Why the Cleveland Cavaliers Will (or Won't) Repeat as East Champions

In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the 4th seed all but in their pockets. With the splits in the East being so large, the possibility of them moving up or down has been virtually non-existent for at least a week now.

With so little at stake in the last few weeks of the regular season, many Cleveland fans are simply waiting for the playoffs to start. They're hoping that these next couple weeks will allow the team to become healthy and develop the chemistry that's been lacking since the February trade.

In the meantime, I've taken the liberty of gathering several interesting facts and statistics that both support and challenge the possibilty of the Cleveland Cavaliers repeating as Eastern Conference Champions.

First Round - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards/Toronto Raptors

For

The Cavs went 3-1 in their regular season series against the Raptors and their only loss came on a night when LeBron was not playing.

The Cavs went 2-2 in their regular season series against the Wizards and one of those losses came on a night when LeBron was not playing. Both of them were away games on the second night of a back-to-back. One of the wins was immediately following the February trade when the four new players acquired by the Cavs were not yet cleared to play.

Cleveland will have home court advantage in the series and has done particularly well at home. Since the trade, they are 9-1 at home.

Against

The Wizards went 2-2 against the Cavs this year. At least one of those losses was when they were suffering from numerous injuries to their starting lineup. 

The Wizards have made a late season surge to take the 5th seed from Toronto. They are obviously getting healthier and gaining momentum. They will probably continue to get better as they await Gilbert Arenas' return.

Conclusion: Unless Arenas can shake off the rust quickly and provide a major spark for the Wizards, they're likely to find themselves losing to the Cavs in the first round for the second year in a row. If it's the Raptors, then Cleveland wins in 5. If Washington, then Cleveland wins in 6.

Round 2 (Semifinals) - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics

For

If anyone can beat Boston, the Cavs look like the team to do it. 

The Cavs went 2-2 in their regular season series against the Celtics, being one of only 3 teams who can claim to have beaten them twice this year. One of the losses against Boston came when LeBron was not playing. The second loss came on the second night of a back-to-back. Boston has always had at least one day of rest before playing Cleveland this season.

The Celtics have a 22-13 record against above-500 teams, meaning 39% of their wins and 87% of their losses have come to teams that currently have a winning record. Of their 15 total losses, 10 have come against Eastern Conference Teams.

Comparitively, the Cavaliers have a 17-21 record against teams above .500. 43% of their wins and only 66% of their losses came against teams above .500. 

Against

Boston went 2-2 in their regular season series against the Cavs. One of those losses came on a night when Kevin Garnett was not playing.

Boston will have home court advantage and the Cavs have been terrible on the road lately. Since the trade, the Cavs are 1-7 on the road. Boston is an amazing 31-6 at home this season. Boston won both games it played at home versus Cleveland in the regular season.

Sidenote: Typically Cleveland is thought to be favored in games where they defend well against their opponent. Ironically, of the two games won by Boston neither team scored over 100 points, but in the two games won by Cleveland both teams scored over 100 points.

Conclusion: Though Boston is the clear favorite in this series, these two teams may be more evenly matched than most people think. This series could very well go to game 7, but since it will be played in Boston, the Celtics definitely have the edge.

Eastern Conference Championship - Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons/Orlando Magic

On the slight chance that Cleveland slips past Boston, they will still have to contend with one of these two teams. Many people pick Detroit as the clear favorite, but it's way too early to forget about Orlando. Detroit could have a lot of trouble guarding Dwight Howard in the low post and coach Stan Van Gundy is quite familiar with the playoffs.

For

As I write this article, Cleveland is 1-1 so far with two games left to play in their regular season series with Detroit. The loss came on the second night of a back-to-back and included an injury to LeBron James that kept him out of the entire second half.

The Cavs are only 1-2 against Orlando so far with one game remaining in their regular season series. One of those losses (116-117) came early in the year while Varejao and Pavlovic were still holding out. The other loss was on the second night of a back-to-back. The only win was in Orlando on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Detroit-Orlando series could easily go to six or seven games, wearing heavily on both teams. 

Against

The Pistons' only loss to Cleveland so far came on the second night of a back-to-back.

Orlando is 2-1 so far with one game remaining in their regular season series against the Cavs. One of those wins came on the Cavaliers' home floor.

Whoever the Cavs play will have home court advantage. As I mentioned before, the Cavs have been playing horribly on the road, especially since the trade.

If the Cavs beat Boston, they will almost assuredly need at least six games to do it. 

Conclusion: With games still remaining against both these teams, the jury is still out on how they match up against each other. If the Cavaliers bring their best game every night, then anything is possible. Realistically, though, Cleveland would not be favored against either one of these teams.

Overall

For

The Cavs have been struggling with holdouts and injuries to key players throughout the season. They lost all six games that LeBron James missed due to injury. Assuming that the entire Cleveland roster is healthy and intact come playoff time, they could prove to be a much better team than their regular season record indicates.

So far, the Cavs have played 19 back-to-back games during this regular season. 16 of those had the second night on the road. The Cavs are 7-12 on the second night of back-to-backs so far this regular season. Since there are no back-to-back games in the playoffs, they could end up playing consistently better.

Against

Chances are high that the Cavs will have to get through both Boston and Detroit in order to claim the NBA title once again. Though the Cavs have had relatively good showings against both these teams, they will not have home court advantage and winning on the road has proved difficult for them lately.

They will have to perform even better than they did in last year's playoffs in order to defend their title as Eastern Conference Champions.

Still, don't let the overall W-L records fool you and don't count out the Cavaliers just yet. It's too early to say whether or not Cleveland can rumble with the other giants in the east. They've tweaked their roster in order to be better prepared for the playoffs and they may just surprise some people.

It wouldn't be the first time.