Can Jeremy Bonderman Bounce Back?

Jeremy Bonderman is a pitcher we have all been waiting for. We’ve heard about the talent and the promise since he made his major league debut back in 2003, unfortunately we’ve never been able to see it.

Last season his final start came on June 1, as he underwent surgery to repair a circulatory problem in his shoulder. We all want to believe that he can return to the mound this season and return to form, but exactly what would he be returning to?

He has never posted an ERA under 4.08 in any season, sporting a career mark of 4.74 over 994.2 innings. 

Of course, he reached the major leagues in 2003, after being a first round pick in 2001, so one could argue that he was rushed a bit.

The strikeout potential has always brought the appeal, though even that has lacked consistency (listed below is his K/9):

• 2003 - 6.00
• 2004 - 8.22
• 2005 - 6.90
• 2006 - 8.50
• 2007 - 7.49
• 2008 - 5.55

It’s easy to disregard last season’s number without hesitation, but what about the rest?  I know I’ve listed him as a potential late-round steal for strikeouts, but that is by far no guarantee.

He has an electric fastball, though it has decreased in speed the last three seasons, going from an average of 93.3 to 92.0 to 91.0. Maybe the shoulder problem contributed to that...In fact, it probably did, so a rebound is certainly likely.

Is he going to return to striking out batters in the low-to-mid eights?  I tend to doubt it, though there’s a chance. He has just been way too up-and-down throughout his career to expect him to get back to that number.

Injuries have certainly been a detriment, but after years of problems, it’s tough to imagine him returning to that type of form.

While he’s only made one spring appearance (two innings), he did not register a strikeout. He is scheduled to start today, but the chances of him being ready to open the season with the team seem nonexistent. According to mlb.com (click here for the article), Bonderman is only expected to miss one start, but who knows.

That certainly has to be factored into his value.  He’s only made at least 30 starts in two seasons, so the idea of him missing time should not be a surprising one.

He has a career WHIP of 1.39, only twice being below 1.35. Control has not been his issue though, with a career BB/9 of 3.04.  In fact, prior to last season he had post years of:

• 2005 - 2.71
• 2006 - 2.69
• 2007 - 2.48

Last season the control suffered, with a BB/9 of 4.54, but the injury certainly was a factor there. A rebound is very likely.

It was bad luck that fully did him in. In 2005 his BABIP was .314, placing him eighty-first in the league.  In the subsequent years it was even worse, at .328 and .329. Obviously, with a bit of better luck he has the potential to put up a very solid WHIP going forward.  Still, after years of bad luck, is it a trend that can be broken?

With all that said, what do I expect from him in 2009?  Let’s take a look:

158.0 IP, 10 W, 4.39 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 129 K (7.35 K/9), 52 BB (2.96 BB/9)

Those are solid numbers. They even would worth using as a short-term fill-in or if the match-up is right, but I would not look to him as a pitcher that will certainly slide into the back of your rotation and be a mainstay for the entire season. He just has never proven to be that pitcher in the past, so why should we suddenly expect it now?

That’s not to say that he’s not worth drafting in the later rounds as a high risk, high reward guy. At that point, what do you really have to lose? I just wouldn’t expect too great a reward. I would temper my expectations.

What about you? Is Bonderman a pitcher you are going to gamble on? Why or why not?

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