NL East Projected Standings: Will Atlanta Spoil the Phillies' Title Defense?

Note: All team projections were found using the FEINs projections. An explanation behind projected wins, losses, and other stats can be found here.

1. Atlanta Braves

Atlanta allowed 4.86 runs per game last year. But the Braves let Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Tim Glavine, Chuck James, and Blaine Boyer pitch a combined 353 innings, and in those, they allowed 254 runs, or a 6.48 runs-per-nine average.

If you take out their stats from Atlanta's team totals, the Braves' remaining pitchers allowed just 4.33 runs per nine and had an ERA of 3.93.

The Braves made two of the most underrated moves in the offseason, signing pitchers Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe. Those two have a combined projected runs-per-nine average of 3.98 in 375 innings—60 percent of the runs allowed average of the above five pitchers.

If you fill in their projected stats into the Braves' remaining totals, Atlanta's runs allowed average is lowered from 4.33 to 4.24 and their ERA from 3.93 to 3.86.

Vazquez has always been an enigma. In his three years with the Chicago White Sox, his ERA based on his components (which is the formula I use to predict ERA after I project the player's hits allowed, home runs, etc.) was 4.02—and his actual was 4.40 ERA.

Now, remember that Vazquez is also moving from the AL to the NL and from a slight hitters' park to a neutral park in Atlanta. In Atlanta's park, Vazquez's 4.40 ERA in Chicago is lowered to 3.68.

If I do the same for his adjusted ERA, the 4.04 lowers to 3.58. His strikeouts-per-nine is 9.30 in Atlanta, compared to 8.56 in Chicago, and his WHIP is 1.19 in Atlanta, compared to 1.25 in Chicago.

You can see why Vazquez's projected 3.65 ERA is not crazy at all. Nor is his projected 200 strikeouts and 9.56 strikeouts-per-nine rate; nor is his projected 1.17 WHIP or his projected 0.91 homers-per-nine rate, which would be the lowest of his career.

Those stats rank him No. 6 among pitchers—currently, he's being drafted as the No. 35 starting pitcher in ESPN.com leagues and as the No. 28 starter in Yahoo! leagues. He's by far the biggest bargain of your draft.

As for Derek Lowe, he's had a 3.59 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in his four years in Los Angeles, posting a 3.24 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 211 innings last year. Moving from the Dodgers to Atlanta won't affect his stats, though; the biggest difference is that Turner Field allows slightly more home runs than Dodger Stadium.

Lowe is projected to have a 3.69 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 187 innings. He's ranked 14th among starters by FEIN; he's going around the same spot as Vazquez in drafts on ESPN.com and Yahoo!.

Along with Vazquez and Lowe, the Braves have two more pitchers projected to have a sub-4.00 ERA: Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Hudson has had an ERA under 3.55 in every year since 2001 except for a 4.86 ERA in 2006.

FEIN projects a 3.78 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 151 innings—of course, however, Hudson won't be back from Tommy John surgery until mid-August.

Jurrjens, in his rookie season, had a 3.68 ERA and finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Jurrjens' projected ERA is 3.99, and he makes the Braves one of only two teams (along with the Red Sox) to have four starters with a sub-4.00 ERA.

In the lineup, third baseman Chipper Jones flirted with a .400 batting average last year and ended the year at .364 with a 1.044 OPS, his highest since 1999.

Despite that, he finished as the No. 6 third baseman last year in Yahoo! leagues. He's projected to have a .313 AVG, a .941 OPS, 21 homers, and under 80 RBI and runs to finish as the No. 4 third baseman.

Catcher Brian McCann hit .301 with 23 home runs and 87 RBI last year, numbers you'd expect from your first baseman. His projected .298 AVG, 19 homers, and 78 RBI make him the No. 3 catcher, behind Russell Martin and Joe Mauer, and worth the No. 40 overall pick.

The Phillies are the reigning World Series champs, and the Mets have been in contention for the NL East title the past two years—but Atlanta is scary good. The Braves are returning nearly the exact same offense, plus Garrett Anderson.

They lost John Smoltz, but the signings of Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe should escalate the Braves to the Wild Card, if not the NL East crown.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia won the World Series last year, and they arguably may have improved during the offseason, essentially trading Pat Burrell for Raul Ibanez. They won 92 games last year and outscored their opponents by almost three-fourths per game.

They had four hitters with an OPS over .860 (minimum 300 PA), had the second-lowest bullpen ERA (3.22), had one pitcher with a 3.09 ERA, and another with a 3.71 ERA.

But in the last 11 years, the winner of the World Series has lowered its win total from their championship year to the next by an average of nine, and nine of those 11 teams saw their wins decrease.

This may be natural regression to the mean, but in that same span, the loser of the World Series has only had 5.6 wins taken off their record the next year, with only seven of the 11 teams seeing a decline in their wins (three improved, and one stayed the same).

Second baseman Chase Utley has been one of the best players in the past three or four years. Since 2006, Utley has been the second-best in the field—at 46 runs above the average second baseman, behind only Pedro Feliz—and has been worth over $94 million, second-highest behind only Albert Pujols.

In fact, he's earned over $32 million from his production each of the past two years.

Like the Phillies, however, Utley will see a decrease, according to FEIN. Utley had 33 home runs, 113 runs, and 14 steals in 2008, and he's had over 100 RBI and a .900 OPS in every year since 2005. Utley is projected to have 28 homers, 106 runs, 99 RBI, 13 steals, and a .897 OPS next year, which makes him worth the No. 5 overall pick.

Philadelphia will get the majority of their homers and RBI by Ryan Howard, who's had over 47 homers and 135 RBI every year since 2006; but his AVG and OPS have both fell every year, from a .313 AVG and 1.048 OPS in 2006 to a .251 AVG and .881 OPS last year.

FEIN projects 43 homers, 124 RBI, a .944 OPS, and a .272 AVG in 2009, and though his counting stats seem down, his low PA (projected for 625) may account for the lowliness—in 700 PA, he's projected to have 48 homers, 139 RBI, just under 100 runs, and 198 strikeouts.

He's ranked No. 12 overall and third among first baseman, behind Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.

Shortstop Jimmy Rollins is the third Phillies hitter ranked in the top 10 among hitters. Rollins is ranked No. 10 overall (No. 9 among hitters, one spot ahead of Howard) and the third shortstop, behind Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes. In 2007, Rollins had a career year, setting new highs in home runs (30), runs (139), RBI (94), and AVG (.296).

Last year, however, Rollins failed to reach 700 PA for the first time in four years; still, he set a career high in steals with 47—59 steals if he had the number of PAs he had in 2007—but only hitting 11 homers—14 if he had 778 PA. Rollins is projected to have 18 homers, 104 runs, 36 steals, and a .285 AVG in 2009.

World Series MVP Cole Hamels is coming off a year in which he posted a 3.09 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP—career lows—and finished as the No. 7 pitcher in Yahoo! leagues. FEIN thinks Hamels will decline significantly, projecting a 3.60 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 190 strikeouts in 205 innings.

Those numbers, nonetheless, make him the No. 5 pitcher and No. 19 overall; he's being drafted as the No. 4 pitcher in Yahoo! leagues and No. 6 in ESPN.com leagues.

Philadelphia will regress from their 92 wins last year, but the defending World Series champions will be in the hunt to win the NL East title all year long. They are forecasted to win just one-tenth of a game less than the Braves—that's how tight the division race will be next year.

3. New York Mets

For the second straight year, the Mets were near the top of the NL East race late in the year...and proceeded to fade in September. New York was 40-42 after June, but they went 36-19 in the next two months to take a one-game lead in the division over the Phillies.

At one point, they were 86-67 (after a 10-6 September) and half a game ahead of Philadelphia—but they managed to go 3-6 in their last nine as the Phillies went 6-2, and they lost the division in the final weeks for the second year in a row.

Unfortunately, they won't be in the division race this year—or, fortunately, they won't be in the division race this year to blow a lead.

Across the board, the hitting projections for the Mets are somewhat low, but there's an explanation for that. In the FEIN projections, there's a step for adjusting to the player's park.

Shea Stadium had a factor of around .97 or .98 for every stat I adjusted, meaning that from a neutral park to Shea Stadium, you would multiply a player's stats by .97 or .98 to appropriately for the park factor, or in other words, Shea Stadium was a pitcher's park.

The Mets are moving into Citi Field this year, and though we don't know how the park will play out until the season starts, early predictions say that Citi Field will allow about 10 less runs over 81 home games than Shea Stadium.

That difference would lower the Mets' park factor from around .97 or .98 to .95 or .96; I chose a park factor of .95 for every stat.

David Wright has had a .300 AVG, a .900 OPS, 26 home runs, and 100 RBI in each of the last four years. FEIN projects 102 runs, 27 homers, 106 RBI, 21 steals, and a .297 AVG in 2009. Despite the low numbers, Wright ranks No. 4 overall and tops among third basemen.

Shortstop Jose Reyes has 37 more steals than anyone else in the past three years; he's averaged 66 steals per year in those three. He's also had over 110 runs in each of those three years, with an average of 118. He's projected to have 109 runs, 14 homers, and 61 steals next year. He ranks one spot ahead of Wright at No. 3 overall.

The Mets acquired Carlos Beltran four years ago, and the 31-year-old's numbers have been declining since his 41-homer season in 2006.

He's seen a drop in his home runs and RBI every year (per plate appearance), as well as in his SLG and OPS. Strangely, however, his average and number of steal attempts (both raw and per PA) have improved each year.

What does FEIN see? Beltran is projected to have a .267 AVG, a .834 OPS, 28 home runs, 101 RBI, and 20 steals—only he and teammate David Wright are projected to have at least 20 homers, 20 steals, and 100 RBI. FEIN ranks Beltran at No. 15 overall and No. 3 among outfielders.

As well as their core of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, the Mets have the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana. Santana's had a sub-3.00 ERA in four of the last five years, including a 2.53 ERA in his first season in New York.

Even after switching to the NL, Santana posted his first season with a less than a strikeout per inning since 2001, though he still had over 200. FEIN projects a 3.26 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, 15 wins, and 212 strikeouts in 207 innings, which makes him the No. 1 pitcher and No. 8 overall.

With Billy Wagner out for the 2009 season with elbow surgery, the Mets elected to sign free agent reliever Francisco Rodriguez to take over the closer position. Rodriguez had 62 saves and a 2.24 ERA last year, and he's had a a strikeouts-per-nine rate of 10 or more in every season since 2004.

He's projected to have 37 saves (third-highest in the majors), with a 2.83 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts in 69 innings. He's ranked No. 5 among relievers and No. 18 among all pitchers.

Though the Mets are forecasted to win just 83 games, there's no doubt that Mets fans would rather be three or four games out of the division crown heading into September and end six games out than be tied at the top or leading the division and blowing it in the final week.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times...Well, there won't be a third time for the Mets.

4. Washington Nationals

The Nationals had the worst record in the majors last year. They scored less than four runs per game, the first time a team had done that since 2005—when the Nationals scored 639 runs.

But with the acquisitions of Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham and the return of Nick Johnson (he had only 147 PA in 2008), Washington has a decent lineup that is projected to score 4.83 runs per game.

The problem, however, is that the Nationals have no pitching whatsoever. Although eight teams are projected to allow more runs than them, Washington's top three starters—John Lannan, Scott Olsen, and Daniel Cabrera—are projected to have a combined 4.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 520 innings.

Their closer, Joel Hanrahan, had a 3.95 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 84 innings in his first season as a reliever in 2008. FEIN projects a 4.21 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 77 innings; the 4.21 ERA is the third-worst among closers, behind Brandon Lyon and Mark Lowe.

Adam Dunn has had exactly 40 home runs in the each of past four years, but FEIN projects just 33, due to regression to the mean. Dunn had a .236 AVG last year, and he's projected to improve that to .254. His projected 94 RBI and 86 runs make him the No. 16 outfielder.

Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman had a .283 AVG and a .774 OPS in 466 PA last year, and his 51 runs and RBI would equate to just 79 in 722 PA, his 2007 total; he had over 90 runs and RBI in '07. In 487 PA, Zimmerman is projected to have 16 home runs, 63 runs, and 66 RBI, with a .281 AVG and a .796 OPS.

In his last full season of play in 2006, Nick Johnson had 23 homers, 100 runs, 77 RBI, 10 steals, a .290 AVG, and a .948 OPS. He missed 2007 with a broken leg, and in 2008 only had 147 PA, and his production was down all around, with a .220 AVG and .846 OPS.

Johnson is projected to have only 343 PA, and in 600 PA, he'd be projected to have 21 home runs, 80 runs and RBI, five steals, a .285 AVG, and a .909 OPS. He's worth a flier in the late rounds of your draft.

Outfielder Elijah Dukes is no lock to stay healthy all year; the most games he's played in a season is 81. But, sometime, he's due for a breakout—he had 13 steals and home runs last year in 334 PA; in 600 PA, that's equal to 23 of each, plus 86 runs and 79 RBI.

FEIN projects just 290 PA, but here are his per-600 PA projections: .275 AVG, .873 OPS, 25 homers, 17 steals, 79 runs, and 74 RBI.

In comparison, here's the projection of one player next year: .276 AVG, .805 OPS, 23 homers, 15 steals, 79 runs, and 83 RBI; more or less, the two players are equal, and Dukes may have a slight edge. The second player is Torii Hunter, who's ranked No. 19 among outfielders.

Washington may seem like a 60-win team—what with their terrible pitching and still-haven't-broken-out offense—but they are capable of winning 75 or 80 in 2009.

Maybe just not conventionally.

5. Florida Marlins

Florida may be the trendiest sleeper pick of the year aside from Kansas City. What's not to like? They won 84 games last year, they found a gem in Ricky Nolasco, and they have arguably one of the best players in the league in Hanley Ramirez.

What's not to like is the departures of Mike Jacobs and Joe Nelson, and the trade of Kevin Gregg, Josh Willingham, and Scott Olsen for Emilio Bonifacio and a minor league. What's not to like is that the Marlins have no veteran pitchers—they have only two pitchers projected have have over 100 innings.

Nolasco was one of the big surprises for the Marlins last year, posting a 3.52 ERA, a minuscule 1.10 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts in 212 innings. In 2006, though, Nolasco had a 4.82 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and 99 strikeouts in 140 innings. (He only had 21 innings in 2007.)

FEIN projects a 4.01 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts in 170 innings. He's ranked No. 25 among starters.

After Tommy John surgery cut short his 2007 season, Josh Johnson came back strong in 2008, putting up a 3.61 ERA in 14 starts. It was only three years ago that Johnson had a 3.10 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 157 innings in his rookie season, and he's projected to have a 3.78 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts in 95 innings in 2009.

Shortstop Hanley Ramirez had 33 homers, 125 runs, 35 steals, a .301 AVG, and a .940 OPS in 2008, after 29 home runs, 125 runs, 51 steals, a .322 AVG, and a .948 OPS the year before. It's impossible to say whether he's more of a threat to hit 40 homers or steal 40 bases, because he's capable of both.

He's projected to have 26 homers, 39 steals, 116 runs, 70 RBI, a .310 AVG, and a .907 OPS in 2009. His 26 homers and 39 steals give him a forecasted Power/Speed number of 31.2, highest in the league. FEIN ranks him No. 1 overall.

Second baseman Dan Uggla has floated around 30 homers, 90 RBI, and 100 runs in his three years in the majors, but his AVG has fluctuated from .282 to .245 to .260 last year, and his strikeout rate has increased by six percent each year.

FEIN sees a slight drop from those numbers, with a projected line of 28 homers, 85 RBI, and 94 runs, with a .260 AVG and .815 OPS. He's ranked No. 5 among second baseman and No. 52 overall.

As the Marlins' offseason showed, they aren't looking to contend in 2009. With Matt Dominguez, Cameron Maybin, Ryan Tucker, Jose Ceda, Chris Volstad, Emilio Bonifacio, and all their other young prospects, Florida will be at the top of the NL East in four or five year.

It's just not their time right now.