Fantasy Baseball Tonight: Apr. 12

I wanted to start tonight with a guy that I am really buying in on, and that is Marlins’ starter Josh Johnson.  He threw a complete game this afternoon against a fairly solid offensive team in the New York Mets. This was the second straight sparkling start for Johnson, who threw 6.2 shutout innings against the Nationals.

He now has 14 strikeouts in those two starts, and has a 0.57 ERA to begin the year. After finishing the 2008 year with a 7-1 record and now this start, he looks like he could be a fantasy ace in the future.

Travis Hafner has come back from the dead to have an incredible start to the season.  He now has homered in three straight games, has six RBI on the season, and is batting .300. It has been a few years since his last 40 homer season, but Hafner is still only 31 years old, so there’s no reason to bury him quite yet.

I’m not saying that he will connect 40 times again, but it seems that he could land anywhere between 25-35 homers in 2009.

Aaron Harang had a pretty good first start to the season, but fantasy owners were still skeptical. My guess is after Sunday’s start that he will be picked up in most leagues where he was still available. 

Harang threw a complete game shutout, allowed just three hits, struck out nine, and didn’t walk a batter. If this is a sign that he is going back to the form he showed in 2006 and 2007, Harang could be a big fantasy contributor this year.

Kevin Millwood has only given up one run in his first two starts, but I’m not buying in just yet. After allowing just one run in seven innings on Opening Day, Millwood threw seven scoreless innings on Sunday. He also has 11 strikeouts in his 14 innings of work. 

However, there are three things about his recent past that has me passing on Millwood. 

In the past two seasons, Millwood has had a below .500 record, has had an ERA over 5.00, and his strikeout numbers were not at the pace he is at right now.  He is 34 years old, and I think he is on the downside of his career.

Holy crap, Evan Longoria is great!  He had three more hits again today, hit his fifth home run, drove in his tenth run, and even stole his first base. He is looking like he will be a top 10 player as soon as NOW!

Chase Utley had two hits for the FIFTH straight day, and also hit his first home run of the season.  Utley is hitting .476 on the young season, and stole his second base. For those of you who were worried about Utley returning ok from offseason hip surgery, I think you have your answer. 

Ian Kinsler has improved, but Chase Utley is still the class of the position.

After lasting just three innings in his first start, Tim Lincecum wasn’t much better the second time around.  Lincecum only pitched 5.1 innings on Sunday, allowing four runs, walking three, and whiffing five.

It is a tad concerning that he struggled against the lowly Padres, but believe me he will be fine.

In fact, I would put a trade out to the Lincecum owner in your league to see if perhaps they are freaking out and perhaps you can get him a bit on the cheap. He likely won’t match last year’s amazing season, but Tiny Tim should be a top five starter.

After five straight games with multiple hits, Emilio Bonifacio finally took the collar on Sunday, going 0-for-4 with a strikeout. I think that he will be a solid fantasy contributor in the stolen base category (40+), but I think his batting average can’t stay anywhere near this level.

Ian Snell had a great outing by his standards, but that being said, PLEASE stay away from him.  Snell allowed only two runs over six innings and struck out seven, but given the numbers he has put up, this is just one good game and is the exception, not the rule. 

In 31 starts last year, Snell’s ERA was nearly 5.50, and I don’t see any reason while he will be fantasy relevant in 2009.

Another pitcher I’m not buying in on is San Diego’s Chris Young. Sure he is 2-0 and has only allowed two earned runs in his first two starts, but Young has had a rough last few years. He does keep his ERA under 4.00, and he strikes out a respectable number of guys, but being on the Padres limits his win potential.

Look for Young to win no more than 12 games, with an ERA around 3.75.

Kyle Lohse continued his resurgence since joining the Cardinals, as he threw a complete game shutout, allowing just three hits, giving up no walks, and striking out four. 

After being barely relevant before coming to St. Louis, Lohse won 15 games last year, and now has had two great starts in 2009. Lohse has a chance to win 15 games again, have an ERA around 3.50, and strike out 130-140.

After starting the season 3-for-20, Chase Headley has turned it around and has homered for the second consecutive day. Headley is a fairly highly ranked prospect for the Padres, and will be their starting left fielder this season. He will most likely top out at 20-25 homers, but he has two factors working against him. 

His home ballpark is perhaps the worst one for hitting home runs, and he has so little talent in the batting order around him, if Headley starts to break out he will start to see fewer good pitches to hit.

Erik Bedard  almost went the distance on Sunday. The often injured fantasy ace, threw 8.1 shutout innings and struck out seven while walking only one.  If Bedard can stay healthy, he could easily strike out 200 batters.

Being on the Mariners will limit the number of wins he could possibly get, but he could help you in a number of other categories.

Trevor Cahill had a much better second outing than his first. Although he only allowed two earned runs against the Angels, Cahill did walk five guys the first time he was on the bump. 

This time, Cahill allowed only one run over seven innings, struck out three, and this time only walked three. His next start will be against the Blue Jays, which is a good opponent for a young pitcher. It is still undecided on how good Cahill will be, but he is among the best pitching prospects in baseball.

Injury News

Geovany Soto looks like he will be returning to the lineup by Wednesday at the latest.  Manager Lou Piniella stated that he was basically ready to go.  It is very unlikely that he will play on Monday, but if they need a pinch hitter, he could possibly enter the game.

It seems a good bet that he will play on Tuesday, but I would say if you play daily transactions, that I would wait until you see him play a full game before I put him in your lineup.

After reporting yesterday that Brandon Webb should make his next start, he was placed on the Disabled List on Sunday. The move was retroactive to Apr. 7, so he is eligible to return to action on Apr. 22.

It is likely that he will be able to return on that day, as the reports out there are the Diamondbacks are just trying to be cautious, and they think by the time he is eligible to return the issue will be completely resolved.

Stash him away for another 10 days, but I don’t think that this is a long term problem.  

Milton Bradley left Sunday’s game with what is being described as a strained groin.  If it were many other players, I wouldn’t even be reporting on this, but given Bradley’s series of injuries over the year, it is significant any time that Bradley leaves the game. 

I wouldn’t expect him to play on Monday, and would watch the web to see if he will play on Tuesday.

Tom Glavine was supposed to start the season on the Disabled List until the Braves were in need of a fifth starter. However, Glavine had a setback in his minor league start tonight, and his return has started to come into question.

He felt some discomfort in his shoulder during the game, and threw about 20 pitches left than he had planned.   Glavine was supposed to make his first start on Apr. 18, and now that has come into question. 

The big question is, would the Braves turn to Jo Jo Reyes, or will they call on top prospect Tommy Hanson?  If I had to guess, it would be that if they thought Glavine would miss a huge chunk of time they would bring up Hanson, but if he is only going to miss one start, expect Reyes to come up.

Mark Teixeira was held out of back to back games due to tendinitis in his wrist.  It seems as if they Yankees are being overly cautious, and there isn’t any reason to believe that this will be a long term problem. Even if you have weekly lineups, I would still play Tex in Week Two.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don’t miss “The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show” every Wednesday night at 10pm EST on Blog Talk Radio. The show is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com.  To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. 

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