Hall of Fame Pitcher? Two Illuminating Statistics Help Decide

Baseball's Hall of Fame lacks clearly defined, specific criteria for membership.

When considering a player for inclusion in the Hall of Fame, "voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

And that is the problem.

Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson Were the First Pitchers Inducted into the Hall of Fame

Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson were the first pitchers elected to the Hall of Fame, which occurred in 1936.

The voters did not have sophisticated statistics such as WHIP (Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched), or ERA+ (Adjusted ERA+, adjusts a pitcher's ERA according to the pitcher's ballpark and the ERA of the pitcher's league.), but they had seen both men pitch.

Basic pitching statistics, such as ERA, hits per inning, strikeouts, and walks were available.

Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson Are the Template

Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson must represent the template or model for pitchers who are considered for inclusion to the Hall of Fame.

It is recognized that Johnson and Mathewson might be the two greatest pitchers in history, and that is just the point. Pitchers whose careers cannot at least compete with those of the best are not Hall of Famers.

The following brief summary sets some criteria:

Walter Johnson
WHIP = 1.061
ERA+ = 147
IP/162-game season = 274
WINS/162-game season = 19

Christy Mathewson
WHIP = 1.057
ERA+ = 136
IP/162-game season = 274
WINS/162-game season = 21

It is Difficult to Equate Different Eras

The above is an excellent guide. It is impossible to equate players from different eras.

Johnson and Mathewson played in the dead-ball era. Statistics are severely limited, but they can help provide a rough estimate of how a pitcher fared against his competition.

Another Johnson, Randy, who played 100 years after Walter, and Greg Maddux, who was more like Mathewson than either Johnson, are examples of Hall of Fame pitchers.

Randy Johnson
WHIP = 1.167
ERA+ = 137
IP/162-game season = 232
WINS/162-game season = 17

Greg Maddux
WHIP = 1.143
ERA+ = 132
IP/162-game season = 229
WINS/162-game season = 16

The similarities are obvious. Nothing can replace having seen most of a pitcher's career. The Hall of Fame's criteria must be used, but WHIP and ERA+ provide an excellent starting point when making Hall of Fame worthy decisions.

Jim Bunning, Bert Blyleven, Tommy John, and Jim Kaat:: Extremely Similar

Let us examine three pitchers whom many believe are Hall of Famers, and one Hall of Famer whom some believe should not have been elected.

Jim Bunning
WHIP = 1.179
ERA+ = 114
IP/162-game season = 230
WINS/162-game season = 14

Bert Blyleven
WHIP = 1.198
ERA+ = 118
IP/162-game season = 245
WINS/162-game season = 14

Tommy John
WHIP = 1.283
ERA+ = 111
IP/162-game season = 219
WINS/162-game season = 13

Jim Kaat
WHIP = 1.259
ERA+ = 107
IP/162- game season = 202
WINS/162-game season = 13

Blyleven, John, Kaat, and Bunning are clearly not in the same class as Walter Johnson, Mathewson, Randy Johnson, or Maddux, but there is little difference between Bunning's above statistics and those of Blyleven, John, and Kaat.

WHIP and ERA+ Are NOT Enough

After examining a pitcher's WHIP and ERA+, there must be the usual analysis. For example, Kaat pitched a lot in relief compared to Bunning, which affected his win total, but win total is often a misleading statistic.

Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux pitched a significant amount of time in the "steroid era," while Blyleven, John, and Kaat pitched in the 1960s, when pitchers dominated hitters. There is much, much more, but these examples suffice.

WHIP and ERA+ are statistics that can provide perspective when trying to determine if a pitcher belongs in the Hall of Fame. They are ONLY a starting point, but they help clarify some basic results, which can be quite valuable.

References:

Hall of Fame Criteria

Baseball-Reference