Rich Harden: Bound for Greatness or Bust?

When we think of who will wind up being another great Cubs pitcher, the first name we usually think of—and rightfully so—is Carlos Zambrano.

The last name we think of is Rich Harden.

Granted, Harden is in his second year (a contract year) as a Cub, which starts to beg the question of whether or not he’ll be back—a question that won’t be answered until year's end.

But what if he does come back?

What if he stays for another five years?

What if Harden becomes the next great incarnate?

He is certainly well on his way.

In his six years with the Athletics, Harden posted a 36-19 record. In that time, he posted 442 H, 41 HR, and 232 BB with a 3.42 ERA. He joined Chuck Dobson and Dick Bosman as the only other Athletic pitchers in history to go undefeated in their first 12 starts with a club.

But that was just the beginning.

Upon joining the Cubs, Harden set yet a new record: He became the first pitcher since 1900 to strikeout 10 or more batters in each of his first three career starts for a team (Elias/MLB.com). Harden fanned 10 or more batters in six overall starts, five of which were with the Cubs.

In total, the kid amassed a mind blowing 181 SO in 25 combined starts ( A’s and Cubs ); something Sandy Koufax didn’t do until his sixth year as a Dodger, and Nolan Ryan didn’t do until his sixth year—his first year in an Angel’s uniform.***

So far, 2009 has been a bittersweet experience. On the one hand, critics are scoffing at his injury plagued history. Harden has been on the DL six times in five years, and three of those times were due to the ever annoying, sometimes haunting, shoulder problem.

Silencing any whispers around the cooler inevitably means getting out there and pitching well to regain some of the zest that made him the force he once was, and to ultimately accomplish a first: getting to 200 IP.

If you look at 2009 thus far, Harden’s stat line looks like the line of a coach that forgot he had a bullpen and mistakenly left his starter on the mound while he foraged for sunflower seeds:

9 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 18 SO

Both games came with a loss. Both contests had the critics unconvinced he has fully recovered, despite the 18 strikeouts. But according to Harden, all is well.

So what happens at the end of the year? Even if Harden finds a new home, one has to wonder if the shoulder can hold its own as Harden’s career moves forward. If the days of a bum shoulder are truly behind him, could we possibly be looking at the next great pitcher?

There is no question as to whether or not Harden can smoke batters. He may not yet be the next Clemens or Ryan, and for that matter, he may never achieve such a level. But if healthy days shine down on Harden, then his career is sure to flourish into something great, no doubt.

So what should we do with Harden at the end of the year? Okay, I understand it’s a bit trite to speculate, but then again, is it really? Going on his history, even with that nagging shoulder, he still wound up coming back with success.

Let’s go with it.

What are your thoughts, Cubs community? At the end of the year, one thing is unavoidable: We will have to keep him or let him go. I for one believe he’s well on his way to a solid career and worth keeping. I believe Harden will silence the critics and ultimately embrace greatness while shedding the bust speculation placed upon him.

Hopefully this prediction doesn’t become a bust!

***Nolan Ryan actually had 329 SO in 39 GS his first year as an Angel; he never topped 140 SO in his first five years as a Mets pitcher.