Minnesota Twins' Keys To Starting Off Strong

The 2008 Minnesota Twins started last season off 33-36, and it ultimately prevented them from winning a very winnable division. Coming into the new season, the AL Central is equally winnable, and the Twins have added some key players since last year's Opening Day.

If there are a few aspects of the game that are more important than the rest for a strong start, they are the rotation, the bullpen, the performance of Denard Span and the health of Joe Crede and Joe Mauer.

Starting with the rotation, this is more an important key than a weak spot. Each of the five starters on the staff are talented and had very good seasons last year, but are still young, inexperienced and vulnerable to a psychological letdown.

I worry that a few bad starts early on may damage any one of their mindsets, and I feel like Francisco Liriano is the most at risk.

Liriano is one of the most talented pitchers in all of baseball, and I believe he will be on every Cy Young short-list for years to come, but he is considered the ace of the staff and is expected to carry a big load throughout the season.

My concern is that he has never been a Major League starter for an entire season, and is now supposed to lead the Twins into the playoffs.

The bullpen really is more of a weak spot. Three years removed from of the best bullpens in history, the Twins are now hoping the relievers can hold it together. They went out and signed journeyman knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and former National Luis Ayala, two unimpressive pick-ups.

Dickey's best season in the MLB came in 2003, when he went 9-8 with a career-best 5.09 ERA. In other words, he's never been good. Ayala, a right-handed specialist, has a career ERA of 3.44, but went 2-10 with an ERA over five last year.

Now that he has transferred from the NL to the powerful, DH-eligible AL, it will be tough to lower the ERA. Despite my cynicism toward those two, I feel like the bullpen can improve from last year due to the others.

Matt Guerrier and his vicious curveball will pull his 2009 ERA closer to his 2007 ERA of 2.35 than his 2008 ERA of 5.19. Even after losing Pat Neshek to injury and Dennys Reyes to free agency, the pen will rally around Joe Nathan and specialists like lefty Craig Breslow and righty Jesse Crain.

The performance of Denard Span might be the biggest individual offensive indicator of how the team will start the season. After playing like an MVP over the last three months of the 2008 season, Span hit just .190 this spring.

Hopefully this is a case of a bad Spring Training and nothing else, but it could also mean that pitchers have found the holes in Span's approach, which might explain his 14 Spring strikeouts.

Span is expected to be the leadoff hitter this season, but if the strikeouts and batting average remain a problem, the Twins will be back to Square One and will probably reinsert Carlos Gomez into the lead-off spot, even though Gomez had an OBP of .296 last year.

The most important issues of all are the backs of Joe Mauer and Joe Crede. Mauer is scheduled to return in late April, but only time will tell when he really recovers from offseason kidney surgery.

Mauer, who won the 2008 AL batting title, finished fourth in AL MVP voting, and played exceptional defense all year, will be replaced by 38-year-old Mike Redmond.

Although Redmond continues to hit well (.306 average in Spring Training), he turns 39 in May and might not be able to handle the workload, even if he splits time with the Jose Morales, who has three career Major League at-bats.

If these two can cover for Mauer until he comes off the DL, and if Mauer truly is healthy then, the Twins can start off strong. Next is the health of Joe Crede, the prized free agent third baseman.

As long as Crede stays healthy, the first couple months will be great. Even if he struggles to produce, the buzz around a right-handed power bat will alter a pitcher's approach to the Twins line-up as a whole.

Should Crede re-injure his back early on, fan excitement will plunge and the same issues that have plagued the Twins since Torii Hunter left will resurface.