Fantasy Focus Week Two: Timing Is Everything

With Week Two of the fantasy baseball season in the books, owners should be getting an idea of what their teams have in store for them going forward.  In my case, I've got three squads and two are looking just fine.  Luckily for me, those are the two teams I have in leagues steered by members of our Bleacher Report community.

That's fortunate because my third team is, ahem, struggling.  Badly.

And it's funny because, before the season started, this was the roster about which I was most excited.  I got boxed in with the No. 9 pick in a 12 team draft (with two utility spots), but it's a Los Angeles Dodger dominated league so I used the fervor over Bums to my advantage.

I got Mark Teixeira with my first pick, Chase Utley coming back around, Alex Rodriguez in the third round, Nick Markakis in the fourth, Jake Peavy, and Mariano Rivera.  Later in the draft, I grabbed Francisco Liriano, Joakim Soria, Chris Iannetta, Derek Lee, Melvin Mora, Ryan Theriot, and Jay Bruce.

Finally, I've grabbed some early performers/high-upside guys off the wire like Nick Swisher, Anibal Sanchez, Randy Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez, and Oliver Perez.

Considering how deep the league is—there are something like 26 roster spots with two additional Disabled List openings—this should be a rugged squad.  Especially once A-Rod gets on the diamond.

But, so far, it (the team name is MannyIsaBum) has been getting obliterated.

In my first week, every maneuver my opponent deployed worked perfectly to the tune of 17 bombs and an all-around fabulous week.  I laughed it off as a one week hiccup where the baseball gods were having a little fun at my expense.

MannyIsaBum had a damn fine week, but nothing short of an exceptional one would've kept me competitive.  That's rough, but it happens.

This week, I ran up against the guy who succeeded in drafting basically the entire Dodger organization.  He has Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, and Manny Ramirez.

And he was reaching all over the place for these guys during the draft—Manny was his first pick and Martin his second.  In other words, his team is in disarray with waiver-wire adds plugged in almost everywhere else.

I was looking forward to a good week.  Oops.

Anyone who's been following Major League Baseball knows that the Dodgers are scalding right now, winners of eight in a row.  And guess who's been driving that winning streak?

Billingsley, Kershaw, Ethier, Kemp, and Ramirez.  Martin's been struggling and Broxton has been good, but unnecessary.

My guys put up another nice week, but his Bums were going NUTS.  Ethier (8 runs, 4 HRs, 12 RBI, .391 average), Kemp (8 runs, 2 HRs, 9 RBI, 3 SBs, .391 average), and Manny (6 runs, 2 HRs, 3 RBI, .364 average) each put up two-dinger days to pace the team.

Billingsley and Kershaw both struck out double digit hitters (against my San Francisco Giants no less) and posted stellar peripherals to go along with two wins in three starts.

The rest of his team didn't do much, but they didn't need to.  I managed to take only a single category (saves), which means—of the 20 categories up for grabs over the two weeks thus far—MannyIsaBum has walked away with a grand total of four plus five ties.

And 11 losses.  Ouch.

But the season is young and my other two teams are doing just fine.

In Pete McKeown's head-to-head league, my team (TheFreak&TheKid) scored another close victory.  When the dust settled, my squad was on top 8-5 with three categories finished in a knot.

Oddly enough, my pitching has been sustaining my early success.

Despite absorbing horrendous performances by Chien-Ming Wang and Jesse Litsch, I still emerged with innings pitched, wins, saves, strikeouts, WHIP, and opponent's batting average (in a shocking turn of events, the perfect games category finished in a dead heat).

The early secret weapons have been Ricky Romero (I'll get to him at the end), A.J. Burnett, Mariano Rivera, and the fact that I have 10 pretty good (thus far) pitchers on my staff to dilute the occasional errant start.

My offense has been slow out of the gates and seems destined to fan at a prodigious rate all year, but Nick Markakis, David Wright, and Adrian Gonzalez have started to stir.  When those mashers begin to really get loose, I should be in business.

In my third and final league, another B/R special hosted by Will Howard, I'm beginning to get my rotisserie legs under me.

Again, Will's planning on making a series out of a general write up about the league and, since it's a rotisserie free-for-all, I can't write too extensively about my circumstances without walking all over that idea.  However, I can write about my coalescing approach to the new scoring system.

Since there are no head-to-head contests each week, I'm slowly realizing that a more laissez-faire approach is probably the smarter way to go.

For instance, I burned Magglio Ordonez in favor of Adam Lind, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, and Chris Davis.  In hindsight, that was probably unwise considering Mags is a pretty consistent producer and, having absorbed his slow start, I'm gonna miss the hot streak that will correct his numbers (assuming he doesn't experience a steep/sudden decline).

The larger point is, with no weekly matchups to worry about, the slow starts don't matter as much.  If it's a perennial stud (or close to that like Ordonez), it makes little sense to pull the trigger since there's a rather good probability a torrid stretch is around the bend.

And nobody is going to be hot for 162 games.

Furthermore, I kept scrambling to get the hot bat in my lineup and kept mistiming everything for no reason.  In head-to-head, wasting juicy stats on the bench can really hurt by costing you categories that week so addressing the issue may be paramount.

In rotisserie, the chips aren't counted until the very end so there's no reason to mix and match on a daily basis.  Much better to just wait for clear hot streaks to develop and then ride them rather than to try to get a guy in on his good days/out on his bad ones.

Waiver Wire

Last week I talked at length about Nick Swisher, Freddie Lewis, Dexter Fowler, and Brett Anderson as guys I liked for the long haul.  Anyone who was convinced and grabbed one of these four got some decent work (except for Fowler):

Swisher—4 runs, 2 HRs, 2 RBI, 0 SBs, .240 average

Lewis—1 run, 0 HRs, 0 RBI, 1 SB, .333 average

Fowler—0 runs, 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 1 SBs, .167 average

Anderson—7 IP, 5 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

I'm still sticking with these hombres, but Fowler's got me a little concerned—bad weeks turn into bad months quickly for rookies.

Looking to the next week, I'm switching tactics.

I used my own activities last week, but my teams are rounding into shape so that source will soon dry up.  Instead, I'm gonna be just listing four or five guys whose ownership is under 60 percent and who I think should be owned if he's available.

I figure availability in four of 10 leagues easily qualifies as waiver wire fodder and I couldn't use anything higher since Pablo Sandoval is available in 67 percent of Yahoo leagues.  If I have to tell you to go grab a guy who qualifies at catcher and should hit around .300...

The first guy on the list is Ricky Romero, who is owned in an asinine 26 percent of Yahoo leagues—an outrageous number considering he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 13 Ks against 4 walks in 21 innings.

Furthermore, the Toronto Blue Jay lefty is a former top flight draft pick from a notorious baseball school in Cal State Fullerton.

Granted, he's beaten up on two weak offenses (Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins) while taking out the Detroit Tigers in his first start of the year, arguably before they got started with the bats.  But I like lefties with a little mustard on their ball and his control (once a concern) seems to be anchored by a change in his mechanics.

He's only a rook so there will be some rough starts, but Romero's a keeper.  Even in the treacherous American League East.

Next up is Kyle Davies.

The Kansas City Royal right-hander is owned in only 31 percent of leagues and the number should be higher.  Despite getting touched up a bit by the Texas Rangers in Texas (not an easy place to pitch), the former Atlanta Braves' prospect is 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 21 Ks against 8 walks in 18-2/3 IP.

Here's another young hurler who will experience some growing pains, but this is not his first rodeo so his should be easier to stomach than a guy like Romero.  Davies has a decent fastball, controls it well, and mixes in a nice change plus a curve.

The whiffs probably won't remain as high, but I think this might be the year his pedigree materializes on the diamond.  Remember, those Braves knew pitching talent.

You might want to take this next one with a grain of rock salt because he's a favorite of mine—Jonathan Sanchez (40 percent ownership rate).

The young Giants lefty can be wild to be sure and he hasn't put those issues behind him...totally.  But I'm thoroughly convinced the addition of a changeup will prove to make Sanchez a much more reliable and dominant pitcher.

His numbers to date are not wonderful, but his last start is what's re-sold me on the kid.

Sanchez took the mound without his best stuff.  He walked four so his control wasn't great and he only fanned four so his ball wasn't electric.  And yet he pitched six and two-thirds of scoreless baseball against the Arizona Diamondbacks for the win while surrendering only two hits.

The Snakes aren't a fearsome offense at this point in the season, but Jonathan more or less dominated them by using his changeup to keep them off the rest of his B game.  In previous starts, Sanchez simply couldn't win without his A game.

Anything less got ugly quickly.

Elijah Dukes(46 percent) is another guy who must be owned in more leagues.  Although he seems a bit fragile (both physically and emotionally), the Washington Nationals' outfielder has talent for days and now has a promised spot in the big green since Lastings Milledge has been banished to the minors.

Now that Dukes has a daily chance to shine, expect more of his five-tool assistance—he hasn't started swiping bases due to a gimpy hamstring, but he's posted a .327 average with 4 runs, 2 big flies, and 7 RBI.

Like most young hitters, the crowd will enjoy some mighty breezes from Elijah, but his .395 OBP indicates a gentle and improving grasp of the strike zone.

The final guy on the list is a bit of a cheat.  Jordan Zimmerman is owned in a paltry 16 percent of Yahoo leagues.  But that's because he's making his first start of the year (weather permitting) tonight after beginning the campaign in the minors.

He's the Nats top young gun and everyone's drooling over his potential.  Grab him while you can and see if you can strike oil with this year's Tim Lincecum.

But be prepared to drop him quickly if he proves to be more Homer Bailey.

Don't say I didn't warn you...