Odds of Each San Francisco 49ers Rookie Earning a Starting Job in 2013

With the 2013 NFL Draft now complete, the San Francisco 49ers have now emerged as favorites to win the 2013 Super Bowl.

It is pretty easy to understand why.

First, the 49ers came into the draft already loaded with a talented roster.  They also enjoyed having 13 picks to utilize however they saw fit during the draft.  Employing a series of trades and smart selections, San Francisco was able to add to their already dominant franchise with a number of key players who will certainly have substantial impact at the NFL level.

Yet one thing was clear before the 49ers entered draft day.  San Francisco's roster, already deep, did not need 13 prospects.  In reality, there were only a few glaring needs that the team needed to address.  The draft helped alleviate such needs and the 49ers appear to be in great shape heading forward.

Obviously, the first few selections made by the 49ers figure to be "impact caliber" in the immediate, or at least, near future.  Yet other players picked up by San Francisco in the later rounds may not see action in 2013 at all.  Even still, some may not even make the 53-man roster.

Eric Reid, the 49ers' first-round draft choice, will likely have an immediate impact this upcoming season.  In comparison, Marcus Lattimore, who was selected in the fourth round, will likely spend his first NFL season on the PUP list, rehabilitating from the terrible knee injury incurred during his final collegiate season.

All things considered, the newest class of San Francisco 49ers rookies will have to compete to earn their way onto the 49ers' depth chart.  Head coach Jim Harbaugh loves competition and will undoubtedly be looking for rookies to establish themselves early and often.

By evaluating each rookie, his position in the draft, combined with the quantity and quality of his competition in training camp, I come up with a ratio determining the odds behind each rookie having a starting job in a standard formation. 

Here is a breakdown of each 49ers rookie and his chances of earning a starting job this upcoming season. 

The Undrafted Free Agents

In the wake of the draft, there is usually a rush from teams scrambling to sign multitudes of undrafted free agents that slipped through the draft.

Yet the 49ers do not need to take a significant look at undrafted free agents whose names were not called upon during the draft.  As stated before, San Francisco already has a loaded roster with the majority of their starters and backups already locked for the upcoming season.

However, if one thing is certain, it is the fact that Jim Harbaugh loves competition and will not hesitate to provide it at virtually every position.

Currently, the 49ers have signed two of these free agents, one of which is British Olympian Lawrence Okoye.  Okoye, who has never played football at any level, can at least bring other tremendous attributes to the 49ers. 

Sports Xchange's Derek Harper describes how the 49ers got their hands on him:

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Okoye blew up the workout, was invited to another regional combine in Dallas, vaulted up draft boards in recent weeks despite having never played a down of football but ultimately went undrafted. He landed in a good spot with the 49ers, who have a loaded roster and spent several of their 11 draft picks on boom-or-bust type prospects. (via cbssports.com)

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If anything, Okoye may prove to be a decent addition at something.  What that something is though will remain uncertain.  He has the physical abilities to provide an impact, but will the extreme lack of experience cost him a starting job in 2013?

Absolutely.

Okoye will not be starting in 2013.  The odds of him finding a starting job are 15-to-1 in my book which is being generous and recognizing his physical skill set.  He has far too much to learn even if he is playing under the tutelage of one of the top coaching contingents in the NFL today.  Fortunately, however, he will at least provide some competition and maybe even work his way onto the depth chart... somewhere.

In addition, the 49ers invited quarterback Nate Montana, son of the 49ers' venerable Hall of Famer, to their rookies' minicamp.  He is, however, an unsigned free agent and considering his less-than-stellar collegiate career, it is unlikely that San Francisco will even sign him giving the junior Montana a 10-to-1 shot of being signed let alone starting.  If he is signed, the practice squad would be calling.

Former Azusa Pacific offensive tackle Luke Marquardt was recently signed by the 49ers.  Yet for a player coming out of a school not typically linked to top-tier NFL prospects, it is a long shot that Marquardt would make the 53-man roster.  Even if he did, Marquardt would probably best be served as a backup on the offensive line.  He also is still recovering from a foot injury that hampered his senior year.  Yet the 49ers appear to be interested in developing the young tackle into an effective piece down the road (sfgate.com).  For now however, I give Marquardt a 15-to-1 shot of earning a starting position, which banks on an impressive training camp and injury recovery combined with a multitude off injuries that could impact the offensive line.

Other names have also been linked to the 49ers including long snapper Kevin McDermott, guard Patrick Omameh, quarterback MarQueis Gray, center Sherman Carter, cornerback Darryl Morris, wide receiver Chuck Jacobs, defensive tackle Mike Purcell, fullback Alex Debniak and running back D.J. Harper.  Considering the already established depth San Francisco has at each of these positions, it would be extremely unlikely that any of them would have a starting job, let alone a spot on the 49ers' 53-man roster.

In addition, San Francisco has yet to sign any of these undrafted free agents despite the rumored interest.  Yet competition, being what it is, may be worth watching during training camp.

Cornerback Marcus Cooper

With their final pick in the seventh round of the draft, the 49ers selected cornerback Marcus Cooper out of Rutgers.

Cooper totaled 42 tackles and one interception his senior year at Rutgers (sports-reference.com).  At 6' 2" and 192 pounds, Cooper has the physical attributes to make an impact at the NFL level.  The question will be whether or not he will be able to make the transition from college quickly enough to earn him a spot on the 49ers' 53-man roster.

There is no doubting that the 49ers needed help in their secondary and San Francisco's corners still remain a question mark.

Cooper will be forced to compete on the depth chart with veteran corners Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown, Chris Culliver, Tramaine Brock, Perrish Cox and the recently signed Nnamdi Asomugha.  Cooper may be able to bump either Brock or Cox down on the depth chart somewhat if he shows the ability in camp, yet it is unlikely that he will wind up moving any higher than that.

At best, Cooper will likely be competing for a mere reserve role on the 49ers' roster (cbssports.com).  While it is possible that he may turn some heads during training camp, do not expect him to be making a major impact starting Week 1.  As far as him making it to the top two corner positions, I would not bank on odds larger than 13-to-1.  He would have to climb over two decent, if not stellar, corners and then push past veterans Asomugha, Brown or Culliver. 

Unless two out of those three are downright terrible, it is not going to happen.

Offensive Tackle Carter Bykowski

The 49ers drafted offensive tackle Carter Bykowski with the 246th overall pick.

The former Iowa State tackle actually fills a substantial need for San Francisco.  The 49ers undoubtedly have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  The line, consisting of Alex Boone, Anthony Davis, Jonathan Goodwin, Mike Iupati and Joe Staley, remained intact all of 2012 and shall hope for similar fortunes in the upcoming season.

Yet there is not a lot of depth behind the starters. 

Fortunately for San Francisco, the offensive line did not need to rely on depth as none of their starters missed significant time due to injury.  The 49ers may not be so lucky in 2013.

Bykowski will certainly not be starting atop the depth chart going into the preseason.  The only way he works himself into a starting role is if, by chance, one of the 49ers' tackles is hurt either in the preseason or at any point during the regular season.

Fortunately, Bykowski is a big guy.  At 6' 7" and 306 pounds, he adds size to the equation and can at least plug a gap if necessary.

If the 49ers' offensive line remains healthy like it did last year, fans will not see much of Bykowski.  Yet if one or more injuries plague the line, Bykowski may earn himself, albeit temporarily, a starting job.

Considering this, and the fact that there is limited depth, Bykowski's chances of earning a starting job on the offensive line is not terrible.  I give him a 5-to-1 chance, recognizing that the 49ers' offensive line may not be as lucky regarding injuries as it was last season.

Quarterback B.J. Daniels

As previously stated, Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers coaching staff love providing competition, even if all signs point to a particular position and its depth being locked up for the upcoming season.

Such was the case when San Francisco drafted former South Florida quarterback B.J. Daniels with the 237th overall pick.

Incumbent quarterback Colin Kaepernick shall be the starter in 2013.  There is no question surrounding that.  Scott Tolzien and Colt McCoy will also compete as the backups for Kaepernick.  Now, the 49ers add Daniels to the competition mix.

It is an interesting move for a team that appears on the surface to have its top-three quarterbacks already lined up and ready for the upcoming season.  Given Harbaugh's desire to have all his players earn their jobs, however, Daniels' drafting starts to make a little more sense.  Tolzien has yet to make a significant impact at the NFL level.  McCoy, once heralded as a potential star, may benefit from the change in scenery after his mediocre tenure in Cleveland.  Daniels will certainly motivate both potential backups to work harder in the preseason.

He also has the versatility to develop into a possible hybrid-style quarterback similar to Kaepernick.

Daniels understands the situation.  He stated via a twitter feed:

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Just spoke with Coach Harbaugh and Coach Roman, they see me playing quarterback and possibly some special teams! Ready to put in work! (via ninersnation.com)

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It appears that Harbaugh knew what he wanted when San Francisco drafted Daniels.  While it is a distant shot for Daniels to make the opening day roster, it is not entirely impossible.  His skill set is something that the 49ers coaching staff will enjoy working with.

CSN Bay Area 49er Insider Matt Maiocco described Daniels by saying:

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The 49ers see an opportunity for the team's No. 3 quarterback to do a lot more than just play quarterback. Daniels, a seventh-round draft pick, will compete with McCoy and Scott Tolzien for a spot behind starter Colin Kaepernick. If Daniels is the No. 3 quarterback, he might be able to earn a role on game days because of his versatility. He could be a spare running back and wide receiver, as well as contribute on special teams. (csnbayarea.com)

"

If Daniels impresses enough during training camp and thwarts either Tolzien or McCoy on the depth chart, it is plausible that fans may see him on the field at times in 2013. 

At that point however, Daniels will still not be starting unless he shows something that almost every other team in the draft missed.  I would give him 3-to-1 odds of making an appearance in a special "package" on offense, but as far as the starting job is concerned, the likelihood is closer to 12-to-1.

Linebacker Nick Moody

With the 180th pick taking place in the sixth round, the 49ers drafted former Florida State linebacker Nick Moody.

When fans think of 49er linebackers, they think of Navorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis.  They probably will not be thinking of Moody any time soon.

In four years at Florida State, Moody totaled 155 tackles as well as two sacks.  He also had one interception for a touchdown (sports-reference.com).  Those stats, however, came when Moody was playing as a safety before making the transition to linebacker.

While the versatility is nice, Moody figures to add only depth behind the starting 49er linebackers.  In that sense, it is a solid move.  The previous backup linebacker Larry Grant is a free agent and San Francisco has not made any attempts to re-sign him.

Moody may also be able to contribute on special teams, something that the recently signed linebacker Dan Skuta also hopes to do.

Yet that does not mean that Moody will be joining the final roster when the regular season commences.  If that were to happen, Moody would have to prove himself significantly in order to justify a roster spot.  The depth is nice, but it is no guarantee for the young linebacker.

Considering how effective the 49er linebacker corps already is, the only way Moody makes his way into a starting job would be a result of injury.  That is possible though and Moody can spell the inside linebacker position very well.  With that in mind, 7-to-1 odds are safe enough.

Defensive Tackle Quinton Dial

The 49ers added both depth and versatility when they drafted former Alabama defensive tackle Quinton Dial in the fifth round.

San Francisco had clear intentions to make some upgrades on their defensive front, especially after the loss of veterans Isaac Sopoaga and Ricky Jean-Francois to free agency.  The 49ers attempted to counter their departures by signing former first-round draft pick Glenn Dorsey to a two-year, $6 million contract.  Yet Dorsey underachieved during his tenure in Kansas City and there are no guarantees whether or not his game-play will improve in a San Francisco uniform.

In addition, the 49ers are also concerned with the situation surrounding aging star Justin Smith.  Smith's injury during the latter half of the 2012 season hampered San Francisco's defense significantly and it was apparent that his eventual departure, possibly after the 2013 season, would be a major concern.

Fortunately, San Francisco was able to get its hands on Dial.

Although he is best suited to play defensive tackle, Dial has the attributes and capability to play at both ends as well.  This factor gives the 49ers' defense much more versatility and security if anything were to happen along the defensive front next season.

Dial will enter training camp in competition with Dorsey at the starting defensive tackle position.  Dorsey should get the starting nod, however, and it is most likely that Dial will serve as a backup, not only at the defensive tackle position, but also at either end.

If Dial is able to make the 53-man roster, he will not only be able to provide the insurance as a legitimate backup, but also act as a spell-man keeping the starters fresh throughout games.

Keeping Dial's potential to compete with Dorsey along with the fact that he can serve as a backup on either end of the line, Dial's chances of earning a starting job at some point during the season are reasonable.  5-to-1 is my choice.

Running Back Marcus Lattimore

One of the better "feel good" stories of the 2013 NFL Draft was the selection of former South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore by the 49ers with their 131st overall pick.

Once being heralded as a top-tier running back prospect, Lattimore suffered a horrific knee injury which not only ended his collegiate career, but also thwarted his hopes of becoming a high draft pick (huffingtonpost.com).

While there is no doubting Lattimore's talents on the field, there are, and will continue to be, questions regarding how his injury will affect his NFL career.

Fortunately, Lattimore landed with the 49ers.  Considered to be the "steal" of the 2013 draft, this factor alone gives both San Francisco and Lattimore a "best-case" scenario.  First, Lattimore joins a team already known for drafting a talented, yet injured, running back and turning him into one of the best in the game: Frank Gore.  Gore will still start for the 49ers in 2013 and also has serviceable backups with LaMichael James and Kendall Hunter. 

Gore will also be able to provide his own expertise on injury recovery and how it helped him transform into one of the elite running backs in the NFL.

In addition, Lattimore can be placed on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list and spend all of 2013 rehabbing his injured knee.  While Lattimore would probably love to have a direct impact in 2013, it is best for him to return at 100 percent before taking the field.

Jim Harbaugh already loves the work that Lattimore has put into his recovery, but he is also adamant about not getting Lattimore onto the field too quickly.  He stated:

"

I love the aggressive mental approach he has taken through this whole process, but we’re going to slow down the aggressive physical things and make sure Marcus is 100 percent healthy before he goes out there on the field. If he doesn’t play this year, then he doesn’t play this year. (via cbslocal.com)

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When he does take the field, Lattimore will be the heir to Gore's impressive legacy.

However, I cannot fathom him being on the field during 2013.  With that in mind, Lattimore's odds of making it to a starting role and somehow thwarting the depth of backs currently ahead of him, drop his chances to 50-to-1.

Wide Receiver Quinton Patton

If there was another steal for the 49ers in this year's draft, one could argue it was former Louisiana Tech wide receiver Quinton Patton.

Drafted in the fourth round with the 128th overall pick, San Francisco gets its hands on a solid route runner with both size and hands to match.  His impact may be immediately felt opening day and into the regular season.

For starters, the 49ers' wide receiver situation was not as clear-cut as it may have seemed.  Michael Crabtree and the recently-acquired Anquan Boldin shall be the top two receivers without doubt.  Behind that, only questions remain.  Both Mario Manningham and Kyle Williams are returning from significant injuries suffered last year and neither appear to be ready by the start of training camp.  In addition, last year's first-round draft choice A.J. Jenkins has not lived up to expectations.

Lastly, Boldin, Manningham and Williams may depart via free agency after 2013.

Considering those factors, it is possible and likely that Patton may have much more of an impact than any of the rookies mentioned thus far.

In two seasons at Louisiana Tech, Patton totaled 183 receptions for 2,594 yards and 24 touchdowns (sports-reference.com).  The 49ers hope those stats can transfer over to the NFL level.

Patton also may be suited well for a slot receiver considering his excellent route-running ability.  The 49ers could also benefit from that (csnbayarea.com).

In addition, Patton could also see time returning both kick-offs and punts, areas San Francisco struggled in last season.

Patton will have to compete with the rest of the 49ers' receiving corps, but given his accolades combined with the nature of the remaining wide-outs, it is very likely that he will have a significant role in 2013.

Unless Boldin and/or Crabtree are hurt at some point in the season, Patton will not be a part of a base offense.  Yet an injury to either one of the top two receivers is plausible which increase Patton's chances of becoming a starter to 4-to-1.

Linebacker Corey Lemonier

San Francisco took a shot at former Auburn linebacker Corey Lemonier with the 88th overall pick.

In three years at Auburn, Lemonier totaled 98 tackles (24 of them for a loss) along with 17 sacks (sports-reference.com). 

Those stats alone would suggest that Lemonier could thrive as a pass-rusher.  Yet the 49ers already have a tremendous pass-rushing linebacker in Aldon Smith and Lemonier does not figure to replace him any time soon.  Instead, the 49ers drafted Lemonier for a very specific purpose.

In 2011, linebacker Parys Haralson spelled Smith on a number of passing plays.  Haralson was a much better coverage back than Smith was at the time.  Yet Haralson spent last season on injured reserve, forcing Smith to perform both pass-rushing and coverage duties over the duration of the season.  This resulted in the eventual struggles Smith incurred after the fatigue and wear of the entire season became significant.

By drafting Lemonier, the 49ers not only ensure that there is an adequate backup at the outside linebacker position, but they also create an opportunity for Lemonier to compete for the coverage linebacker spot along with Haralson.

It is feasible that Lemonier could take over Haralson's role, if not this season, next one for sure.  Haralson will be a free agent after 2013 and Lemonier's drafting appears to make the veteran linebacker expendable.

If Lemonier impresses enough in training camp, fans will be seeing him on opening day spelling Smith on passing downs.

Lemonier will surely see some snaps especially during some of the nickel and dime formations employed by San Francisco.  Yet he would have to compete with Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks for the two starting positions and, unless injuries are a factor, Brooks and Smith are not going anywhere.  Because of this, odds of him starting at any point this year are 5-to-1.

Tight End Vance McDonald

One of the predominant needs the 49ers had going into the draft was a second tight end.  The loss of Delanie Walker via free agency was a significant blow to San Francisco's offense.  Walker was one of those tight ends who could do just about anything; exceptional blocking as well as slotting and lining up anywhere along the line.

With Walker gone, San Francisco needed to examine its options at the position.  Electing to pass on the higher-profiled tight ends such as Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz, the 49ers instead drafted former Rice tight end Vance McDonald with their 55th overall pick.

McDonald is a great option for San Francisco.  First, both Eifert and Ertz may not be best suited for the type of job the 49ers are looking for in a tight end.  Either may have been a plausible replacement for starting tight end Vernon Davis at some point, but the 49ers needed to replace Walker, not Davis.

That is where the flexibility and versatility of McDonald enter into play.

Like Walker, McDonald is the type of player who can line up at nearly any option along the offensive line.  He can play slot receiver, on the wing, act as a fullback and play on both ends of the line. 

McDonald's blocking could use some work, but he has excellent size to make it happen.  Remember, both Davis and Walker were not the best blockers early in their respective careers either.

CSN Bay Area 49er Insider Matt Maiocco highlights what McDonald will mean for the 49ers:

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McDonald joins Garrett Celek and veteran pickup Cameron Morrah as the only tight ends on the roster behind starter Vernon Davis. McDonald played slot receiver as a junior and split time at slot and tight end as a senior. He has a chance to take over as the No. 2 tight end as the 49ers move on without Delanie Walker. McDonald has excellent size, which should enable him to develop quickly as a blocker. He had the second-longest arms (34.38 inches) of any tight end at the NFL scouting combine. (csnbayarea.com)

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McDonald will certainly not be atop the depth chart at tight end.  That spot is reserved for Davis.  Yet San Francisco utilizes much more double-tight end sets than most teams in the league and McDonald should fit right in with that scheme.

If he does, Walker's departure may not be missed as much as initially anticipated.

In a standard offensive formation, McDonald does not figure to be a starter unless Davis suffers some injury.  That alone would warrant 10-to-1 odds.  Yet if I factor in the 49ers' use of two-tight end sets, the odds of him taking the field jump considerably up to 5-to-4 with only the possibility of a bad training camp setting McDonald back.

Defensive End Cornellius "Tank" Carradine

One of the primary struggles the 49ers endured during last year's run to the Super Bowl was the fact that their pass-rushing game virtually fell silent.

The two main factors behind that were that Justin Smith was not playing at 100 percent and fellow lineman Aldon Smith had been worn down by the time the Super Bowl commenced.  49er fans saw what happened as a result.

Further complicating the issue is the fact that Justin Smith is entering the final year of a six-year, $45 million contract and will be a free agent after the season.  At 33 years old, who knows whether or not San Francisco will bring him back.

Regardless, the 49ers need to find an heir apparent to the services provided by Justin Smith.  They hope to have found exactly that in the second round of the draft by selecting former Florida State defensive end Cornellius "Tank" Carradine.

In two seasons at Florida State, Carradine totaled 118 tackles (21 for a loss) and 16.5 sacks (sports-reference.com).  His pass-rushing abilities are exactly what the 49ers are looking for in seasons to come.

Carradine does come with a significant injury risk as he is currently recovering from an ACL surgery.  Yet he should be able to have a major impact for the 49ers' defense on a multitude of levels.  At the forefront, Carradine shall serve as the primary backup behind Justin Smith and fellow end Ray McDonald.  Yet he may also provide service as another pass-rusher in San Francisco's nickel defense, which has been employed more often under defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.  He will also be able to spell numerous positions almost anywhere along the line.

 CSN Bay Area 49ers Insider Matt Maiocco highlights this fact by stating:

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He can rotate onto the field in pass-rush situations to give breaks to Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith. Carradine is similar in size and health concerns to McDonald coming out of college. With 12-year veteran Justin Smith entering the final year of his contract, Carradine is projected to eventually take his spot. (csnbayarea.com)

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His 34.75" wingspan shall also suit him well.  Sacramento Bee 49er columnist Matt Barrows stresses this by saying:

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For a lineman like Carradine, long arms are essential for keeping offensive lineman from getting their hands on his body and for knocking away blocker's arms. (sacbee.com)

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In Carradine, the 49ers find a "hybrid" type of defender that can have an immediate impact in 2013.  While his impact may be limited at first, Carradine should be a major force in upcoming seasons. 

Fortunately, fans will not have to wait that long to get a good look at his talents.

Considering the possibility that Carradine is the likely replacement for Smith and the fact that Smith may not be at 100 percent next season, it is reasonable to assume that his odds of earning a starting role in 2013 would be at 3-to-1.  If the discussion was expanded to include 2014, I would say that it was 3-to-2.

Safety Eric Reid

Goodbye Dashon Goldson.  Hello Eric Reid.

If the 49ers' offseason and subsequent draft class could be highlighted by one position, it would have to be safety.  After Goldson left the 49ers to sign a free agent deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Francisco was forced to find his replacement.  Fortunately, they were able to land one of the higher ranked prospects with their first pick of the draft.

Trading up to get to the 18th overall pick, San Francisco landed former LSU safety Eric Reid.

In three years at LSU, Reid totaled 199 tackles and six interceptions (sports-reference.com).  His physique is a perfect fit at the position, but perhaps even more important for the 49ers is Reid's tough and aggressive nature, which will fit in well with the current 49er defense.

Niners Nation columnist Steve Busichio relates Reid's toughness to the 49ers' wants.  He writes:

"

Reid is no stranger to playing through pain. In his sophomore year, Reid suffered a partial tear to his quadriceps tendon and only missed one game. He re-aggravated the tendon in 2012 and didn't miss a single game. On top of that, Reid dinged up his shoulder during his junior season but played the entire year and showed good toughness. Now, this of course can be seen as an on-the-field attribute but in my mind, toughness is more mental than anything else and it usually applies across the board. What it shows me is that he's got the guts and determination to overcome adversity, and the willingness to sacrifice himself for the benefit of the team. (ninersnation.com)

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Those attributes are certainly among those that would qualify for the respect of Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers coaching staff.

Despite being selected with the 49ers' first pick in the draft, Reid will still have to compete in training camp, most likely with the recently-signed Craig Dahl.  While it is expected that Reid will beat out Dahl in training camp, nothing is guaranteed and Reid will have to work to show that he is capable of the task.

If that is the case, the 49ers will put high hopes on the rookie safety, expecting him to contribute immediately alongside fellow safety Donte Whitner.

Given his collegiate career and the fortunes that San Francisco hopes to get out of him, Reid should have that immediate impact that 49er fans are hoping for.

The only thing that would prevent Reid from starting in 2013 would be a terrible performance during training camp, combined with exceptional performance from Dahl.  I just do not see that combination taking place.  Because of this, I give Reid 5-to-4 odds for starting opening day.