Fantasy Baseball: Thursday News and Notes

On the night that Francisco Rodriguez recorded his second save in as many nights, Brian Fuentes blew a chance for the Angels. In Houston, there was plenty of power on display, but it was all in a loss. Arizona got its first taste of some bad news. The Braves wasted a solid outing because their relievers couldn't find the plate with a map. 

Seemingly every city is giving us early questions.  

All this and we haven't even reached the first weekend of the season—just life for the average fantasy baseball owner.  

One piece that continues to strike me is how wins revolve as much around luck as anything else. Gavin Floyd pitched a tremendous game last night, yet doesn't win. Nick Adenhart was solid, and deserved one himself. The same is true of Javier Vazquez. 

As can be the case, though, once the starter leaves the game everything is out of their control. Think about this as you start looking for pitching; wins just don't always tell the tale. 

Let's get to today's notes.

• We'll start with the bad news. The bad news is that Brandon Webb is reportedly going to miss his start on Saturday due to tightness in his shoulder. The Arizona Republic reported yesterday that Webb is going to be sidelined and Yusmeiro Petit will take his spot against the Dodgers. The team doesn't feel there's a lot to be concerned with at this point, but want to play it safe in April. Webb reported no issues after playing catch yesterday.
• The good news is that Ichiro has been cleared to play for Seattle following bouts with a bleeding ulcer and lightheadedness, according to ESPN sources. He's not eligible to come off the DL until the 15th of the month, but he should be good to go at that point. It will cause a fair amount of shuffling around of the lineup, but you can trust he'll be in it.
• So, do pitcher's hitting stats count? If you own Yovani Gallardo, you certainly want them to. Not only did Gallardo go seven solid innings in recording his first win in over a year and a half, he hit a three-run home run off Randy Johnson to ice the victory. Gallardo looked good, and I don't see any concerns over velocity or durability at this point.
• Scott Kazmir was dealing last night. He has the best ERA at Fenway Park amongst all active pitchers (even if recent failures happened in 2008), and showed it last night. Kazmir was efficient, and that's been his biggest issue. While he struggled in the first two innings, he settled down and had his slider working very well against the Red Sox lineup. Good signs for owners.
• Freddy Sanchez has opened the first three games of the season going 8-for-14, including four hits last night against the Cardinals. I'm an advocate of riding streaks, and there's nothing wrong with grabbing a guy only 67 percent owned in ESPN leagues to enjoy for another week or so until he cools down. Remember, middle infield is very thin, production there is a bonus.
• Ted Lilly continued his dominance of the Astros, but it wasn't exactly pretty. Yes, he recorded the win. Lilly gave up five runs in five innings and was the victim of the longball multiple times. Not pretty, and it's basically the opposite of the good outings we saw wasted by Adenhart and Floyd.
• Had a question asked on statistics in head-to-head leagues. I feel, as you get later in a week, if you're out of the running in a category (and you have no yearly limits), then you maximize your chances. Example, if you have no shot at average, put all the kids in the pool to maximize other offensive categories.
• Grant Balfour got the save for the Rays last night. Not Troy Percival. Not Dan Wheeler. Grant Balfour. That, my friends, is a team where four pitchers could have seven or more saves. It's not much, but it certainly is worth monitoring if you're in a position to reach for saves.
• I'll jump on the bandwagon. Brandon Inge hit his third home run of the season last night. Inge has eligibility at multiple positions, and is swinging a hot bat right now. He may hurt your average down the line, but not in short bursts. That's what we have right now.
• Nelson Cruz, a popular "sleeper," hit two home runs and stole a base last night for the Rangers. Cruz is already widely owned, but it's nice to see him get off to this type of start. If he's available in your league, double-digit home runs and steals to go with a .265 average or so gets the job done.
• Yesterday Stats: Wins—Volstad, Adenhart, Blanton, Davis; Losses—Litsch, Duke, Wellemeyer (Season: 9-5)

Notes for Thursday

• If you ever had any inclination to EVER start Jarrod Washburn, this is the game. The Twins have hit just .228 against Washburn. While he did lose his only start against them last season, he struck out six and got into trouble mainly through walks. His ERA was over a run better on the road in 2008. I'm not saying to start him, but if you already own him, this is where to put him out there...in AL-only leagues.
• The Royals regulars, minus Alex Gordon, actually hit John Danks very well. In three starts last season, the Royals nearly eclipsed the .300 mark against the White Sox starter, and Danks posted only a 4.32 ERA against them. The two rough outings both came at U.S. Cellular Field. Keep Mark Teahan, David DeJesus, and Jose Guillen active today. You'll get some benefit.
• For all of Bronson Arroyo's struggles, he has managed good numbers against the Mets. Arroyo has held the team to a .225 average against him. The regular with the best average is Jose Reyes, who checks in at .263. David Wright, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran all have problems putting the ball in play against the Reds starter. On top of that, he did post a 3.97 ERA at home last season, and has always seemed to have luck there.
• Jered Weaver gave up just three runs in 13 innings of work last season against Oakland, and has a 2.56 ERA against them since 2006. Weaver doesn't have many wins to show for it against the A's, but his stats show strong performances. His success at home makes this a good play. Keep Mark Ellis down if you can, as he hits just .167, but he's the only A's starter with a track record against Weaver.
• With Manny Parra on the mound, I'm starting most of my Giants. Parra did improve his strikeouts and walks in the second half of the year, but his numbers on the road don't give credence to a start. He did post two wins against the Giants last season, I'm just not sold on the overall matchup and the second half numbers from last season (ERA, WHIP) scare me off.
• Matt Cain isn't going to wow you, but he does bring consistency to the table. Better, he pitches well against the Brewers. Keep Mike Cameron out of your lineups, as he's just 2-for-23 with nine strikeouts against Cain in his career.
• I was on the Matt Garza bandwagon last season, but only when the game was played in a dome. Garza really struggled on the road, posting a 4.53 ERA that was two runs worse than his home ERA, and hasn't enjoyed his time at Fenway Park. I'm keeping him down for this matchup.
• Akinori Iwamura enjoys facing fellow countryman Daisuke Matsuzaka. Iwamura checks in at .375 in 24 at-bats in the States against the Boston starter tonight. Matsuzaka struggles with command, and the Rays have been patient with him in the past. They recorded 11 walks in 15 innings against him last season. Despite a .228 average, they were always on base.
• I know Glen Perkins looks like a start at home, and I said as much as a shot yesterday, but he's a lefty that can't get lefties out. On top of that, batters hit .301 against him last season and he had a 4.41 ERA. Perkins got nearly 6.5 runs of support per start. Without that, he wouldn't have sniffed 12 wins. Not a spot start I want to take on today.
• Spot Starts: Arroyo and Weaver (still 20 percent available) are the only reaches I'd look at today.
• Keep on the Bench: No major concerns from guys that would normally be in lineups.

Notes for Friday

• The Angels have decent numbers against Tim Wakefield. Keep the knuckleballer reserved, but make sure you start Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Vlad Guerrero. They rake against Wake (like my rhymes?).
• Cole Hamels will get the ball against the Rockies. Tough one to call. I'm tempted to sit Hamels on the road coming off of an elbow problem. I tend to do that with any pitcher after an injury. He didn't have much velocity (85-87 vs. low 90's normally) in his exhibition start, simply because of lack of innings. Something to consider here.
• Your Royals regulars enjoy swinging the bat against Andy Pettite. In three starts against the Royals last season, Pettite had a WHIP of nearly 1.50, and an ERA over 6.50 in 20 innings. For whatever reason, he seems to struggle with the Royals.
• Jeremy Hermida likely makes a good play on Friday against John Maine. Hermida is 5-for-11 in his career against the Mets starter, and has the best numbers of any Florida starter. Keep him in the lineup if you need a couple hits. Otherwise, Maine pitches well against the Marlins and makes a decent start.
• While Looper had some success overall against the Cubs, it was mainly because of his strand rate of runners. The Cubs still hit nearly .300 against him last season in four starts, and all regulars outside of Soriano are well north of .275. Get your Cubs going, and don't reach for Looper in this one.
• Baltimore just toasted Andy Sonnanstine last season. Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, and even Greg Zaun have enjoyed their time against the Rays pitcher. Sonnanstine was consistent, but his road ERA was still 4.35.
• Manny Ramirez owns Jon Garland to the tune of .520/3/10 in 25 at-bats. Orlando Hudson and Casey Blake are also likely in line for good days against Garland.
• Spot Starts: Armando Galarraga (still 33 percent available), James McDonald (I'd take you over Jon Garland), and John Maine.