomplish. He may be in just his second full season, but Trout is going to be an All-Star for many years to come.
All-Star Game Odds: 96 Percent
2. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
24 of 26| 14 | 8-4 | 3.41 | 87.0 | 10.45 | 2.90 | 3.0 |
Justin Verlander hasn’t been winning as many games as he usually does, but that won’t stop him from pitching at the Midsummer Classic. He currently has the third-highest WAR of any pitcher in the AL, behind Felix Hernandez and his teammate, Anibal Sanchez, according to FanGraphs. There’s no doubt he’ll get selected to be on the AL’s roster.
For one, Verlander is one of the top pitchers in baseball no matter what his statistics say. On the other hand, Jim Leyland, his coach, is the AL’s manager since the Tigers made it to the World Series last year. It’s highly unlikely that Leyland would snub one of his guys, especially since Verlander is such a dominant pitcher.
All-Star Game Odds: 93 Percent
1. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers
25 of 26| 66 | .354 | .448 | .631 | 18 | 69 | 4.0 |
Simply put, Miguel Cabrera is the best player in baseball—and it’s not even very close. While his defense isn’t stellar, he’s easily the top bat in the game and one that no pitcher ever wants to face. Carlos Gomez is the only player in Major League Baseball with a higher WAR, and that’s bound to change eventually, according to FanGraphs.
Not only is Cabrera a feared hitter, he’s also a fan favorite across the nation—and not just in Detroit. He currently has more votes than any other player in the AL, and it’s probably going to stay that way until voting closes.
Cabrera deserves every single one of those votes too. If he isn’t starting at third base for the AL, there will be something very, very wrong.
All-Star Game Odds: 100 Percent
Complete All-Star Game Odds
26 of 26Here's a composite list of all of the top 25-ranked players in Major League Baseball and their odds of being selected to play in the 2013 MLB All-Star Game.
| Miguel Cabrera | 1B | Detroit Tigers | 100 percent |
| Joey Votto | 1B | Cincinnati Reds | 96 percent |
| Mike Trout | OF | Los Angeles Angels | 96 percent |
| Justin Verlander | SP | Detroit Tigers | 93 percent |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | New York Yankees | 93 percent |
| Buster Posey | C | San Francisco Giants | 93 percent |
| Clayton Kershaw | SP | Los Angeles Dodgers | 93 percent |
| Cliff Lee | SP | Philadelphia Phillies | 93 percent |
| Felix Hernandez | SP | Seattle Mariners | 93 percent |
| Prince Fielder | 1B | Detroit Tigers | 90 percent |
| Evan Longoria | 3B | Tampa Bay Rays | 86 percent |
| Jose Bautista | OF | Toronto Blue Jays | 80 percent |
| Andrew McCutchen | OF | Pittsburgh Pirates | 80 percent |
| Ryan Braun | OF | Milwaukee Brewers | 80 percent |
| Craig Kimbrel | RP | Atlanta Braves | 75 percent |
| Adrian Beltre | 3B | Texas Rangers | 73 percent |
| Giancarlo Stanton | OF | Miami Marlins | 70 percent |
| Matt Cain | SP | San Francisco Giants | 40 percent |
| Stephen Strasburg | SP | Washington Nationals | 30 percent |
| Jered Weaver | SP | Los Angeles Angels | 30 percent |
| David Price | SP | Tampa Bay Rays | 25 percent |
| Cole Hamels | SP | Philadelphia Phillies | 20 percent |
| Albert Pujols | 1B | Los Angeles Angels | 10 percent |
| Josh Hamilton | OF | Los Angeles Angels | 5 percent |
| Matt Kemp | OF | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 percent |
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