Belmont Stakes 2013: Analyzing Palace Malice's Surprising Win over Orb, Oxbow

Palace Malice easily won the 2013 Belmont Stakes, pulling away from Oxbow, Orb and the rest of the field with a magnificent sprint down the home stretch.

By the time Palace Malice and jockey Mike Smith crossed the finish line, they had opened up a huge lead on the field, as noted by The Downey Profile:

Thanks to modern technology, Palace Malice wasted no time tweeting out his victory:

Right out of the gates, Frac Daddy—from his No. 1 post against the rail—charged out to an early lead, with Freedom Child and Giant Finish trailing close behind. Orb and Oxbow both got out of the gates cleanly, as did Palace Malice.

Oxbow took the lead at one point, with Palace Malice trailing in third place heading into the penultimate turn, while Orb lingered near the back of the pack for a late surge. 

Smith prompted Palace Malice to go full bore heading into the final turn, and the horse rounded the corner down the straightaway as if shot out of a cannon. Oxbow, Orb and the rest of the field looked slow by comparison, and in the end Palace Malice won by a wide margin.

Here are the final results of the 14-horse field.

2013 Belmont Stakes Results
Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Post	Payout
1	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	12	$29.60 (Win) $11.20 (Place) $6.20 (Show)
2	Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	7	$9.90 (Place) $6.10 (Show)
3	Orb	Joel Rosario	Shug McGaughey	5	$3.90 (Show)
4	Incognito	Irad Ortiz Jr.	Kiaran McLaughlin	6
5	Revolutionary	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	9
6	Unlimited Budget	Rosie Napravnik	Todd Pletcher	13
7	Overanalyze	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	3
8	Vyjack	Julien Leparoux	Rudy Rodriguez	11
9	Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	14
10	Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	10
11	Giant Finish	Edgar Prado	Anthony Dutrow	4
12	Midnight Taboo	Garrett Gomez	Todd Pletcher	8
13	Freedom Child	Luis Saez	Tom Albertrani	2
14	Frac Daddy	Alan Garcia	Ken McPeek	1

*Odds based on $2 bet, courtesy the NBC Sports broadcast.

After a 12th-place finish at the Kentucky Derby, there wasn't a lot of buzz surrounding this particular Todd Pletcher-trained horse. Revolutionary—not Palace Malice—was supposed to challenge Orb and Oxbow for the wreath of carnations.

ESPN Stats & Info highlighted Palace Malice's improbable victory after such an abysmal showing at the Derby, reporting it was the third-worst showing at the Derby by an eventual Belmont winner:

Pletcher made a huge change after Palace Malice's disappointing finish at the Derby, however, that seemed to make all the difference in the world at the Belmont Stakes. After putting blinkers on the horse at Churchill Downs, he decided to abstain from doing the same thing at Belmont, according to Sports Network (via the Miami Herald):

"

The blinkers that jazzed him up in the Kentucky Derby come off and we anticipate no problem with pace or distance. He always rated kindly in previous races, and he will be in good hands with Mike Smith.

"

And he was in good hands with Smith, who guided the colt to a masterful run on the grueling mile-and-a-half (12 furlongs) track at Belmont Park. 

Fresh legs also had something to do with Palace Malice's strong finish. Oxbow and Orb both ran in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, while Pletcher held his horse out of the Preakness to keep him fresh for the final leg.

In fact, Palace Malice was the seventh horse since 2000 to win the Belmont after running in the Derby and then skipping the Preakness. 

Palace Malice's place in history is now secure. This horse will now see his descendants favored as potential Belmont winners, as he proved without a shadow of doubt to have the pedigree to conquer "The Test of Champions."

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