The Next Series Could Define the Pirates' 2009

It's a bit dangerous to say that ONE series will define a team for a whole season. But some series' are clearly more important than others. For instance, a series against another team in the same division counts for twice as much as a series outside your division, because your LOSS is the other team's WIN.

There's no saying, yes, we lost to San Diego last Friday, but [divisional opponent X] lost to the LA Dodgers the same night, so we're even. Moreover, the largest number of games are played against division rivals, so what happens in April could be a "litmus test" for the whole season against this rival.

Therefore, the next series could be defining for the Pirates because it is on the road, against the Milwaukee Brewers, and their three best pitchers. The second from the bottom team in the NL Central? Yes, because of the history of the two teams, and other tough conditions (Miller Park, and no games against Jeff Suppan or Manny Parra).

In 2008, the Pirates were 1-14 against the Brewers. The only other showing even nearly this bad was the 4-17 record against the two Chicago teams, the Cubs and the White Sox. That's a dismal 5-31 against Milwaukee and Chicago.

The 67-95 Pirates were actually 62-64, a whisker away from .500, against the rest of Major League Baseball, last year. So how they do against the Brewers (and Cubs) may well determine whether the Pirates are a .500-ish (or better) team, or whether they are out of it again.

The early prognosis is not good. Tonight, Jeff Karstens, arguably the Pirates' worst starter, takes on Braden Looper, a better pitcher, who has given the Pirates trouble in the past, making the Bucs a decided underdog. Tomorrow, Paul Maholm, the ace, goes against "almost no hit" Bush, a no-better than 50-50 shot. And it is probably stretching it to say that Ian Snell has a 50-50 chance on Wednesday against Yovani Gallardo. All told, I expect the Pirates to (somehow) win one game out of three, with the implications discussed below.

Still the series will likely answer some important questions. Can the Pirates' supposedly rejuvenated rotation actually suppress the production of the admittedly light-hitting Brewers below what Pirate hitters can do against the Brewers' three best starters?

And is player depth great enough that "the bench" can somehow get it done with key players missing from the lineup? And can the Pirates prevail against their toughest opponent under the worst conditions possible, perhaps making it "downhill" from here?

Assuming that they are at all indicative of the season series, here's what the possible results of THIS series could mean for the Pirates, relative to their 2008 base.

3-0—Unlikely, but a reversal of last year's season results would BY ITSELF put the Pirates close to .500, and improvements elsewhere should propel them to the division championship and beyond.

2-1—Winning the majority of the games against a tough division rival would give the Pirates a .500 record in the  Central Division so far in 2009, and improvements elsewhere should make them at least second in the division, enough for a wildcard berth if they continue beating teams in the NL East and West.

1-2—Winning a significant minority of games against the Brewers would establish a floor in the low 70s for Pirates' wins, and push the Pirates toward .500, assuming improvements elsewhere.

0-3—Limited improvement over last season (two or three wins instead of one) should push the Pirates over 70 wins, assuming modest improvement elsewhere, but that's all.

Pay attention to this series. It would not be surprising if the Pirates' overall 2009 result corresponds to the outcome, as laid out above.