Dexter Fowler: Potential Sleeper or Bust?

It was certainly a little surprising to learn that the Colorado Rockies had decided to have Dexter Fowler, their top prospect, break camp with the team instead of sending him back to the minor leagues. 

While he has a ton of potential, it was just assumed that the 23-year old outfielder would continue to get his reps, instead of potentially sitting on the Rockies bench.

It really doesn’t make sense to keep him as an extra outfielder, considering the only AB he’s had above Double-A were the 26 he had for the Rockies in a September cup-of-coffee. He needs to get experience at the plate.

Of course, there’s always the possibility that the Rockies have kept him on the roster in order to use him regularly. At this point, Seth Smith is expected to be the team’s left fielder, with Ryan Spilborghs in center.

Smith has shown some potential, but he doesn’t have the physical abilities of Fowler.  He hit just 10 HR in 248 AB at Triple-A last season, to go along with a .323 average and 11 SB.  In 108 major league AB he hit just .259 with 4 HR and 1 SB. Those certainly aren’t encouraging numbers.

Plus, you have to factor in the defense.  Fowler is already the best defensive outfielder the Rockies have.  Marc Gustafson, the team’s farm director, was quoted on mlb.com as saying, “He can do a lot of things that are pretty special.

He can track a ball on defense as well as anybody with his speed. Once he gets to it, he’s got great leaping ability, can make a diving play, and will come up and make a good throw. He’s got what many people consider to be five tools and he’s got the ability to change the game.”

Fowler enjoyed a breakout season at the plate last year, posting the following line:

421 At-Bats
.335 Batting Average (141 Hits)
9 Home Runs
64 RBI
92 Runs
20 Stolen Bases
.431 On Base Percentage
.515 Slugging Percentage
.409 Batting Average on Balls in Play

He continued with a strong spring, certainly contributing to his promotion.  He hit .314 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 14 R and 7 SB. That speed is certainly something the team dearly needs atop their line-up.

While you will want to write-off his power, he did have 31 doubles and nine triples to go along with his home run total. The potential is clearly there, though it’s unlikely for him to suddenly develop in ‘09. In time it could be there, but that’s still down the road.

His plate discipline is a concern, having struck out 21.1 percent of the time last season.  Baseball America said, “At each level he has had to adjust to the command of pitchers, and learn not to be in a hurry to chase pitches out of the zone. He has too much speed to give away at-bats and needs to make more contact with two strikes.”

They also mention that he needs to learn how to utilize his speed better. While he had 42 stolen bases in 2006 (in 65 attempts), he’s had just 20 in each of the past two seasons. He has the potential to steal significantly more, but someone needs to work with him and refine his abilities.

Gustafson said, “Once he’s on base he’s a joy to watch. If he needs to steal a base, he’s getting better at that.”  That’s hope, at least, that he could improve. It’ll take time, but at least he’s showing signs.

It’s obvious that he could struggle offensively this season, but his defense could force the Rockies hand. If he is given the opportunity to play every day, I could see him hitting around .280, while going 10/20.

If he’s leading off, he could score 80+ runs while driving in 60 or so.

Does that have value in five outfielder formats?  Absolutely.  Even with the potential struggles, his potential upside makes him worth the gamble in all deeper formats.  As for keeper leagues, he’s a no-brainer.

What does everyone else think? Is Fowler a player you want to gamble on?

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