Odds for All 30 MLB Teams' Dark Horses Cracking the Opening Day Roster

Dark horses have caused headaches for MLB teams this spring training by contending for 2013 Opening Day roster spots that they weren't supposed to. The odds of these 30 players being active come April 1 understandably vary.

Let's first define "dark horses" as those who reported to Arizona or Florida without much hope of securing jobs on active rosters. Generally, these are high-ceiling prospects, experienced non-roster invitees and former starters rehabbing from significant injuries.

Most of them should not give up hope just yet.

*All stats current entering March 19.

SS Didi Gregorius (Arizona Diamondbacks): 0 Percent

The Arizona Diamondbacks sacrificed the talented Trevor Bauer in a three-team trade to get their paws on Didi Gregorius.

But he is the shortstop of the future, so they aren't rushing him back from an offseason UCL strain.

A .474/.476/.789 batting line is obviously encouraging, as are his two home runs in 10 games.

Gregorius hasn't played the field, however, and remains about a week away from doing so, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. Manager Kirk Gibson just wants the 23-year-old ready for the start of the minor league season.

SS Tyler Pastornicky (Atlanta Braves): 45 Percent

Tyler Pastornicky didn't take advantage of his opportunity as the Atlanta Braves' starting shortstop in 2012. He was demoted to Triple-A in late May with a .248/.281/.324 batting line and used sparingly from then on.

To debunk his reputation as a defensive liability, the Florida native spent the winter preparing to play different positions (via Joey Nowak, MLB.com). Aside from shortstop, he has been used at second base and center field this spring.

He's in direct competition with Ramiro Pena for a bench job and is producing more with the bat than Pena ever could.

It's clear, though, that the Braves prefer versatility and athleticism over power. The two men seem to be neck and neck, but the veteran currently holds a slight edge.

IF/OF Ryan Flaherty (Baltimore Orioles): 65 Percent

There isn't a starting job available for Ryan Flaherty, but he continues to bolster his case for a spot on the Baltimore Orioles' Opening Day roster.

The 26-year-old has launched three home runs in the past couple weeks to elevate his preseason OPS above 1.000. From his rookie campaign, management already knows he can be used at numerous spots around the diamond.

It ought to be a tight squeeze with Alexi Casilla, Nolan Reimold and Danny Valencia contending for bench roles. The latter is most vulnerable.

OF Jackie Bradley (Boston Red Sox): 80 Percent

The Boston Red Sox seldom promote prospects to the majors before exposing them to Triple-A.

At the rate Jackie Bradley is going, they'll need to make an exception.

The club's top developing position player flaunts a .436/.551/.564 batting line in his first full spring training. Every time the Red Sox give him at least three plate appearances, he reaches base.

Stephen Drew (concussion) and David Ortiz (heel) aren't optimistic about breaking camp with the major league team. That means Boston could use someone who swings from the left side.

OF Brett Jackson (Chicago Cubs): 3 Percent

MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reports that Brett Jackson will be out of action through the weekend with shoulder inflammation. The setback all but eliminates any chance he had of earning a place on the 25-man roster.

There was always a belief that the strike-prone outfielder would start in the minors and continue tweaking his swing. At least he made things interesting with two stolen bases and three extra-base hits before learning of his injury.

After several March 18 roster moves, Brian Bogusevic is close to solidifying his spot behind Alfonso Soriano, David DeJesus, Nate Schierholtz and Scott Hairston.

3B Josh Bell (Chicago White Sox): 25 Percent

Josh Bell crushed a monster home run at Chase Field last May, but otherwise hasn't accomplished much at the major league level.

The Chicago White Sox are the fourth franchise to take a look at him.

Coming off a nightmarish season, Brent Morel doesn't have comparable stats (.216/.256/.378) against Bell's .389/.450/.944. 

Alas, neither man will crack the Opening Day crew if the White Sox go with five outfielders. On the strength of four consecutive multi-hit contests, Jordan Danks is making that a serious possibility.

LHP Manny Parra (Cincinnati Reds): 30 Percent

Cincinnati Reds general manager Walt Jocketty tells Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that Aroldis Chapman's role will be defined later this week.

It's common knowledge that the Cuban Missile and skipper Dusty Baker want him closing. Chapman excelled in the ninth inning in 2012 and even received recognition in NL Cy Young Award voting.

If they get their way, fellow southpaw Manny Parra could immediately become a trade candidate.

The 30-year-old is not all that valuable to the Reds considering their terrific bullpen depth. His 1.03 WHIP this spring doesn't stick out when teammates like Jonathan Broxton and Jose Arredondo have matched it during previous regular seasons.

LHP Scott Kazmir (Cleveland Indians): 70 Percent

It has been nearly two years since Scott Kazmir last pitched in the majors—and even longer since he survived a full summer in the starting rotation.

But the two-time American League All-Star controls his own destiny at this point.

He has performed brilliantly in spring training (no runs allowed). The velocity and command from his Tampa Bay Rays days are coming back.

News of Daisuke Matsuzaka's minor league assignment (via MLB.com's Jordan Bastian) implies that Kazmir is going to make the Opening Day roster.

3B Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies): 35 Percent

Nolan Arenado is determined to debut with the Colorado Rockies prior to his 22nd birthday (April 16).

Through seven spring contests, his slugging percentage peaked at 1.235. Despite some regression to the norm, he still enters March 19 with an impressive .276/.276/.793 batting line.

The highly-regarded prospect will eventually play third base regularly. The club is reluctant to rush his development considering that 27-year-old Chris Nelson, who has nearly 200 games of major league experience, is also inexpensive.

Most likely, Arenado's debut will come around midseason.

LF Nick Castellanos (Detroit Tigers): 25 Percent

Last month, our own Mike Rosenbaum ranked Nick Castellanos as baseball's 19th-best prospect and projected him to begin 2013 at Double-A.

Recent activity from the Detroit Tigers has made an April promotion to the big leagues slightly more plausible. Brennan Boesch was released and Avisail Garcia was sidelined with a heel injury.

Even so, Castellanos' lack of professional experience in the outfield works against him.

OF Rick Ankiel (Houston Astros): 85 Percent

The Houston Astros, devoid of veteran talent, reached out to Rick Ankiel despite his relatively negligible production since leaving the St. Louis Cardinals (20 home runs since 2010).

At 33, the former pitcher is easily the oldest one competing for their corner outfield jobs.

His elite throwing arm and hot offensive start haven't locked him into the starting lineup, but there definitely will be a role available.

RHP Dan Wheeler (Kansas City Royals): 70 Percent

The Kansas City Royals bullpen should be terrific, even without household names. Tim Collins, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland can preserve late-inning leads.

Of course, a little depth never hurts, especially when it's in the form of non-roster invitees.

Dan Wheeler settled for a minor league deal coming off a forgettable stint with the Cleveland Indians. The right-hander who was pitching meaningful postseason innings as recently as 2010 looks sharp once again. He boasts a spotless earned run average and a 12.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The odds of Wheeler breaking camp with the Royals will continue improving if the team moves Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar, thus clearing a roster spot.

C Chris Snyder (Los Angeles Angels): 40 Percent

Nobody could have foreseen the Los Angeles Angels stalling Hank Conger's career in favor of journeyman Chris Snyder.

The 32-year-old was deemed extraneous by the Washington Nationals and released Monday. The team had more catching depth than most, so it's hardly surprising to see him receive another opportunity.

But with L.A.?

Unfortunately for Conger, his consistently productive bat is offset by inaccurate throws. The former first-round draft pick has already been charged with four errors this spring and appeared helpless against six base-stealing attempts.

It's impossible for him to continue being so inept, right?

Of Yasiel Puig (Los Angeles Dodgers): 1 Percent

It's clear at this point that the Los Angeles Dodgers underestimated Yasiel Puig by starting him at rookie ball in 2012. In reality, he is an advanced power hitter whose name should be discussed come September when active rosters expand.

Still, small samples can be misleading. A .452/.442/.667 spring batting line does not merit a major league opportunity on its own.

Manager Don Mattingly raves about the Cuban's skill set, but admitted to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that he is too raw.

CF Christian Yelich (Miami Marlins): 3 Percent

Christian Yelich is in a tough position, with no experience above High-A yet very positive results against major league pitching this preseason.

Chris Coghlan, Gorkys Hernandez and Justin Ruggiano all seek playing time in center field, too. They will get priority. 

Miami Marlins manager Mike Redmond praises Yelich's performance, but tells MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo that "we want to make sure we're doing the right thing for him and the organization."

Of Khris Davis (Milwaukee Brewers): 70 Percent

Khris Davis is mashing baseballs just like he did throughout the 2012 minor league season.

With the Milwaukee Brewers starting outfield predetermined, the 25-year-old eyes a reserve opportunity. Logan Schafer, who has been effective in brief stints over the past two years, wasn't expecting much of a challenge.

At least on Opening Day, the Brew Crew can afford to carry both. One of them will return to Triple-A when Corey Hart gets back to full strength.

RHP Mike Pelfrey (Minnesota Twins): 95 Percent

There has been nothing remarkable about Mike Pelfrey's spring training results (1.97 WHIP).

However, less than 11 months removed from Tommy John surgery, he is facing major league opposition and taking regular turns in the starting rotation. That's pretty special.

The Minnesota Twins won't be cautious with him, especially now that Scott Diamond has landed on the disabled list, tweets Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. 

RHP Jeremy Hefner (New York Mets): 75 Pecent

This was supposed to be the year that Johan Santana would last the entire season.

Instead, he's likely to miss the beginning.

The southpaw fell behind in conditioning and has not pitched in the Grapefruit League. It might be several more weeks until his arm is sufficiently stretched out.

Jeremy Hefner lacks the overpowering repertoire of the other young rotation candidates. Still, his 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP have not gone unnoticed. He lasted five innings in his most recent appearance for the New York Mets.

RHP David Phelps (New York Yankees): 75 Percent

The question was never whether David Phelps ranked among the 12 best New York Yankees pitchers.

He undoubtedly does.

But the team wants him to be a starter, which means he'll be at Triple-A if the major league rotation is full.

At least through the first week of April, Phil Hughes' spot could be vacant. The oft-injured right-hander who is recovering from a bulging disc probably won't be fully stretched out by Opening Day.

LF Shane Peterson (Oakland Athletics): 15 Percent

The Oakland Athletics reported to Phoenix with a surplus of outfielders, and that was without giving any thought to their prospects.

Barring a sudden trade of Coco Crisp or Chris Young, Shane Peterson is going to be denied an Opening Day opportunity. He torched Triple-A with a .389/.484/.618 batting line in 2012 and the A's are eager to see if he can replicate those results.

SS Yuniesky Betancourt (Philadelphia Phillies): 30 Percent

Advanced statistics rarely influence decisions in the Philadelphia Phillies front office. Otherwise, the club would never have extended a spring training invitation to Yuniesky Betancourt.

Right now he's been doing all the usual things: Hacking at every pitch and frequently getting singles, while hindering his teammates as an infielder.

Betancourt, Kevin Frandsen and Freddy Galvis are fighting for two Opening Day spots. Despite a bloated batting average, count on Betancourt to start packing his belongings this weekend.

LHP Jeff Locke (Pittsburgh Pirates): 60 Percent

When Francisco Liriano fractured his non-throwing arm in December, we didn't imagine him missing a significant chunk of the regular season.

But that's the reality that the Pittsburgh Pirates must deal with.

Right-hander Kyle McPherson was deemed the front-runner to fill in. He got a taste of the majors in 2012 and tossed six scoreless innings in his final start. Meanwhile, Jeff Locke's overall earned run average was twice as high.

The opposite is true this spring, so Locke currently holds a slight advantage.

RHP Andrew Cashner (San Diego Padres): 70 Percent

Around the same time as Francisco Liriano, Andrew Cashner suffered a notable injury. A hunting accident lacerated a tendon in his right thumb and it was presumed that he wouldn't be ready for Opening Day.

Now, there's some optimism.

He threw 35 pitches in a spring outing March 19. One fastball clocked in at 97 mph.

The San Diego Padres will lean heavily on their pitching staff early in the regular season considering that Chase Headley (fractured thumb) is going to be sidelined initially. Cashner tells Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune that he could beat the original timetable.

RHP Boof Bonser (San Francisco Giants): 15 Percent

Boof Bonser has returned to the San Francisco Giants, who famously overvalued him in the 2000 amateur draft.

This time, however, the right-hander isn't "the future of the franchise."

The 31-year-old aims to break camp with a long relief job, though Chad Gaudin looks like the stronger candidate. Bonser's spotless earned run average isn't necessarily better than Gaudin's 2.19 mark when you look at their innings totals (2.0 vs. 12.1).

Don't hold your breath expecting this cute comeback story to end well.

RHP Jeremy Bonderman (Seattle Mariners): 30 Percent

What do Jeremy Bonderman and the aforementioned Boof Bonser have in common?

Both were in miserable form during the 2010 season and haven't gotten back to the majors since.

Thanks to significant weight loss and elbow reconstruction, Bonderman drew interest from several clubs, eventually accepting an invitation from the Seattle Mariners. His velocity was impressive from the onset of spring training.

The 30-year-old has steadily improved each time on the mound, but failed to match results with Seattle's other rotation options.

SS Pete Kozma (St. Louis Cardinals): 98 Percent

Pete Kozma, a shortstop prospect solely praised for his glovework, shocked the baseball world late in 2012. He contributed 10 extra-base hits in 26 games as Rafael Furcal's replacement.

The starting job is his once again now that the Dominican veteran has been ruled out for the season.

With a .341/.386/.561 batting line for the St. Louis Cardinals this spring, Kozma has done all he can to prove that his initial success wasn't fluky. 

OF Jason Bourgeois (Tampa Bay Rays): 20 Percent

Jason Bourgeois is still far down on the outfield depth chart. Even with Wil Myers in Triple-A and B.J. Upton gone, this speedster doesn't have strong odds of breaking camp with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Powerful Shelley Duncan more appropriately complements the light-hitting lineup.

It's worth noting, however, that among those at Bourgeois' position, only Desmond Jennings has a higher batting average and stolen-base total.

CF Julio Borbon (Texas Rangers): 10 Percent

Rather than making a hefty financial commitment to an established center fielder, the Texas Rangers will fill the void internally.

Statistically, Julio Borbon compares favorably to competitors Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin. He leads the group with nine runs batted in while hitting .341/.404/.488.

It probably won't matter. Management prefers the skill sets that the others offer.

Regardless, kudos to Borbon on his best spring training to date.

3B Mark DeRosa (Toronto Blue Jays): 98 Percent

The Toronto Blue Jays signed Mark DeRosa specifically to serve as their 25th man, according to Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com.

They liked his versatility and intangibles. His only duties this spring were to stay healthy and show some semblance of offensive aptitude.

Batting .458/.500/.750 (24 plate appearances) has justified his belonging on the Opening Day roster. DeRosa is even being thought of as a potential starter at third base should Brett Lawrie not heal from a strained rib cage muscle by April 1.

OF/1B Micah Owings (Washington Nationals): 0 Percent

Micah Owings has finally come to terms with the fact that he won't last as a major league pitcher.

The conversion to an outfielder/first baseman is going marvelously. His stats practically match Bryce Harper's.

Though the Washington Nationals don't have room to carry him into the regular season, they think enough of Owings to keep getting him at-bats in the Grapefruit League.

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