Questions Surround Detroit As Tigers Open 2009 Season Today

Its that time of year again.

The start of baseball season, and with it, the horde of predictions and analysis.

I've seen many credible publications rank Detroit last place in the AL Central, no better than fourth place.

I can say right now, with confidence—that won't happen.

2006 was a prime example of everything that could go right going right for Detroit. They caught lightning in a bottle with rookies Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya. Magglio Ordonez was an MVP candidate.

They had the best defense in baseball and the best pitching as well, from the top of their rotation to the fifth starter, and they were all healthy. Even Brandon Inge had career-high numbers.The Tigers didn't win the division, but earned the wild card.

2008 then, was the very definition of everything that could go wrong going wrong. Verlander had a 17-loss season and regressed by a scary amount from his 2007 season, in which he threw a no-hitter. The rotation was injury-plagued from start to finish, and when they were healthy they pitched awful.

Guys that should have had big offensive numbers like Gary Sheffield, Curtis Granderson, and Carlos Guillen had average to awful seasons. The defense was also one of the worst in baseball, with the reliable Inge at catcher and the liability Edgar Renteria a free agent nightmare at shortstop.

One of the most intriguing storylines to follow with this team is the young, dynamic tandem of Porcello and Perry, two young Tigers prospects who beat out the odds to make the opening day roster. Many in Tigers nation are already pointing out that this years Porcello and Perry bare some similarities to 2006's Verlander and Zumaya.

So why should Detroit be expected to finish last again in 2009? They shouldn't. There are concerns with this team for sure, but if the players do what they are projected to do, this team should make the playoffs.

Starting Rotation

Justin Verlander was mainly the victim of bad defense and low run support in 2008. With Inge back at third base, and Everett at shortstop, that shouldn't be a problem any longer.

Verlander also tried a change in mechanics in 2008 which proved to be disastrous. In this year's spring training he has returned to the comfortable style he had in 2007.

Leyland also acknowledged that maybe 2008 was too early to make Verlander the opening day starter. He had trouble handling the pressure. The pressure is off somewhat now as all the expectations are for the Tigers to finish in last, not first.

All signs point to a rebound year for Verlander, and he'll definitely need to lead the way for the Tigers to be successful.

Armando Galarraga was a pleasant surprise for the Tigers last season. The Rule Five pick in his first full pro season was the best pitcher on the Tigers rotation, and because of that, he was locked into a rotation spot before spring training even began.

Galarraga had an excellent spring training, throwing for nine strikeouts in five innings in one game. If Galarraga can duplicate his 2008 success, the Tigers will have a very strong top of the rotation.

Edwin Jackson is a serviceable third starter, and would probably be better suited as a fourth or fifth man in the rotation, but the Tigers will have to make do.

Jackson doesn't throw many strikes, but he doesn't walk many batters either and has a solid WHIP. His numbers could even improve this season with the improved defense of the team.

Jeremy Bonderman will start the season on injured reserve which some might see as a bad omen. Bonderman's last fully healthy season was 2006 when he put up career high numbers. In 2007, his performance took a nosedive and his season ended on the IR.

Bonderman only appeared in 12 games in 2008, but put up decent fourth-starter numbers in those 12 games. What he does this season after surgery is anyone's guess. He could be one week away from joining the rotation or one month away.

Until then, Zach Miner will take his place.

Rick Porcello is the hotshot prospect in the Tigers organization and wowed the team in spring training to the point that he will start the season as the fifth man in the rotation.

Porcello only has 125 innings pitched at the A+ level of the minors in Lakeland, FL but was an All-Star at that level. Porcello grades out to possibly have a higher ceiling than Justin Verlander but don't expect greatness right away.

If Porcello remains with the club after Bonderman's return, he should have an up-and-down season. Expect some gems here and there, but expect struggles as well.

Overall, the rotation definitely has its question marks. The top two spots are great with average to shaky third and fourth spots. Porcello could be an AL rookie of the year, a part time call-up, or a 2007 Andrew Miller.

Grade: B-

Bullpen

Fernando Rodney will get the call to be the season opening closer. This is somewhat as a disappointment as it was Brandon Lyon's job to lose in spring training. He lost it.

Rodney's potential is pretty solid if he plays at a high level. The question is if he can handle the pressure of closing on a day-to-day basis.

Brandon Lyon will also get some starts at closer as Leyland will employ a closer by committee approach until either Lyon or Rodney emerges as the better of the two. Lyon would seem to have the upper hand as he has more experience closing games, but a shaky spring training including giving up four consecutive home runs at one point, thrust him into a competition with Rodney.

Ryan Perry could very well be this years version of 2006 Joel Zumaya. The hard-throwing righthander beat out more experienced pitchers vying for a spot, and will begin his career at the major league level.

A 2008 first-round pick, Perry could be the closer-in-waiting for the Tigers, and if neither Rodney or Lyon separate themselves by midseason, Perry could even get some closing opportunities this season. He is very highly thought of in the organization, and should be a mainstay for seasons to come.

Eddie Bonine had a fantastic spring, as he consistently mowed down batters. In 14 innings pitched, Bonine had a sparkling 0.63 ERA, only allowing one run with 7 strikeouts, 11 hits and three walks.

Bonine was a longshot to make the roster but the kind of performance he had couldn't be ignored. Bonine certainly earned his roster spot. The question is if he can put up similar numbers of the course of the season.

Bobby Seay has been a staple of the bullpen for a few seasons now and is generally one of the better bullpen performers. His ERA numbers took a big hit last season after a great 2007. Once again we can likely chalk this up to bad defense. His strikeouts did increase. Expect Seay to rebound this year to become one of the better relievers in the bullpen.

Joel Zumaya has tried the patience of many Tigers fans and the team. After a 2006 season in which he was proclaimed the future closer of this team, Zumaya's outlook is now in flux. He will start the season on the disabled list and Leyland refuses to use him until he is 100 percent healthy.

Zumaya needs to regain his confidence to be effective. After so many injuries and surgery, the question remains as to how effective he can be physically as well. All in all, this season might be Zumaya's last chance to prove himself.

Nate Robertson rounds out the bullpen and will be the long reliever. Robertson pitched himself out of the starting rotation with a horrible spring, coming off a just as awful 2008 season. He was moved to the bullpen during the last week of spring training and his numbers certainly didn't improve there either.

Robertson said it looked like his tenure with the Tigers would soon be coming to an end. It probably will be unless Robertson pitches himself out of his prolonged funk.

Overall, the bullpen should be an improvement over last season in which Tigers fans held their collective breath for the last few innings of the game. Rodney and Lyon should at least be an improvement over 40 year old Todd Jones, and Perry and Bonine should both bring some tenacity and confidence to the bullpen. If Zumaya can rebound with a solid season, then the bullpen could be one of the strengths of the team.

Grade: C+

Infield

Gerald Laird is the newcomer at catcher and throughout his career has put up modest offensive numbers. However, there aren't many catchers in MLB that can gun down baserunners like Laird.

It is Laird's defense that was coveted by the Tigers.  So as long as he continues to throw out base stealers, his modest offensive output will be overlooked, as long as it isn't too horrible.

Miguel Cabrera will be the starting first baseman this season, and has no complaints against him coming into this season. After a slow start to 2008, he ended up leading the AL in home runs while putting in a career-high 127 RBI. He batted nearly .300 as well.

Cabrera will again be counted on to lead the way on offense, and if the Tigers make the playoffs, he could be MVP material. There will be no adjustment period for Cabrera this season, so sit back and enjoy the crack of his bat. There should be plenty of it to go around.

Placido Polanco will return to second base for his fifth season in Detroit. Polanco has always been great at hitting for average and is usually good for an extra-base hit on occasion as well.

Notorious as a hard out, Polanco is great at working the pitch count to his favor and is a valuable player.

Brandon Inge will return to his favored position at third base. Historically, this is where Inge has produced his best offensive numbers. In 2006, at third, Inge hit 27 home runs and had 83 RBI as well. He also batted .253, all career highs.

While Inge will never be counted on to carry the offense, if he can come close to his 2006 numbers, it will be a good year. Inge is really at third base for his defensive skill.

There may be no better defensive third baseman in MLB than Brandon Inge. He commits very few errors and his range is all but unmatched. His athleticism and versatility is extremely valuable.

Adam Everett replaces Edgar Renteria at shortstop and brings with him a vastly improved defensive skill set.

His offensive numbers are pretty bad, but Everett will be hitting in the eighth or ninth slot most nights, so he shouldn't be too much of a liability on offense. If he can reduce runs scored and base hits, than he's doing his job.

Overall, the main upgrade in the infield is defense, defense, defense. Cabrera will lead the way on offense and if guys like Everett, Inge, and Laird exceed expectations offensively than things are looking good.

Grade: B

Outfield

Carlos Guillen will head to the outfield for the first time in his career. This is somewhat of a risky move for Detroit, but a necessary one.

Guillen became somewhat of a liability on infield defense in 2008. His offense also tanked as his home runs and RBI were both cut in half from his 2007 numbers.

Guillen might not be counted on to duplicate his 2007 season, but he'll certainly need to do better than last season. Guillen may get the nod as the DH as well some days or perhaps permanently.

Curtis Granderson will be starting off 2009 healthy which is a huge plus. The Tigers sorely missed Granderson during their awful 2008 start. Many have been waiting for Granderson's breakout season. This could be the year where it all comes together for him.

At his best, Granderson can be a skilled batter and baserunner. He should be expected to hit around .300 with 25 home runs and somewhere around 25-30 stolen bases. He is also a triple/extra base hit machine, running up 23 in 2007.

Magglio Ordonez is now the ranking veteran on the team with the departure of Gary Sheffield. Although his career may now be on the decline, he can still put up some solid numbers. Ordonez can still hit with the best of them, and don't be surprised if his name is still up there with the AL batting leaders this season.

Josh Anderson was brought on in a late spring trade and will take the roster spot of the released Gary Sheffield. Anderson was brought on for his speed and defense.

This will be his first full season in the majors, so it might be hard to predict his offensive potential. He should be a force when on-base though and will be a threat to steal. In limited action he also has a career .315 batting average. Anderson could be one of the pleasant surprises of the season.

Marcus Thames, if he isn't traded, will likely get some time in the outfield and at DH. Notoriously a streaky hitter, when Thames gets on a roll, he can hit with the best of them. At his best, he might be able to get into a home run race with Cabrera, but shouldn't be counted on to do so.

Overall, the outfield is probably the strongest unit on the team and is quite versatile. There's speed and power throughout.

Grade: B+

Final Analysis

There's a lot of ifs surrounding this team. After performing so highly in 2006, they tanked collectively in 2008. 2007 was somewhere inbetween but then that would also be a disappointment for this team.

The expectation is playoffs, and this team is talented enough to do it, but whether or not they rise to the challenge is the pressing question.