SPL Title Race Balanced on a Knife-Edge

Well, the SPL split is almost upon us, and I feel it is time to revisit my last article on this site: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/113245-the-spl-is-too-close-to-call/show_full

With the final round of fixtures approaching, I wrote then that there was unlikely to be much between Celtic and Rangers. Although some of my predictions were out, my main point was correct, with just one point between the teams before the final pre-split match.

I picked out Motherwell, Dundee Utd, and Hearts away as potential banana skins for Celtic and they dropped two points in each of those matches.

I was wrong though in predicting that Rangers would not drop any points after playing Celtic and before playing Hibernian, their opponents on Sunday.

Surprisingly to me at least, Rangers not only dropped points, they actually managed to lose in that time as well. Walter Smith's men lost to Inverness CT and drew with Hearts, although they have managed to close the gap on draw specialists Celtic.

The championship is now poised on a knife-edge, with Celtic and Rangers each having three home and three away matches remaining, all against top six opposition. A slight advantage for Rangers is that they will have home advantage in the next derby match with Celtic.

Rangers' match against Hibernian could be the defining moment of the campaign. If Hibernian make the top six, Celtic's remaining fixtures (though not the order) are clear—home matches against Hearts and Dundee Utd, and away matches against Rangers, Aberdeen, and Hibernian.

Celtic fans would be relatively pleased with that, Tannadice and Tynecastle being particularly difficult places to take three points from. Should Hibernian make the top six, those will be Rangers' two away matches.

Things get complicated though if Motherwell pip Hibernian for sixth place this weekend.

Having already played twice at Tannadice, Tynecastle, and Fir Park respectively, Celtic would then have to play at one of those venues for a third time, while Rangers would avoid a trip to either Tannadice or Tynecastle.

Reports this morning suggest Motherwell finishing in the top six would mean Celtic facing a third trip to Tynecastle, while Hearts would make a third trip of the season to Ibrox.

Extra incentive then for Rangers to beat Hibernian on Sunday, should Motherwell beat St Mirren on Saturday.

Things will be clearer after the weekend, but regardless of the fixtures post-split, Celtic know five wins would hand them their fourth title in a row.

Therein lies the problem—Celtic have a terrible recent record against the teams in the top half of the table.

Since beating Hearts 2-0 at Tynecastle on November 2, Celtic have recorded just one league win against a team in the top five, home or away.

This is no blip. It is a medium-term trend at best, and unless there is a dramatic improvement in the next six weeks, Celtic will be counting on Rangers dropping just as many points as they do in the run-in.

My feeling is that Celtic will win the derby match whenever it is played—they have the beating of Rangers. It is the matches against the rest which will decide Celtic's fate and under Gordon Strachan, they have a record of delivering when the chips are down.

My optimistic prediction from my previous article remains—Celtic to edge it.

Just.