NBA Trade Deadline: Putting Percentages on Potential Moves

Each February brings extravagantly exaggerated trade possibilities to the table with little to no credence as to their plausibility or potential of coming to fruition.

This season is no different, as speculation has begun to swirl, rumoring Josh Smith to the Spurs, Brandon Jennings to the Mavericks and Kevin Garnett to the Clippers.

According to sources, Smith, Jennings and Garnett have each been discussed in various trades, but the chance they're actually moved is debatable at best. 

This article tries to decipher the blockbusters from the bologna, placing percentages on the likelihood of each major trade rumor.

Josh Smith to the San Antonio Spurs: 10% Chance

While this trade rumor has been discussed ad nauseam since Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports reported the Spurs were interested in Josh Smith, it's intriguing nevertheless.

Spears conjures a valid notion, pointing to the fact that Atlanta Hawks' General Manager Danny Ferry has a past with the Spurs both as a player and in the front office.

That may not mean much in terms of making or breaking this deal, but his conservative history as a GM and Vice President of Basketball Operations lends that he's not afraid to move a high-priced asset.

Does Joe Johnson ring a bell?

Pro Basketball Talk argues that the Spurs don't have much to offer for Smith's services, but if you recall, Ferry traded Johnson for chips, and not the good kind.  

This could be especially telling considering Johnson was locked into a long-term contract while Smith is likely to enter free agency this summer looking for a max deal.  

Who's to say Ferry won't send him packing in exchange for some expiring contracts and picks?

It's plausible, but this move is so far from San Antonio's M.O. it's hard to imagine it coming to fruition.

Brandon Jennings to the Dallas Mavericks: 60% Chance

First and foremost, the Dallas Maverick's interest in Milwaukee Bucks' point guard Brandon Jennings is credible for a couple of reasons: Mark Cuban's “bank is still open” and he's not afraid to take on a bad contract in order to secure future assets.

Consider the fact Jennings becomes a free agent this summer and that makes a move to the Mavericks a legitimate option for both parties.  

Further, the Mavericks' signings of 38-year-old Derek Fisher and 37-year-old Mike James hint that they aren't exactly sold on Darren Collison's ability to lead their franchise.

Could Jennings fill that role?  

While Cuban didn't directly address trading for the 24-year-old point guard, he described him pretty aptly when asked about what kind of player he's looking to acquire:

"

It’s got to be a future type player that we can build around and really adds a lot. I’d analogize it to Steve Nash. Lots of players we’ve picked up over time weren’t all-stars, but turned into cornerstones. We’d take those. They don’t have to be proven, but it’d have to be someone we think it’s just a question of time. (via DallasNews.com)

"

Despite Jennings struggles from the field (a career 39 percent shooter), he has a loads of potential and the Mavericks appear to be one of the few teams willing to take on Miwaukee power forward Drew Gooden's inflated contract.

Of the trade deadline rumors thus far, I think a deal involving Jennings to the Mavs is most likely to occur.

Kevin Garnett to the Clippers: 1% Chance

I give this a one percent chance based purely on the fact that Danny Ainge's addiction to deal-making is rivaled only by his nephew's former addiction to painkillers.

After being rumored to have shopped then 24-year-old Rajon Rondo in 2011 in hopes of acquiring Chris Paul, there's little doubt he would consider moving a couple of his elderly statesmen if the opportunity presents itself.

That said, beyond the obvious issues, such as the three years and 36 million dollars left on 36-year-old Kevin Garnett's contract, KG will have to waive his no trade clause to make it possible.  According to veteran sportswriter Shaun Powell, that isn't likely:

"

Told Kevin Garnett will not waive no trade unless Pierce is dealt, and then only to LA. Lives in Malibu.

— Shaun Powell (@Powell2daPeople) February 4, 2013"

Additionally, the Clippers would probably have to part ways with promising young point guard Eric Bledsoe as well as sharp-shooter Caron Butler.  That's a lot to ask for a someone who's pushing 40 and has no doubt lost a bit of his edge on the glass.

I don't see this deal going down.

Carlos Boozer to Toronto: 15% Chance

ESPN's Marc Stein suggests Chicago is looking to capitalize on Carlos Boozer's solid season by moving him to Toronto for seven-footer Andrea Bargnani.

While Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports reports that trade discussions between the Bulls and the Raptors have died down, that doesn't mean it won't happen.

Despite the Raptors' concerns with their ability to stay under the luxury cap with the contracts of both Rudy Gay and Carlos Boozer, they could still potentially reach a deal.

In fact, according to Marc Stein, Raptors' President Bryan Coangelo says he would breach the luxury tax for "the right transaction." (via ESPN.com)

I still don't see this happening, however, as Bargnani provides very little aside from perimeter scoring, and he hasn't even done that well this season (29 percent from three-point range).

If the Bulls are looking to move Boozer's contract, they would be better served using their amnesty clause at the end of the season than committing to pay an oversized shooting guard $22 million over the next three years.

I would be surprised if this is "the right transaction" Coangelo was talking about.