MMA Stock Projection for May: Whom to Bet On, Whom to Avoid

The UFC brings two cards to us in May. The first, UFC on FX 8, is headlined by a middleweight contender's bout between Vitor Belfort and Luke Rockhold. That will be followed by the UFC Heavyweight Championship bout between Cain Velasquez and Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva at UFC 160.

On tap are 24 fights, with plenty of opportunities for upsets and failures along the way. Such is life in the sport of MMA.

The matchmakers do not make life easy for anyone, especially oddsmakers and bettors alike.

Here is whom to bet on and whom to avoid in the fights coming your way in May.

Bet: John Lineker

John Lineker, ranked No. 8 in the official UFC flyweight rankings, will have his hands full with Azamat Gashimov on the Facebook prelims at UFC on FX 8. But you should still bet on him in this affair.

The matchup suits him, and he should be able to walk out of the Octagon as the victor.

Also, Gashimov's abilities should keep the spread low. That will be a good enough reason to play Lineker early.

As with any MMA bout, the risk of upset exists. Gashimov is a skilled competitor, but this will be his first fight at flyweight. He's being tossed in with one of the better fighters in the division. In the sink-or-swim mentality of the UFC, he will find it hard to tread water against Lineker.

Avoid: Hacran Dias and Nik Lentz

Nik Lentz is ranked No. 10 in the official UFC featherweight rankings, and Hacran Dias cannot be too far behind. Lentz will likely be the slight favorite by fight time.

The reason to avoid this fight is simple—it's too close to call.

Unless  the spread makes one of them a sizable underdog, it is best to leave this fight be.

Dias and Lentz are two of the better featherweights in the division, and this is a pick 'em fight. Lentz could suffocate Dias for three rounds, or the talented Brazilian could earn himself a spot in the Top 10. You might as well pick a name from a hat.

Avoid: Rafael Dos Anjos

Rafael dos Anjos is making a run in the lightweight division, but his current three-fight win streak is a bit misleading.

All three wins came against solid competition (Kamal Shalorus, Anthony Njokuani and Mark Bocek), but Evan Dunham is a different and more dynamic fighter than those opponents.

Dos Anjos may in fact win this fight and prove he belongs in the upper echelon of the division, but what makes me say to avoid him are the current odds. Bovada already has him listed as a -200 favorite.

Those aren't the best numbers to lay on dos Anjos for this fight. Dunham is a live dog, and it is too big of a risk for such a small return on the Brazilian.

Bet: Jacare

Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza is the favorite for his first UFC encounter. The former Strikeforce middleweight champion will meet No. 6 UFC middleweight Costa Philippou.

Bet on Jacare. Now.

He is still a modest -230 on several betting sites right now, and that will probably increase by fight time. Money will come in on him soon.

Philippou is a solid fighter, but he hasn't met anyone like Jacare.

This is a bad matchup for Philippou. Jacare should be one of the few virtual locks, if there is such a thing in MMA, on the UFC on FX 8 card. His striking has looked much improved in recent bouts, and his ground game is certainly much better than Philippou's.

Get in on Jacare early.

Update: Philippou has been forced out of the bout vs. Jacare with an injury. Chris Camozzi will not take on Jacare.

Bet: Vitor Belfort

When Vitor Belfort steps in to the Octagon against the last Strikeforce middleweight champion, Luke Rockhold, he will be a very slight underdog.

That should tell you right now to bet on Belfort.

I see why Rockhold is the favorite. His style should work well against Belfort. However, this is Rockhold's first time stepping up to the big leagues, and he is headlining against Belfort in Brazil.

Belfort can change the fight in an instant. Ask a long list of mixed martial artists, including UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Belfort's speed and power should make him a solid bet in the night's main event.

Bet: K.J. Noons

K.J. Noons vs. Donald Cerrone at UFC 160 may be one of the better fights of the month. It could turn into a dogfight.

Noons is currently more than a 2/1 underdog in this fight. Considering Cerrone's propensity to have a brawl, I think playing Noons is a solid idea.

If Cerrone stands in front of Noons, he could get clipped. Noons is a skill boxer with good power, and he works the body very well. Over the course of a fight, that could pay off.

This comes down to how Cerrone fights. His length will be a factor, and if he uses it well, it will be tough for Noons to find success with his boxing. But if Cerrone breaks down in to another crowd-pleasing barn burner, Noons can end up making a successful UFC debut.

Bet: Gray Maynard

T.J. Grant and Gray Maynard will fight for the next UFC lightweight title shot. It is an interesting matchup, but Maynard's top game looks to be too much for Grant.

Maynard is currently hovering around the -200 mark. A solid play.

Maynard has honed his striking in the past year against the likes of Jose Aldo and at AKA. Add that to his wrestling base, and he could return from a lengthy hiatus even more dangerous. Grant has looked great, but this matchup plays into the hands of Maynard.

This is a big step up for Grant, and I suspect it will be a bit too much.

Bet: Glover Teixeira

One of the most dangerous light heavyweights in the game is under -300? I think this is easy money.

James Te Huna was lucky to get past Ryan Jimmo at UFC on Fuel TV 7. Teixeira is on another level, and if Te Huna gives him the same opportunity, it will be lights out.

What is more likely is that Teixeira will take this fight to the mat and brutalize the New Zealander. The referee will stop this bout.

The odds are not too outrageous at the moment, which makes Teixeira an excellent play at UFC 160.

Avoid: Mark Hunt

This one should come with an asterisk. Do not bet on Hunt...yet.

Hunt is riding a great win streak and has a puncher's chance if Junior dos Santos decides to exchange with him on the feet, but the odds are not good enough yet. Hunt is still under +300 on Bovada.

Hunt should be a huge underdog, and the odds are not reflecting that right now. I suppose the likelihood of JDS boxing with a former K-1 world champion has oddsmakers a bit nervous—for good reason.

However, an intelligent MMA fan cannot deny that this should be an easy win for dos Santos, if he chooses to make it that way. Until the odds start to go up on Hunt, steer clear.

Avoid: Bigfoot Silva

I don't care that he is nearing +500 on several books. Do not bet on Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva.

We have seen this fight before, and nothing will change in the rematch. Cain Velasquez is going to maul him. Period.

Do not go down the slippery slope of betting because the odds are "too good to pass up." That will only leave you with lint in your pocket. Be smart. If you aren't smart and need a refresher, watch their previous encounter again. That will tell you the story.

The only way to bet on Silva is if you can find someone to take a 1,000-1 bet, and even then you may only want to risk 50 cents.

The champion will retain the belt easily.