Come To Think of It: NL Central Division Preview

The Chicago Cubs have owned the NL Central for the past two years, but will that dominance continue? I'll take a look at each team, what they've done in the offseason, and assess their chances.

Starting in reverse order of their 2008 finish...

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates seem to be moving in the right direction, though they should still be the doormats in the division. They focused on their own youth this winter, extending Ryan Doumit, Nate McLouth and Paul Maholm instead of pursuing pricey free agents, which makes sense considering how far away they are from contending.

Look for GM Neal Huntington to try and see what he can get in return for Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche, and John Grabow while trying to avoid 100 losses.

Cincinnati Reds

Former Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty built a consistent winner in St. Louis and looks to do the same for a Reds organization that hasn't had a winning season since 2000.

First of all, the pitching staff has some impressive young talent. Edinson Volquez, acquired in the Josh Hamilton trade with the Rangers, went 17-6 in 2008, Last year's front four are returning.  Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto combined for a 4.38 ERA in 754.3 innings last season. Micah Owings and Homer Bailey are battling it out for the 5th spot.

The Reds had a decent bullpen last year, and they covered the loss of Jeremy Affeldt with the signing of Arthur Rhodes.

The Reds biggest problem, apart from having Dusty Baker as manager, is the defense. They ranked dead last in 2008. Willy Tavares may help solidify the defense in center field and the loss of Adam Dunn won't hurt their outfield defense, to be sure.

Despite their talented rotation, the Reds offense doesn't appear strong enough for the Reds to seriously challenge in the division in 2009.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals added shortstop Khalil Greene, who had a miserable season in 2008. They really didn't make a lot of other newsworthy moves.

Last year's offense scored 4.81 runs per game, fourth in the NL.  Using CHONE projections and Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool, their 2009 lineup projects at an even five runs per game.

Offensively, one big question is if outfielder Ryan Ludwick can repeat his surprising 2008 season. Also, Albert Pujols is coming off of elbow surgery. Further, third baseman Troy Glaus is an injury candidate once again.

One variable could be the emergence of outfielder Colby Rasmus, who may make the team as a rookie or be called up before mid season.

But the real key will be the rotation. If Chris Carpenter comes back healthy, that will be a huge boost to the starting staff. The former Cardinals ace has not allowed an earned run in 19 innings this spring.

The rotation features Adam Wainwright, Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, and Joel Pineiro. Missing is Braden Looper's 199 innings and 4.16 ERA.

In the bullpen, the Cards added some lefty help, and the subtraction of Villone, Isringhausen, and Flores is a positive.

They took a hit defensively in the middle infield, but look for the Cards to be in contention until about August. A healthy and productive Carpenter could keep them in contention to the end however.

Houston Astros

Not that spring results mean much, but the Astros currently have the worst record in the Grapefruit league at 8-16. At least Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada's legal troubles are behind him, having received probation for misleading Congress during steroid investigations.

Third base is a mess, with Geoff Blum and Aaron Boone, who's out after having undergone heart surgery. It's also hard to believe that pitcher Mike Hampton will make $20 million in 2009.

Offensively, they can always count on Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, but perhaps their most important player is Michael Bourn, who has speed but can't steal first base. A turnaround doesn't seem likely as he finished the 2008 season with a .229 batting average and 111 strikeouts.

The rotation is once again led by Roy Oswalt, who just returned from the WBC. Manager Cecil Cooper expects Pudge Rodriguez to make a difference with the staff, but it's hard to see the Astros contending in 2009.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have been the Cubs main challengers the past two seasons, and they made the playoffs as a wild card in 2008.

The main subtraction from last season is obviously CC Sabathia and he will be sorely missed, having pitched spectacularly after being acquired. They also lost the oft-injured Ben Sheets, without signing any big name to replace them.

The Brewers bullpen is also missing some key contributors from 2008.

But the Brewers' offensive unit returns remarkably intact. All eight of the primary positional starters return, plus backup catcher Mike Rivera and utility infielder Craig Counsell.

While the Brewers certainly didn't improve and probably got worse during the offseason, expect them to contend once again in 2008, with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder leading the way.

Chicago Cubs

It's not often that a team with 97 wins makes so many changes, but GM Jim Hendry certainly shook up the roster this offseason. While they probably won't miss Mark DeRosa's offense, with the capable Mike Fontenot replacing him at second base, they will miss his versatility. They signed Aaron Miles to be their main utility player in 2009.

Hendry also spent the offseason focused on improving the balance of the team, adding switch-hitters and lefty hitters to a lineup that was too right-handed dominant in 2008. The biggest acquisition was Milton Bradley, who is too much of an injury risk to predict accurately.

The other loss this offseason was letting Kerry Wood sign as a free agent with the Indians. That means that Kevin Gregg, who blew the most saves in all of baseball last season, and Carlos Marmol will battle it out for the closer's spot.

In the outfield, the center field position figures to be a platoon between Kosuke Fukudome, who hit only .212 in the second half last season, and Reed Johnson. In an ideal world, the at-bats would be split between Johnson and the speedy Joey Gathright. Unfortunately, Fukudome makes a ton of money so he will be given every chance to prove that he can return to the player he was in the first half of 2008.

In the rotation, it's hard to project Ryan Dempster repeating hsi outstanding 2008 season, while Rich Harden is a major injury risk. Sean Marshall basically replaces the departed Jason Marquis.

Overall, while the team didn't improve during the offseason, it should be good enough to repeat as division champs. The main hope is that they will improve upon their embarrassing 2008 performance in the playoffs once they do make it.