NBA Playoffs 2013: Making the Upset Case for All 8 Underdogs
The NBA playoffs are officially underway, and eight teams are vying to overcome being the underdog seed and advance to the conference semifinals.
In the Western Conference, the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets are the lower seeds.
In the Eastern Conference, the lower seeds are the Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks.
Only one team in the playoffs has a losing record: The Bucks at 38-44.
However, each lower-seeded team in the playoffs has beaten their first-round opponent at least once during the regular season.
With that, here are the arguments for each lower-seeded team in the playoffs winning their first-round series.
(8) Milwaukee Bucks over (1) Miami Heat
1 of 8It may seem inconceivable that the only team in the playoffs with a losing record can beat a team that's won over 80 percent of its games.
However, the Bucks are a better team than their record indicates. And as the old saying goes, every team is now 0-0.
The Heat lead the season series 3-1 over the Bucks. Their latest matchup happened on April 9, when the Heat beat the Bucks 94-83.
Despite losing three games to the Heat, the Bucks were competitive in nearly all of their meetings. The only blowout that the Heat had against the Bucks was during the Heat's 27-game winning streak.
In the Bucks' lone win against the Heat, the Bucks manhandled the defending champions 104-85 in Milwaukee.
Brandon Jennings led the way for the Bucks with 25 points and seven assists in that game. If the Bucks want to have a chance at shocking the world by upending the Heat in the first round, Jennings will have to play at a high level every game.
The Bucks also have a significant advantage on the boards over the Heat. The Bucks are the league's fifth-best rebounding team, as they pull down nearly 44 boards a game.
However, the Heat are the worst-rebounding team in the NBA, averaging just under 39 a game.
Matchup-wise, the biggest advantages for the Bucks lie in Jennings and center Larry Sanders.
Jennings is one of the league's best point guards and can simply overmatch Mario Chalmers. That may force guys like Wade to help or switch to guard Jennings, which can open up opportunities for other guys.
Sanders is a 6'11" center who averages over nine rebounds a game. He is a huge presence down low and is taller than everybody except Chris Bosh on the Heat's roster. If he can use his edge in size to dominate in the post, the Heat could face some serious matchup problems.
Overall, the Heat are simply the better team. But the Bucks are pesky and have been a thorn in the Heat's side in 2013.
The Heat have everything to prove in this year's playoffs, while the Bucks have nothing to lose. If the Bucks come out with high energy and execute offensively, the possibility for arguably the biggest upset in NBA history may very well be there.
(8) Houston Rockets over (1) Oklahoma City Thunder
2 of 8In a matchup that the NBA's marketing department couldn't be happier about, James Harden gets to take on his old team in the first round as the Houston Rockets face the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder lead the season series 2-1. But perhaps the biggest statement of Harden's tenure with the Rockets came against the Thunder on Feb. 20, when the Rockets won 122-119.
In that game in Houston, Harden poured in 46 points and even added seven rebounds and six assists.
However, the other two games that the Rockets lost to the Thunder were both blowouts of 30 and 22 points.
In the Rockets' win over the Thunder, Kevin Durant was held to just 16 points on 4-of-13 shooting. Keeping Durant under wraps like that will have to be a primary focus for the Rockets if they want to beat the Thunder.
Jeremy Lin will also have to step up for the Rockets in the first round. Russell Westbrook has proven to be one of the best point guards in the league over the past few years. Lin will have to limit Westbrook's production to put more pressure on Durant and the rest of the Thunder.
The Thunder are the third-best scoring team in the NBA, so defense will also be a major factor for the Rockets.
However, the Rockets are the best-scoring team in the league, so shootouts should be expected in this first-round matchup.
Containing Durant and forcing Westbrook into bad decisions can give the Rockets a chance against the Thunder. If their offense continues to put up high numbers, than the Rockets could upend the defending Western Conference champions.
(7) Boston Celtics over (2) New York Knicks
3 of 8The New York Knicks may lead the season series 3-1 over the Boston Celtics, but the Celtics are always one of the most dangerous playoff teams.
Last year as the fourth seed, the Celtics made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals against the Heat. They led 3-2 in that series before the Heat won Games 6 and 7 to advance to the NBA Finals.
In the Celtics' lone win against the Knicks this year, the Celtics won 102-96 at Madison Square Garden. Paul Pierce had 23 points on the night, while scoring champion Carmelo Anthony had 20. Anthony also had a plus-minus of zero that game.
The Celtics actually match up pretty evenly against the Knicks. Their biggest weakness is at the point guard spot.
With no Rajon Rondo, the Celtics have been relying on Avery Bradley and Jason Terry to fill the void. While they have performed well, Raymond Felton and Jason Kidd of the Knicks can certainly handle those two.
Just like they did at the beginning of this year, the Celtics will have to steal a game on the road against the Knicks to have a chance at advancing.
They will also have to defend home court. The atmosphere in Boston will be extremely emotional, so the Celtics will have to find a way to use that energy without letting it distract them from the task at hand.
(7) Los Angeles Lakers over (2) San Antonio Spurs
4 of 8Even without Kobe Bryant, the Los Angeles Lakers are still one of the NBA's hottest teams heading into the playoffs.
The Lakers won eight of their last nine games, including all of their last five to rise from the outside looking in to the seventh seed.
However, their punishment for being the seventh seed is facing the San Antonio Spurs, one of the league's best teams over the past decade.
The Spurs lead the season series 2-1 over the Lakers. The Lakers only win against the Spurs came just a few days ago on April 14, when the Lakers won in Los Angeles 91-86.
In that game, which was the first one without Bryant, Dwight Howard had arguably his best game as a Laker with 26 points and 17 rebounds. Point guard Steve Blake, who was filling in for the injured Steve Nash, added 23 points on the night.
If the Lakers want to have a chance against the Spurs, the flashes of greatness shown at the end of the season by what was once Bryant's supporting cast will have to continue.
The Lakers are a solid offensive team and they crash the boards well. They are the sixth-best scoring team in the league and the fourth-best rebounding team.
While the Spurs are the fourth-best scoring team in the NBA, they are ranked 20th in rebounding. So Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and the rest of the Lakers will have to take advantage of their edge on the boards.
It will be an uphill battle to dethrone the second-seeded Spurs without Bryant. But with the Lakers still playing their best ball of the year, anything is possible.
(6) Atlanta Hawks over (3) Indiana Pacers
5 of 8This Eastern Conference playoff matchup could prove to be the most hotly-contested series in the entire first round.
The season series is tied at 2-2 between the third-seeded Indiana Pacers and the sixth-seeded Atlanta Hawks. So there is no clear edge as to who has the advantage going into the playoffs.
The Hawks won the first two games of the season against the Pacers, while the Pacers took the last two. In their two wins against the Pacers, the Hawks won by scores of 89-86 and 109-100.
In their two losses, the Pacers beat the Hawks 114-103 and 100-94.
So only one game out of four between these two teams has been decided by double digits.
In the two wins the Hawks got early in the season, Josh Smith was held to 11 points in the first game and was out of the second game due to a strained right hip.
Smith, the Hawks' leading scorer, is currently dealing with a knee injury that forced him to miss his team's regular season finale against the Knicks. However, he should be ready to go against the Pacers.
With the Pacers being the league's second-best defensive team, Smith will be looked upon to lead the Hawks offensively.
The matchup between Hawks center Al Horford and Pacers center Roy Hibbert will also be intriguing. Horford currently averages two more rebounds per game than Hibbert along with six more points.
However, Hibbert is fourth in the league in blocks. Horford will have to be a strong in the paint to limit Hibbert's efforts on the defensive end.
Overall, the Hawks and Pacers are two very similar teams. The Pacers only won five more games on the season than the Hawks.
If the Hawks want to win this series, they'll have to play a strong, physical brand of basketball and Smith will have to maintain his consistent scoring numbers.
(6) Golden State Warriors over (3) Denver Nuggets
6 of 8The Golden State Warriors ended the regular season on a high note with Stephen Curry setting the record for most three-pointers made in a season (272).
Now, Curry must take that sharp-shooting into the playoffs against another great offensive team in the Denver Nuggets.
While the Nuggets beat the Warriors three times out of four this season, both teams score in high volumes.
The Nuggets are the second-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 106 points per game. The Warriors are not too far off that pace. They are the seventh-highest scoring offense with 101.2 points per game.
The Warriors have three quality scoring threats in guards Curry and Klay Thompson and forward David Lee.
Curry and Thompson also set a record for most three-pointers made by any two teammates in a season with 474 between the two.
Lee is averaging a double-double on the year with 18.4 points and 11.2 rebounds per game.
Curry will be matched up with another great point guard in Ty Lawson. The two players are averaging the exact same number of assists per this season (6.9), but Curry is outscoring Lawson by over six points a game.
Both these teams shoot the lights out, with the Nuggets shooting nearly 48 percent from the field and the Warriors shooting almost 46 percent.
This series will come down to who can shoot the ball better. Curry will be the best shooter on the floor, and he could very well drive his team to the conference semifinals.
(5) Chicago Bulls over (4) Brooklyn Nets
7 of 8While the Chicago Bulls are the lower seed to the Brooklyn Nets, this series may very well be the Bulls' one to lose.
The Bulls have a 3-1 edge in the season series over the Nets and are red hot coming into the playoffs.
They ended the New York Knicks' streak of 13 straight wins on April 11. They also dethroned the Miami Heat on March 27 to end their 27-game winning streak.
While the Bulls have won three out of four against the Nets, all four games were incredibly close.
The biggest margin of victory was nine, a win by the Bulls on March 2. Every other game was decided by four points or less.
The Nets have more stars on their roster with Deron Williams and Joe Johnson. However, the Bulls have gelled well this season in Derrick Rose's absence.
Most of the success for the Bulls has come on the defensive end. While the Bulls are the second-worst scoring team in the NBA, they only give up 92.9 points per game, third-best in the league.
The Nets are also a defensive-minded team. They give up the sixth-fewest points in the league while being the 17th-ranked scoring offense.
Carlos Boozer will have to play a big role for the Bulls. He will be matched up against Reggie Evans, but he'll also have to deal with the Nets' center, Brook Lopez, in the paint.
If he can score efficiently and be a physical presence down low, that can force Williams and Johnson to score more from the outside.
The Bulls have played extremely well this year considering their best player has missed the entire season. It was in the first round last year that the Rose got injured, which caused the Bulls to exit the playoffs early.
Expect this team to come out with a headstrong attitude and a goal of advancing to the conference semifinals.
And if Derrick Rose somehow returns for the playoffs, that would be an almost unprecedented wild card for this series.
(5) Memphis Grizzlies over (4) Los Angeles Clippers
8 of 8It's already been proven that these two teams can go toe-to-toe with one another in the playoffs.
Just look at last year, when the Memphis Grizzlies and the Los Angeles Clippers went seven games in the first round.
The Clippers ended up winning Game 7. But all that means is that the Grizzlies now have a chance to exact their revenge.
These teams actually finished the regular season with the same overall record of 56-26, but the Clippers held the tie breaker to get the fourth seed and home-court advantage.
In the 2012-13 season, the Clippers won the season series against the Grizzlies 3-1 as they continued to gel as a team that is on the rise.
But every game except one was decided by 11 or fewer points.
In the Grizzlies' win over the Clippers on March 13, Marc Gasol was the top scorer for the Grizzlies with 21 points.
What makes these two teams so competitive is how evenly they match up. The Grizzlies are the league's best defensive team, as they give up fewer than 90 points a game.
The Clippers, on the other hand, score over 100 points per game and are the ninth-highest scoring offense in the league.
Chris Paul will be a huge mismatch for the Grizzlies. Paul averages nearly four more assists and two more points per game than Michael Conley, the Grizzlies point guard.
Conley will have to play tight defense on Paul to limit the superstar's play-making ability.
The biggest advantage the Grizzlies have lies in power forward Zach Randolph. He can match Blake Griffin's physicality in the post, and he out-rebounds Griffin by nearly three boards per game.
Ultimately, the Grizzlies have to play this series at their pace, and not at the Clippers' pace. If the Clippers start getting out into transition too often and get a few lob dunks, the momentum could quickly shift to the side of Los Angeles.
In the end, though, this series should be incredibly competitive. The Grizzlies can win it if they play hard, don't lose track of their man defensively and execute well out of half-court offensive sets.





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