Brewers Hope to Build on Playoff Taste

In January 2005, the Milwaukee Brewers officially entered the modern age of major league baseball. 

During this time, the team was sold to the Los Angeles investment banker Mark Attanasio, who immediately hired Doug Melvin as General Manager.  To be a successful, low-revenue organization, given the parameters of the league, it is vital to create and sustain a niche that provides a balance of competent play, financial discipline, and fan excitement. 

Since 2005, the team in Milwaukee has accomplished each of these benchmarks, and the expectations, in 2009 and beyond, have been established.  

For better or worse, however, the ability to prognosticate individual seasons for franchises like the Milwaukee Brewers have proven to be difficult. 

It doesn't require significant research to determine that teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers will be successful in 2009. 

With higher budgets come established stars and rosters.  These teams build for the long-term and have the ability to create consistently successful teams with minimal question marks. 

On the other hand, the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers are full of question marks, and this is a direct result of the template they have created. 

It is well documented that the peak years of a major league baseball player are somewhere between the ages of 28 and 32.  Since "sample size" is a key word in predicting future success in baseball circles, it stands to reason that players within this age range will have the most predictable success in 2009 and, most likely, will slightly exceed their historical performances. 

Anyone younger can have wild fluctuations based on a variety of issues, including off-the-field adjustments.  Those older than 32 begin to show a decline in production and the level of drop-off is uncertain.

I bring this up because the Brewers' current 25-man roster, which will begin the season on Tuesday in San Francisco, has eight players between the ages of 28-32, six of which are relief pitchers.  There are only two everyday players and/or starting pitchers currently in the prime of their career—third baseman Bill Hall and starter Dave Bush. 

Not only will this team be difficult to project based on the age breakdown, but the majority of the players expected to contribute in 2008 are coming off schizophrenic seasons. 

Shortstop JJ Hardy, 26, hit 18 of his 24 home runs in June, July, and August.  He will need to provide consistent power in the five-hole throughout the season to keep pitchers honest against clean-up hitter Prince Fielder. 

Fielder signed a two-year deal in the offseason, which should temporarily table his seemingly constant fear of providing for his family. 

At only 24 years old, he carried the Brewers in September, as Ryan Braun broke down in the home stretch.  With a new body—he looks lighter—and piece of mind off the diamond, Milwaukee will need their undisputed leader to jump out of the gate quickly.

Left fielder Braun, 25, is the Brewers best player, but his body has not cooperated since the middle of last year.  Fighting various back ailments, he left the WBC early to get things in order.  And to make matter worse, he took a line drive off his thumb last week, while playing in the outfield. 

When healthy, there may not be a more complete hitter in baseball. 

For Milwaukee to be competitive in 2009, it is absolutely essential that Braun be healthy.  Right fielder Corey Hart was an all-star in 2008, but he had the most glaring decline in production on the team in the second half of the season, hitting only five of his 20 homers and batting an anemic .239.

His performance down the stretch and in the playoffs against Philadelphia was, simply put, pathetic.  He seems to look stronger, thus far, in the spring and has been hitting the ball hard. 

The ace of the starting staff should end up being Yovani Gallardo.  A tireless worker, he came back early from a torn ACL, suffered last April, to pitch in some key games down the stretch to get Milwaukee into the playoffs for the first time since 1982. 

Knowing that he pitched last season gave him some confidence during the off-season, and I would expect him to step forward as the No. 1 guy by the All-Star break. 

Other X-factors include lefty starter Manny Parra, 26, and Bush, who pitched very well at the end of last season.  Parra seemed to lose confidence in the last two months of 2008; he will need to be more consistent in the strike zone in order to maintain success. 

The veterans on the roster include catcher Jason Kendall, 34; center fielder Mike Cameron, 36; starters Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper, both 34; and closer Trevor Hoffman, 41. 

Kendall is a fantastic game manager and contact hitter.  Cameron still has some range in the field, but he needs to avoid the mental errors that seemed to creep up last year.  Suppan and Looper, who was signed as a free agent from St. Louis, are expected to stabilize the back side of the starting staff. 

Hoffman is clearly on the downside of his career, but he is also clearly an upgrade from last year, when the closers included Eric Gagne and Solomon Torres, neither of whom are on this year's team.

The most controversial transaction in 2008 was the firing of manager Ned Yost with only 12 games remaining in the season. 

Although the move was quite bizarre on the surface, interim skipper Dale Sveum guided the team to the playoffs and seemed to create a more laid back atmosphere in the dugout, a stark contrast to Yost's wound up demeanor. 

Former Oakland manager Ken Macha was hired prior to this season, with Sveum staying on as hitting coach.  Macha doesn't seem to sugarcoat things and treats his players like professionals.  This is what this team needs, since it has tasted playoff intensity and longs to return. 

The trade for CC Sabathia, during the middle of last year, was the first major move the Brewers have made since the glory days in the early 80's.  If anything, it communicated to the fanbase that there is currently a structure in place and a game plan that is committed to winning.  With eight different World Series champions in the last nine years, not being afraid of success is half the battle in today's baseball climate. 

In the end, the success of the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers depends on many uncertainties. 

Is an expected ace ready to take charge?  Has the still very young core of the team learned from its first postseason what it takes to be a champion?  Will the veterans, who have been sprinkled into the roster, form a solid base to offset the inevitable ups and downs of the youngsters?   

This upcoming 162 game war will provide the answers. 

Teams like the Milwaukee Brewers will have few sure things on a year-to-year basis.  They will have to fight and earn whatever they achieve.  In the meantime, Attanasio and Melvin will stay true to their place in the pecking order of this game—one success at a time.