Spring Training Grades for Every Top New York Mets Prospect
The New York Mets’ rebuilding process is nearing its end, and many of the top prospects have gained valuable major league experience in spring training.
While the Mets currently sit at a disappointing 28th in the majors in batting average this spring, there have been plenty of positive performances. Already, a number of prospects have earned key roles for the Mets in the near future.
On the other hand, a number of prospects have also had rather disappointing springs.
Here are my grades for every top prospect for the Mets this spring, looking at pitchers followed by position players:
Zack Wheeler, SP: B+
1 of 8Zack Wheeler would have earned an easy "A" this spring, but a minor injury limited him to only one appearance.
But in that appearance, as well as numerous bullpen sessions, Wheeler quickly established that he is ready for the majors. By the end of February, teammates raved that Wheeler already looks like a No. 1 starter.
In total, Wheeler finished 2012 with a 12-8 record, 3.26 ERA and 148 strikeouts in 149 innings. Wheeler’s Triple-A numbers were almost identical to his Double-A output in his first experience at that level. In fact, opposing batters had a lower batting average in Triple-A against Wheeler, as well as more groundouts.
Wheeler made great strides last season and this spring. He has grown from a thrower into a complete pitcher.
The fact that he only needed one outing this spring to prove his worth is a testament to his ace potential.
He will bide his time in Triple-A to begin the season, but expect him to enter the majors later this season with a bang.
Jeurys Familia, RP: B-
2 of 8After giving up two walks and blowing a save in his first outing, Jeurys Familia has come back to put together a solid spring.
Familia has a 2-0 record and 2.38 ERA in 11.1 innings, as well as 11 strikeouts. If you take away the first outing, his ERA drops to 0.89.
The 23-year-old Familia was just as hyped as Matt Harvey during last year’s spring training. But while Harvey is already an ace in the Mets’ rotation, Familia lost that hype after a quiet 2012.
Familia’s biggest weakness is his lack of command. Familia has a high-90s fastball and good work ethic, but he has struggled to limit walks his entire career. Indeed, Familia has already given up seven walks this spring, as well as nine walks in his 12.1 major league innings in 2012.
For his career, Familia embarrassingly averages a walk every 2.28 innings.
But opposing batters are hitting only .238 against Familia this spring. If Familia can continue forcing outs, his high walk rate will not be as damaging. His 2.38 ERA this spring further suggests that notion.
After a successful spring training, Familia should have a significant role in the bullpen for the Mets this season.
Rafael Montero, SP: B-
3 of 8Like Wheeler, Rafael Montero only earned a "B-" due to the lack of in-game experience this spring.
In three total outings, Montero has a 2.08 ERA in 8.1 innings, with only one walk allowed. While those seem like superb numbers, Montero has also blown a save, given up 10 hits and recorded only four strikeouts.
The 2012 Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Mets, Montero already has better command than most major league pitchers. In 122 innings last year between Single-A and High-A ball, Montero recorded 110 strikeouts along with a minuscule 19 walks.
Montero also went 11-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.
Most recently, Montero was dominant against a deep Washington Nationals lineup. Montero was slated for the win but only threw 4.2 innings instead of the minimum five. Nevertheless, he let up only four hits, one walk and three strikeouts. Montero was called up from minor-league camp to start the game only because Shaun Marcum was scratched due to injury.
At only 22, Montero has a bright future ahead of him. He may have had minimal experience in his first major league camp, but Montero will get much more experience in years to come.
Jeremy Hefner, SP: B
4 of 8Jeremy Hefner has been a pleasant surprise this spring, posting a 3.10 ERA in 20.1 innings of work.
With Johan Santana to be out longer than expected, Hefner is slated to fill in the rotation spot in his absence.
Hefner should improve on his poor first major league experience last season. In 26 games and 13 starts, Hefner was 4-7 and posted a 5.09 ERA in 93.2 innings. But many of those games were spot starts on minimal rest. Hefner said he admits that he is more comfortable with the stability of going every five days.
However, Hefner only earns a ‘B’ this spring due to some command issues. While 19 strikeouts in 20.1 innings are very solid, Hefner also allowed six walks and five home runs this spring.
Nevertheless, Hefner has earned his spot in the rotation to begin 2013 with his successful spring training.
Matt Den Dekker, OF: C-
5 of 8Matt Den Dekker has incredible speed and plays great defense, but he needs to work on his offense.
In 44 at-bats, Den Dekker hit .205 with two triples and a home run. Den Dekker has serious power, but with his speed he must learn to hit like a top-of-the-lineup player. His 16 strikeouts and one walk aren't nearly going to cut it, especially with that mediocre batting average.
Last season, Den Dekker hit .340 in 58 games in Double-A, earning a call-up to Triple-A. But he hit a meager .220 in his first Triple-A exposure with almost a 30 percent strikeout rate.
Den Dekker’s bad wrist injury in yesterday’s game was the icing on the cake for a frustrating spring for the 25-year-old.
When he returns, if Den Dekker hits like he did in the beginning of 2012, he could see a call-up sometime this season. But for now, Den Dekker earned a "C-" this spring based solely on his speed and defense.
Zach Lutz, 3B: B
6 of 8Zach Lutz has put together a decent spring at the plate, and could replace star David Wright if he is unable to recover for Opening Day.
Wright’s other replacement, utility man Justin Turner, is also recovering from injury.
In 52 at-bats this spring, Lutz is hitting .308 with two doubles, a home run, nine RBI and a respectable 10/7 K/BB ratio.
Lutz has lit up the minors, too. In Triple-A last year, Lutz hit .299 in 72 games with 16 doubles, 10 home runs and 75 RBI. That equates to an impressive .496 slugging percentage and .905 OPS. His career slash line in the minors is .288/.386/.488, which are above-average numbers.
The Mets have shuffled Lutz around the field defensively as they look for places to put him in the future.
Lutz has certainly not been spectacular this spring. But if his minor-league numbers prove anything, Lutz can provide consistent offensive results.
At this point, Lutz has quietly put together a good spring and has shown he can hold his own this season in the majors.
Wilmer Flores, 2B/3B: C-
7 of 8For a player who is constantly compared to Miguel Cabrera, Wilmer Flores has not put up spring-training numbers that coincide with his promise.
Flores has arguably had a better minor-league career at his age than Cabrera. But Cabrera had a monstrous Double-A season as a 20-year-old to catapult him into the majors.
Flores should begin 2013 with his first season in Double-A. But this spring, Flores has not produced at all. He has three hits and one RBI in 21 at-bats this spring.
There are only a few reasons that Flores’ grade is as high as it is.
First, he still hits the ball incredibly hard, and despite the poor stats he has plenty of promise. Second, Flores only recorded two strikeouts. Power hitters tend to strike out just as often as they get hits, but Flores has shown a natural ability to put the ball in play. Lastly, Flores has played fairly good defense alternating between second and third base.
With Wright hogging third base for the next decade, Flores moved to second base last season and this spring. This move makes a lot of sense if he wants consistent playing time on the Mets.
At only 21, Flores has a lot of time to hone his game for the majors. A player who was once a 16-year-old raw prospect is slowly becoming the complete package the Mets envisioned.
Flores has played in spring training for five straight years and has a career .174 average. Last season, Flores hit a combined .300 with 30 doubles, 18 home runs, 75 RBI and only 60 strikeouts in 138 games.
Therefore, Flores’ poor spring training grade this year does not mean anything.
While the comparisons to Cabrera are optimistic at best, Flores should continue to dominate the minor leagues until his long-awaited call-up.
Travis d'Arnaud, C: A-
8 of 8Travis d’Arnaud was the much-hyped centerpiece of the trade of Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey this offseason. By all accounts, d’Arnaud has done everything to live up to the hype.
After getting four total hits in his previous two springs, d’Arnaud is hitting .343 this spring with 12 hits, four doubles and a .415 on-base percentage.
The 24-year-old has steadily risen through the minors. More impressively, his offensive numbers have gotten better as he gets to higher and tougher levels. Last season, d’Arnaud only played in 67 Triple-A games due to a season-ending knee injury. But he still managed to hit .333 with 21 doubles, 16 home runs and 52 RBI.
D’Arnaud proved this spring that he is healthy and ready to contribute to the Mets as soon as they need him.
Like Wheeler, though, d’Arnaud will begin the season in Triple-A despite the impressive spring. But expect him to make his long-awaited major league debut sometime this season.
When he joins the Mets, d’Arnaud has the confidence and talent to quickly earn the starting catcher spot for many years.
Stats via mlb.com and milb.com

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