NBA Draft 2013: Low-Risk Prospects Worth a Lottery Selection

Drafting future NBA talent is a risky venture. There’s no such thing as a surefire selection, regardless of the hype surrounding some of the draft’s top players.

Sure, players like LeBron James and Kevin Durant were expected to be future superstars, but for every early selection who panned out, there is another that saw injuries, inconsistency or a simple lack of talent derail his career, despite the talk of future MVP awards and championship rings.

This year’s draft class will be no different. While there isn’t a truly elite prospect available this year, there are several players that are considered better than the rest.

Among them are Kentucky center Nerlens Noel and UNLV forward Anthony Bennett, each of whom is expected to come off the board in the first five picks. While both players come with some inherent risk (Noel for his recovering knee and Bennett for his ambiguous positional fit), the reward will undoubtedly outweigh that risk.

But for other top players in this class, there is a lot less risk involved for teams hoping to make them a lottery selection. We’ll take a look at three of them and break down why each is among the lowest-risk prospects in the 2013 NBA draft.

3. Victor Oladipo: SG/SF, Indiana

Indiana Hoosiers swingman Victor Oldaipo seemingly came out of nowhere during the 2012-13 season, putting together a campaign that would be one of the best seasons of any player in the nation.

While Oladipo wasn’t exactly a complete unknown, few expected him to carry the Hoosiers throughout the season. He had some help from a tremendous supporting cast that included center Cody Zeller (another potential lottery pick), but it was Oladipo that defined the dominance Indiana exerted over many of the top teams in college basketball.

What makes Oladipo a low-risk prospect is simple: He’s a hard worker who plays defense and can make big shots.

The same can be said for a lot of top prospects, but few have the athleticism and pure talent of the swingman. With good size (6’5”) and all the intangibles to be a terrific NBA wing, he’ll no doubt garner a lot of attention from teams picking in the top 10.

Those particular selections place a premium on talent and upside. The latter category sometimes defines a player’s risk, but the former is almost always a clear indication of what a team can expect from a player in his formative NBA years.

Oladipo may not be a 20-plus points-per-game scorer in his first few years, but he has the shooting ability, basketball acumen and willingness to play tough defense that will make him an instant contributor, safe of the dreaded “bust” label we’re so quick to slap on underperforming NBA newcomers.

2. Otto Porter: SF, Georgetown

Like Oladipo, Georgetown forward Otto Porter does a lot of things well. In fact, he does more things well than any player in this class.

Porter is an excellent on-ball defender who also rebounds, moves well without the ball in his hands and finds ways to score both close to the rim and on the perimeter. He doesn’t stand out in any particular area, but every facet of his game is tailor-made for the NBA level.

With the right team, Porter can be an instant contributor at both ends of the floor. Even on a team that won’t cater to his exact playing style, there’s little risk of Porter failing to meet expectations—regardless of how early in the draft he’s selected.

Some consider Porter a candidate to jump both Noel and McLemore to be selected No. 1 overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers. While that scenario still seems highly unlikely, it wouldn’t be a completely unrealistic move for a team still looking to replace LeBron James at the small forward position.

But any way you slice it, Porter doesn’t carry the same risk of many players in this draft, especially at the top of the board. He’ll be an instant contributor and potential star, and he’ll do so without bringing up concerns of his NBA readiness or ability to develop at the next level.

1. Ben McLemore: SG, Kansas

Some believe Ben McLemore’s shortcomings will define his early years in the NBA. While there are certainly some facets in which the Kansas shooting guard has to improve, he’s by no means a high-risk prospect, even if he is selected in the first three picks.

McLemore was the purest long-range shooter in all of college basketball last season, and given the comparisons to Ray Allen, it’s easy to understand why so many teams will be salivating over the 6’5” guard as the draft draws closer. With the size, quick release and massive potential McLemore possesses, he’s easily one of the most intriguing guards in this class.

McLemore does struggle to create his own scoring chances, but that’s often a shortcoming that can be improved upon with the right coach and in the right system. He simply needs more experience—and it’s easy to forget he only had one year of that at the college level.

Every team is in need of a player who can knock down a shot from anywhere on the floor. McLemore is that player and a whole lot more, and there will likely be a few teams hoping to strike a deal to trade into the top three to acquire him.

One could argue that shooting guards are most susceptible to the “bust” label often applied early-lottery draft picks, and that thought process makes sense considering the quantifiable measures we often use to gauge a player’s success.

Unlike forwards and centers (who can sometimes skate by with a 10-plus rebounds-per-game average), shooting guards are measured by points and three-point percentage.

At the NBA level, both of those are difficult areas in which to excel, especially with a deeper three-point line and the presence of much bigger, quicker defenders. But McLemore’s shooting ability is tremendous, and with the size and athleticism to match, there’s little chance he comes up short of expectations at the NBA level.

Like Oladipo and Porter, McLemore won’t challenge for the scoring title in his formative seasons, but he’ll certainly produce in his rookie year, especially if he is surrounded with enough talent to take some pressure off his young shoulders.