MLB Divisional Previews: AL Central
Written by James Brown, Gatorsfirst.com Co-Founder
This is the fourth in a series of six Major League Baseball divisional previews. Check them all out right here. Today’s featured division, the AL Central, had the most parity of any division in baseball last year...
2008 Standings
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| Team | W | L |
| Chicago | 89 | 74 |
| Minnesota | 88 | 75 |
| Cleveland | 81 | 81 |
| Kansas City | 75 | 87 |
| Detroit | 74 | 88 |
2008 Summary
I’ve already stated that in 2008, this divisional was the closest in baseball, top to bottom. There was only a 15-game difference (win column) between the division winner (White Sox) and the last place team (Tigers).
This is incredible for two reasons: (1) the Royals didn’t finish last and (2) every other division had around a 30-game difference. For our purposes today, this means this division will be incredibly hard to predict.
The White Sox and Twins faced off in a one-game playoff to decide who would win the divisional crown. Personally, I disagreed with this rule, as the Twins had the better head-to-head record and should have been awarded the playoff spot.
The White Sox prevailed, and then proceeded to lose to the (don’t call ‘em Devil) Rays in the ALDS.
The Indians faded a lot more than anyone thought they would (from their ’07 showdown with the Red Sox), but I think we’re seeing late playoff runs wear on teams more and more- Boston and Cleveland had injury problems a year ago, and the Rockies sucked.
Back to the AL Central: the Tigers took a high-priced nose dive and the Royals qualified as ‘feisty’ for the first time in 84 years.
Projected Rosters
| Postion | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Indians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins |
| Catcher | A.J. Pierzynski (L) | Kelly Shoppach (R) | Gerald Laird (R) | Miguel Olivo (R) | Mike Redmond (R) |
| First Base | Paul Konerko (R) | Victor Martinez (S) | Miguel Cabrera (R) | Mike Jacobs (L) | Justin Morneau (L) |
| Second Base | Chris Getz (L) | Asdrubal Cabrera (S) | Placido Polanco (R) | Mark Teahen (L) | Alexi Casilla (S) |
| Third Base | Josh Fields (R) | Mark DeRosa (R) | Brandon Inge (R) | Alex Gordon (L) | Joe Crede (R) |
| Shortstop | Alexei Ramirez (R) | Jhonny Peralta (R) | Adam Everett (R) | Mike Aviles (R) | Nick Punto (S) |
| Left Field | Carlos Quentin (R) | Ben Francisco (R) | Carlos Guillen (S) | Jose Guillen (R) | Delmon Young (R) |
| Center Field | Dewayne Wise (L) | Grady Sizemore (L) | Curtis Granderson (L) | Coco Crisp (S) | Carlos Gomez (R) |
| Right Field | Jermaine Dye (R) | Shin-Soo Choo (L) | Magglio Ordonez (R) | David DeJesus (L) | Denard Span (L) |
| DH | Jim Thome (L) | Travis Hafner (L) | Marcus Thames (R) | Billy Butler (R) | Jason Kubel (L) |
| Bench | Brian Anderson (R) | Josh Barfield (R) | Josh Anderson (L) | Alberto Callaspo (S) | Michael Cuddyer (R) |
| Bench | Brent Lillibridge (R) | Ryan Garko (R) | Ryan Raburn (R) | Ryan Shealy (R) | Brendan Harris (R) |
| Bench | Jerry Owens (L) | Dave Dellucci (L) | Ramon Santiago (S) | John Buck (R) | Matt Tolbert (S) |
| Starting Pitcher | Mark Buehrle (L) | Cliff Lee (L) | Justin Verlander (R) | Gil Meche (R) | Scott Baker (R) |
| Starting Pitcher | John Danks (L) | Fausto Carmona (R) | Jeremy Bonderman (R) | Zack Greinke (R) | Francisco Liriano (L) |
| Starting Pitcher | Gavin Floyd (R) | Carl Pavano (R) | Edwin Jackson (R) | Kyle Davies (R) | Kevin Slowey (R) |
| Starting Pitcher | Bartolo Colon (R) | Anthony Reyes (R) | Armando Galarraga (R) | Sidney Ponson (R) | Nick Blackburn (R) |
| Starting Pitcher | Jose Contreras (R) | Scott Lewis (L) | Zach Miner (R) | Brian Bannister (R) | Glen Perkins (L) |
| Relief Pitcher | Octavio Dotel (R) | Jensen Lewis (R) | Fernando Rodney (R) | Kyle Farnsworth (R) | Jose Mijares (L) |
| Relief Pitcher | Scott Linebrink (R) | Rafael Betancourt (R) | Joel Zumaya (R) | Juan Cruz (R) | Jesse Crain (R) |
| Closer | Bobby Jenks (R) | Kerry Wood (R) | Brandon Lyon (R) | Joakim Soria (R) | Joe Nathan (R) |
Predicted 2009 Standings
| Team | W | L |
| Minnesota | 89 | 73 |
| Cleveland | 86 | 76 |
| Kansas City | 81 | 81 |
| Detroit | 74 | 88 |
| Chicago | 72 | 90 |
Chicago White Sox- Carlos Quentin was a breakout player a year ago, and without his late season injury could have been the AL MVP. Dewayne Wise, Alexei Ramirez and Josh Fields are young talents with upside.
John Danks continues the tradition of Texas Rangers pitching prospects pitching well for other teams. AJ Pierzynski, I believe an Orlando-area native, continued to wear Gator hats.
So why do I have them so low? Let me qualify all of this by saying I can never figure out GM Kenny Williams. But he’s doing something right.
For one, I never have had much confidence in Bobby Jenks. I think he’s begging to get dealt, as Linebrink and Dotel are better relievers. I also think their age (Thome in particular, but the back end of their rotation is Big Fat Bartolo Colon and Jose Contreras) will catch up to them.
Jermaine Dye debuted with the Braves and was teammates with Sid Bream, I’m pretty sure.
I see this as a transition year for them, and I think Kenny Williams takes advantage of a few teams in “win now” mode and dumps the vets. As presently constituted, this is a better than 72 win team, but something about this roster does not feel right to me.
They are not good enough to make a serious World Series run, so I think the best thing for them to do is the “Billy Beane deals Mulder, Hudson before anyone thought they’d actually be in rebuild mode” thing. Or maybe I’m bitter they wrongfully went to the playoffs last year.
Cleveland Indians- The Indians are probably most people’s favorite for the division title. The lineup is led by (favorite of the ladies) Grady Sizemore, and C/1B Victor Martinez.
Former Boston farmhand Kelly Shoppach showed some pop last season, and the ESPN depth charts I grabbed has him listed as the starting catcher, giving Martinez more time to concentrate on his prolific offensive talents.
Travis Hafner is probably done, but there’s always the threat he regains some of his old magic. Ryan Garko is serviceable, but between he and Hafner...there’s a reason I projected (Gator) Matt LaPorta to be this division’s ROY.
Shin-Soo Choo is my breakout candidate, in his last season’s worth of games he has 17 HRs and 93 RBI, and should hit near .300.
He’s turning the magical 27 this summer, and is featured in a lineup where he can be productive, so I think .300/25/100 is reachable. And I’ll take that for the $1 I gave up for him in the fantasy auction.
Cliff Lee won the AL Cy Young Award last season, but I can’t shake the memory of those previous FIVE YEARS where he sucked more often than not. No matter what your opinion of him, a regression from last year’s statistics is likely. He’s not going 22-3 again.
And Fausto Carmona has not convinced me 2007 was anything more than a lightning-in-the-bottle scenario. Both are still young, so anything is possible. But I don’t like anyone in the rest of their rotation, and I’d have a difficult time getting anyone to believe Kerry Wood will stay healthy all season.
They peaked at 96 wins two years ago. Last year, they won 81. I’ve split the difference and got them at 86 wins, which puts them in the division hunt but leaves them home come October.
Detroit Tigers- I covered this a little in the AL East preview, but I have Detroit pegged as a seller before the trading deadline.
The big offseason moves before 08 had them labeled a contender by virtually everyone, which of course resulted in a last place finish. Miguel Cabrera is an incredible talent, but he’ll be playing for a contender (hopefully my Red Sox) in August.
We’ve already seen a little bit of a youth movement, as the Gary Sheffield move makes playing time for Josh Anderson a real possibility. Look for the economy to impact this team in a big way, and for guys like Magglio Ordonez to go to some of the teams in better financial situations.
Kansas City Royals- Yes, I said the Royals have the best lineup in the division. Sure, everyone is probably tired of waiting on Alex Gordon to breakout, but this lineup is riddled with under the radar talent. Guys like Mike Aviles, David DeJesus and Jose Guillen.
Also, I like both newcomers Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs. Word on the street (well, word in the ‘burbs, I’m not exactly street-wise) is that Mark Teahen will find a place for his bat by claiming the starting gig at second, and ESPN’s depth charts (and my fantasy team) already reflect this speculation.
He doesn’t have to replicate his stellar 2006 campaign, but regular playing time could be the difference maker, and it won’t take a lot of offense to be a top option at 2B. This Royals team isn’t going to the playoffs or anything, but I’ve got them projected at .500—and Kansas City fans would probably sign up for that immediately.
Minnesota Twins- Minnesota has a very good rotation. Easily the best from No. 1 to No. 5 in the division. Scott Baker is my breakout candidate, and everyone knows what Francisco Liriano could be now that he’s healthy.
Joe Nathan has quietly been (arguably) the best closer in baseball, and they’ve got many young arms in that bullpen (I am intrigued by Jose Mijares).
About the only downside, pitching wise, is no one has really been that dominant 25 game winner before. And Pat Neshek is out for the year. They’ll also play excellent defense, as we’ve come to expect out of Minnesota teams. Don’t sleep on them, this is the best team in the division, and it starts with that pitching.
Offensively, Justin Morneau is a stud. Joe Mauer has been hurt this spring, so no one is sure what he will contribute for the entire year. Looking at the injury reports today, Morneau, Young, Crede, and Cuddyer are all listed as ‘day to day.’
I think the offense will be good enough that it won’t let down the stellar pitching.
Divisional All-star Team
If I was to make an all-star team with the best players at each position (including the bench and bullpens) it would look like this:
| Best Player | Team | |
| C | Kelly Shoppach (R) | Indians |
| 1B | Miguel Cabrera (R) | Tigers |
| 2B | Placido Polanco (R) | Tigers |
| 3B | Alex Gordon (L) | Royals |
| SS | Mike Aviles (R) | Royals |
| LF | Carlos Quentin (R) | White Sox |
| CF | Grady Sizemore (L) | Indians |
| RF | Magglio Ordonez (R) | Tigers |
| DH | Billy Butler (R) | Royals |
| B | Mark Teahen (L) | Royals |
| B | Marcus Thames (R) | Tigers |
| B | Ryan Garko (R) | Indians |
| SP | Francisco Liriano (L) | Twins |
| SP | Cliff Lee (L) | Indians |
| SP | Scott Baker (R) | Twins |
| SP | Fausto Carmona (R) | Indians |
| SP | John Danks (L) | White Sox |
| RP | Scott Linebrink (R) | White Sox |
| RP | Octavio Dotel (R) | White Sox |
| CL | Joe Nathan (R) | Twins |
Team Superlatives
| Best Lineup | Royals |
| Best Fielding | Twins |
| Best Bench | Indians |
| Best Starting Five | Twins |
| Best Bullpen | Twins |
| Best Manager | Rod Gardenhire, Twins |
Individual Player Superlatives
| Divisional MVP | Justin Morneau, Twins |
| Divisional CY | Francisco Liriano, Twins |
| Divisional ROY | Matt LaPorta, Indians |
| Breakout Hitter | Shin-Soo Choo, Indians |
| Breakout Pitcher | Scott Baker, Twins |
Let me know your thoughts on my predictions, or man up and tell me how you think it’s going to go down differently.
Chris’s NL West Preview is coming tomorrow.
You can view the original article here.
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