2008 MLB Preview: NL West

So the 2008 season is underway—in Japan no less.

In light of the Red Sox 6-5, ten-inning win, I guess it's fitting that I finally wrap up these previews with the NL West.

Reverse order like normal:

San Francisco Giants (2007 Results: 71-91, fifth in NL West): The Giants took the first steps on the road to becoming a real team and not just a sideshow in ditching Barry Bonds. Gone will be Bonds’ locker room recliner, his plasma TV, and his three lockers, and in his place will be a team looking to rebound from a historic, yet catastrophic era.

The Giants are one of three NL West teams with a new Centerfielder—Aaron Rowand. Granted Rowand’s bat isn’t as devastating as Bonds’ in his prime (steroids or not), but with the slide in Bonds’ 2007 numbers (.276, 28 homers, 66 RBI, 54 strikeouts), Rowand should provide someone who can hit consistently (.309, 27 homers, 89 RBI, 119 strikeouts), a gold glove presence in centerfield, and a personality who isn’t a completely distasteful lunatic—two of those things Bonds wasn’t providing.

Now before the season, you’d believe that Dave Roberts and Randy Winn would occupy left and right field respectively. However, despite the experience these two bring to the lineup Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis, and Nate Schierholtz could all see significant time in the outfield this season in a platoon, or even a starter’s role.

It’ll be interesting to see who out of those three can end up with a Major League job, but whomever does, the answer as to where they’ll play seems to be splitting time in left field with Dave Roberts. However, a platoon of Davis (.282 average, 17 steals) and Lewis (.287, 3 homers, 19 RBI) might be better than an aging Dave Roberts altogether.
 
We touched a little bit on the ineptitude of the infield during the NL East preview but we’ll give it a second going-over.

At third base, barring any further acquisitions, the job will be given to either Rich Aurilia or Kevin Frandsen. Aurilia is a 36-year-old utility-man coming off an injury-shortened season, while he’s a year removed from his .300/23/70 2006, which (given his track record) seems to more of an aberration than anything, while Frandsen has had success defensively at third in the past, he’ll have to hit like every month is September (.370 average in September last season) if he has any hopes of earning a starting role.

Over at first, Dan Ortmeier—a veteran of 22 whole Major League games at first—will be expected to reproduce his 2007 season of .287/6/16 in 62 games. Unfortunately, there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Ortmeier to produce, unless the Giants pick up a veteran presence to help him out, so the kid will have to be up to proving himself the entire season.

Up the middle it’s all about…experience. Sure, that’s what we’ll call it. Ray Durham (36) and Omar Vizquel (40) make up the tandem, and offensively you shouldn’t expect too much from these guys. Durham took a long fall from grace, as there was almost an 80-point difference between his 2006 and 2007 averages, while in 2007 his run production was essentially non-existent. That’s not even considering that he could lose his job to Frandsen, who seems to be a threat all over the infield.

Vizquel meanwhile, is more known for his 11 Gold Gloves than his bat. Vizquel has never been one to hit the ball out of the park, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes the year with no long-balls, while it’s not out of the question for his average to continue to plummet (down to .246 in 2007 from .297 in 2006). Then we get to the fact that Vizquel has spent the spring recovering from knee-surgery, and he’s not expected to be ready in time for the season’s opening week. So who takes his place? One of Brian Bocock, Emmanuel Burriss or Ivan Ochoa—none of which have seen time in the Majors—reassuring eh?

Behind the plate, Bengie Molina is making his way through the spring on an injured quad, but (overlooking the fact that he’s slower than Michael Moore on his way to the gym) he’ll be looked to for some offensive spark this season. Molina was able to post a second consecutive year of 19 homers in 2007, while seeing action in a career-high 134 games, and posting a .991 fielding percentage.

But this could be where the mediocrity ends however. Despite the age and chronic ineffectiveness across some of the position-players, and the youth and inexperience in the others, the Giants sport a plethora of talented young arms that could offer fans some positives this season.

First of all, we all know that Barry Zito signed an enormous contract last season. We also know that he’s a former Cy Young award winner. 2007 was also the first time in his career that Zito finished with fewer than 200 innings (196.2) after competing in more than 30 games. I won’t lie: I’ve never been impressed with Barry Zito personally, but he has posted some great numbers, and has the hardware to back him up (if not for last year’s 11-13 record, he also would have joined Houston’s Roy Oswalt in the “Pitcher’s who’ve never had a losing season” club). Can Zito be better in 2007? Definitely. I’m just not banking on him to win more than 15 games.

The two arms that everyone’s concerned with though, are Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Cain was able to top 200 innings for the first time in his career, although he saw a significant change in his record (13-12 in ’06 to 7-16 in ’07) and a drop in his strikeout numbers. Lincecum was surrounded with trade rumors this off-season, however he certainly earned that interest as he averaged 6.25 strikeouts per start— the best ratio amongst the “big three”. The Giants were definitely smart to hold on to these two, and with Zito locked up for another six seasons, they certainly have the building blocks to have a strong rotation for future MLB seasons.

However the strength doesn’t stop there as Noah Lowry, the staff leader in wins with 14 returns, hoping to improve upon his 14-8, 3.92 ERA of last season, while Kevin Correia provides a solid number five man with a 3-1 record over eight starts with a 2.54 ERA if he can win the job from Jonathan Sanchez. The only issue between these three is that Lowry won’t be available until the middle of April as he’s recovering from arm surgery.

Granted the rotation hasn’t looked exceptional in spring, but that’s what spring is for—to get out the kinks.

As for the bullpen, well there aren’t any significant changes to the Giants relief corps. Brad Hennessey, Tyler Walker (who seemed to return nicely from Tommy John surgery—2-0, 1.26 ERA), and Brian Wilson (6/7 in saves, 2.28 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 23 innings) will all be back at the end of the bullpen while Jack Taschner seems to have earned himself a spot with his performance this spring. Vinnie Chulk needs to be healthy if he expects to make this team, while Steve Kline needs to be effective. Meanwhile, a handful of hopefuls are left to compete for a limited amount of spots in the bullpen, which could be determined by those that are out of minor-league options (Merkin Valez and Erick Threets).

Whatever happens in the bullpen however, the Giants will now be forced to reap the results of their decision not to chase a ‘big-name’ reliever this past off-season, but with a ‘big-name’ pain in their rear-view mirror, at least the Giants can concentrate on being a team now instead of being the 24 “other guys”.

2008 Prediction: 72-90, fifth in NL West.

San Diego Padres (2007 Results: 89-74, third in NL West): I’ll tell you what worries me about the Padres: Age and health.

Sure, if he’s healthy Jim Edmonds could be a factor, but word out of camp is that he’ll start the season on the DL, which is just super. I mean, that’s what you really want isn’t it? A former Gold Glover, and a guy who could get you 20 home runs sitting on the bench with a sore calf.

Then you’ve got Brian Giles, who could be hitting leadoff for this team (I mean, he did pretty well in the role last year) but he’s recovering from off-season knee surgery.

So with two aging, fragile starting outfielders on your roster, who steps up?

Well, Mr. Clutch (Scott Hairston) gives me some hope. This guy had bounced around the league for a bit, but once he landed in San Diego, he hit eight homers in 31 games, and hit a career-high .287, and he’s also a candidate to hit lead-off. He brings versatility to the outfield, so here’s hoping he can harness that offensive power for another year.

Youngster Chase Headley is trying to make the switch from third base to the outfield, which would give the Padres two strong hitting players with the ability to play third base (Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff).

But then it becomes a mess of names: Chip Ambres, who’s seen time with the Royals and Mets is being considered, as well as MLB vets Jeff Davannon, Jody Gerut, and Paul McAnulty, who’s looking to finally earn an extended stay on the Padres’ roster. All of these guys have the ability to fit in, but the problem with the outfield, is where the offense is going to come from.

On the infield, the jig-saw is a little less puzzling and the offense is a little more prevalent: Adrian Gonzalez posted his first 30 homer/100 RBI season, and also showed some flash fielding the ball. Khalil Greene proved what he can do when he stays healthy, posting a 27/97 season, as well as some highlight-reel fodder with his play at shortstop, and Kevin Kouzmanoff overcame a rough first half to finish the season strongly with 18 homers, 74 RBI, and a .275 average. Granted his defensive play isn’t that of legend, but unless he suddenly turns into Russ Adams overnight, that should improve with experience.

The new face on the infield however, is at second base in Tadahito Iguchi. Iguchi’s offensive numbers dropped off in 2007, however that could be attributed to the fact that he was seeing less time in Chicago, and was then faced with a mid-season move to the Philadelphia Phillies, where he posted near-halves of his season totals (90 games played for the Sox, 45 for the Phillies; 6 homers in Chi-town, 3 in Philly, 31 RBI in the Windy City, and 12 RBI in the City of Brotherly love…ok I’m done). However, Iguchi did hit at a .304 clip in his first NL stint, so it’ll be interesting to see if that late-season success transfers over the NL West and whether Matt Antonelli will eventually supplant him as the Padres’ second baseman.

Then behind the plate, the platoon of Josh Bard and Michael Barrett returns. Both catchers have some flair offensively, but are also adept at playing the defensive side of the position, despite not having great numbers throwing out base runners (which is due, in large part, to the pitching staff).

But at least we’ve got the NL Triple Crown winner in Jake Peavy!! 19 wins, a 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts proved to be a very successful season for Peavs, who ended up taking home the NL Cy Young award as well as the honor of the crown, finishing one win away from the MLB Pitching Triple Crown.

Following him will be Chris Young and Greg Maddux. Maddux proved that being born in 1966 is still a good thing, although he missed out on pitching in at least 200 innings for the second time since 1988—but I guess since he’s got 347 career wins we can forgive him eh (Note: Over 40—300 wins or not, I’m wary of him breaking down this year)? Meanwhile, Young will look to capture his pre-All Star break magic when he went 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA, rather than the 1-5 4.80 injury-riddled post-All Star Break…malfunction, for lack of a better word.

And then we’ve got Randy Wolf and Mark Prior rounding out the staff—which wouldn’t worry me if it was 2003, but both are coming off of injury, and extended non-throwing periods in 2007 (Prior saw no time last season and Wolf missed the second half). Granted Justin Germano did a passable job last season (7-10, 4.46 ERA) but unless Prior and Wolf can offer the Padres something in the way of production, I don’t know how much I trust a patchwork rotation for the second consecutive year.

The bullpen will see a lot of new faces this season, but perhaps some new roles too. It all depends on what happens with Trevor Hoffman.

I love Hoffy, but the fact is, he’s 40. Now you don’t get more than 500 career saves and eight 40 save seasons without being great, but on the other hand you don’t get there without being really old either.

I’m not pinning the fact that the Padres didn’t see October baseball last season on the fact that Hoffman blew a few key saves, and I hope he comes back and saves another 40 this year, but I’ve got to be realistic at the same time—he could very well implode.

Which is why Heath Bell is here. Last season, Bell supplanted Scott Linebrink (who was later traded for three pitching prospects) as the setup man for Hoffy, and he appears to be set to take over the closers role when Hoffman chooses to hang them up. Sure he was 2/6 in save opportunities last season, but he also struck out 102, gathered a 1.02 ERA, and totaled 34 holds last season.

Cla Meredith, who saw his ERA balloon up from the 1.07 he posted in 2006, will look to see if he can bring it back down from the 3.50 he finished with last season, which would lead to fewer blown leads for the Padres.

There’s also Joe Thatcher (part of the Linebrink deal) who posted a minuscule 1.29 ERA in his 22 games with San Diego, and Kevin Cameron will again be in the competition for a late-inning job, while Justin Hampson, who saw some success at the major league level will look to stick with the big club, rounding out a relief corps who could once again be one of the best in baseball—so long as the wheels don’t fall off.

(2008 Prediction: 81-81, fourth in NL West. However, if things go the Friars' way, they could challenge for first.)

(2008 Prediction: 81-81, third in NL West)

Colorado Rockies (2007 Results: 90-73, NL Wild Card Winner) : This may just sound like I’m still eating sour grapes following last year’s loss by the Padres, but I’m skeptical as to whether or not they can repeat that success.

Don’t get me wrong, there are some outstanding talents on this team that we’ll get to in a minute, but think about this: As of August 24th, the Rockies were 64-64. They then went 25-9, which admittedly is astounding. But before I become convinced this team can do it again, I want to see if it was more talent than momentum that got them that far.

The Rockies probably have one of the best offensive outfields in the NL with Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, and Willy Taveras, and all three of these guys bring different attributes that helped the Rockies win last season.

Taveras brings you the speed to run the bases effectively (and to lead-off) and cover ground effectively in the outfield. He also provides a bat that isn’t powerful, but should get you to within the .300 mark average-wise (was .320 in just under 100 games last season). Although he did have a tough time in the playoffs last year, Taveras had just come off of a quad injury, and if he’s fully healthy, the Rockies have a good young centerfielder on their hands.

Hawpe brings an excellent arm to the outfield, as well as a strong bat that can net you a .291 average and 29 home runs. Hawpe is coming off his first professional season in which he has knocked in over 100 runs, while missing only 10 games last season. Although he’s a little banged up in spring training, Hawpe should be ready to go for the season-opener, as he looks for a repeat of last year’s success.

This leaves us with Holliday: Do I really need to talk about him? Not only is he magic (he didn’t touch the plate, but he’s still safe! That’s amazing!), but he came in second in the NL in MVP voting, as well as finished tops in two of the categories required for the triple crown in the National League (average and RBI—he was fourth in home runs). Do you need more of an explanation? There’s no reason he can’t win the Triple Crown this year.

Sidenote: I’d like to clarify one thing: I’m not bitter about the “Holliday touching the plate thing”. Tim McClelland couldn’t see the play, and he made the call accordingly. What’s done is done. I mean, it’s not like I’ve never screwed a team when I’ve umpired.

Over on the infield, you’ve got Garrett Atkins at third that is another 25+ homer, 100+ RBI guy that can hit over .300. Although he’s got a strong arm, he could do more with his glove on defense, but it’s not like I’d turn him down if he got offered to my team.

Back at first is Todd Helton, who despite the rumors last off-season that he was headed to Boston, ended up playing them in the World Series. Weird eh? That and he’s got an awesome goatee. Aside from those things however, Helton has hit above .300 ever year of his career since 1998, while playing some seemingly spotless defense. Although his home run numbers have dropped (20, 15, 17 the past three seasons) it’s almost dismissible, as the Rockies have discovered other power sources on their roster. That’s not to overlook Helton’s importance however, as he is still an indispensable cog in this offense.

Behind the plate, the greatest name in the history of catchers—Yorvit Torrealba—returns. Despite not being the only catcher in the league with the last name Torrealba, he doesn’t let that stop him. Although he will never blow you away with the bat (.255, 8 homers, 47 RBI last year), he does bring a steady, consistent presence behind the plate, as well as a fairly adequate defensive catcher, with a fairly adequate backup in Chris Iannetta.

Up the middle, Troy Tulowitzki is another guy I don’t need to tell you anything about. He’s powerful (24 homers, 99 RBI), he can hit for average (.291), he can field with the best of them, he was nearly a Blue Jay, and he got cheated out of Rookie of the Year honors in 2007. The only reason Braun got it is because “Chicks dig the long ball”.

However, over at second there seems to be a glaring hole with the absence of Kaz Matsui—I don’t know if I’ll ever say that again. Jayson Nix is the club’s top prospect at second base, but he’ll be getting a bit of competition from Marcus Giles, fresh off a sub-par season with the Padres. At any point during the season though, you could also see Omar Quintanilla, Clint Barmes Jeff Baker, and Ian Stewart try their hand at second also.

Last year was basically the coming out party for Jeff Francis. The Canadian made his presence known in the World Series, threw over 200 innings for the first time in his career (215.1) and had his third straight season of 30+ starts and 100+ strikeouts. You may remember back with the Houston Astros that Roy Oswalt has never had a season below .500 in his career; well Jeff Francis is in the same boat. The one knock against him however is that he hasn’t had an ERA below 4.00 his entire career, but in the thin air of Colorado we could give him a bit of a break.

Aaron Cook, despite a shortened season last year, was able to post an 8-7 record, which after his 2006 season, is a little bit of a downer and a little bit of a bright spot (Cook threw 212.2 innings, started 32 games, and struck out 92 in 2006, but he also posted a 9-15 record with a 4.23 ERA), so if he’s able to have a healthy mix of both seasons—that’s the best news possible.

Rounding out the rotation will be Ubaldo Jiminez (who allowed fewer than three runs in three of his four wins last season), Jason Hirsh, and one of Franklin Morales (3-0 with three earned runs in September last season, and the only pitcher with an ERA below 4.00 amongst contending starters), Josh Towers (seriously, you don’t want this guy…especially in Colorado), Kip Wells and Mike Redmond.

Manny Corpas returns to hold down the ninth, as last season he posted a 2.08 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and was 19/22 in save opportunities (although after becoming the official closer, he only blew one save), while Brian Fuentes (3-5, 3.08 ERA) will be setting up for Corpas. Luis Vizcaino comes over from the AL, where last season he was a workhorse in 75.1 innings. Although he finished the year at 8-2, his ERA was slightly inflated at 4.30, but his most recent stint in the NL West was with Arizona where he posted a 3.58 ERA so you could see some replication there.

The rest of the bullpen will be filled out with some inexperienced guys like Taylor Buchholz, Zach McClellan, Josh Newman, Micah Bowie, and Ramon Ramirez, Ryan Speier who will try to keep his solid play since coming back from a shoulder injury going, and Jose Capellan who will have to prove that he is really a Major League pitcher. If that can happen, then the Rockies could see some of last year’s success repeat itself.

(2008 Prediction: 84-78, second in NL West)

Arizona Diamondbacks (2007 Results: 90-72, first in NL West): The Arizona Diamondbacks had a fairly quick turnaround in 2007 from their disappointing 2006 season. Fortunately, that success doesn’t seem to be a “one and out” kind of deal.

To start with, their outfield is a mix of speed, spirit, grit, and power. I mean, did anyone else know that Eric Byrnes stole 50 bases while posting 21 homers and 83 RBI last season tied together with a .286 average (his highest since a 10-game stint with Oakland in 2000)? That alone is a reason to get excited about 2008—a guy with the skills to pay the bills, as well as a guy who plays with a chip on his shoulder.

 But there’s also Chris Young who topped 30 homers in his first full season. He also stole 27 bases, making him a prime candidate for the 30/30 club in 2008, and maybe the 40/40 club in the future. Granted, his average looks a little too similar to Adam Dunn’s (.237 in 2007) but if those ahead of him in Arizona’s order can get on base this season, then replicating those 32 homers and 29 doubles from last season alone will help him bump up those 68 RBI.

Then there’s Justin Upton, who ruined the D’Backs playoff series against the Rockies last year with his interference-provoking slide in the NLCS. But I mean, the kid is 20, so he’s bound to make some mistakes (Granted this one was a doozy), but now that he’s starting in right field, the mistakes will have to be fewer. However, looking at his limited stats from last season, Upton looks to bring even more speed to this Arizona outfield, while it’s worth noting that he has hit over .300 at both the highest level of single A, and Double-A—all while skipping Triple-A on his way to the bigs, while Upton will use his speed to his advantage (like Byrnes and Young) in the outfield to cover some serious ground.

Up the middle, the D’Backs are set with former Blue Jay Orlando “O-Dog” Hudson at second base, and JD Drew’s little brother Stephen at shortstop. Hudson definitely seems to be more productive in the NL, as in his two years with the Diamondbacks he’s hit over .285 (.287 in 2006 and .294 in 2007), stole 10 bases for the first time in his career, and has proven to be an adequate power bat (25 homers in two years in Arizona), so there’s no reason to say that Hudson won’t again replicate his 10 homers and 60+ RBI, and he could even hit 15 homers/70+ RBI this season.

Stephen Drew meanwhile, will have to prove that he’s can produce more like his 2005 self than his 2006 performance. Between those two years Drew played more games (59 in ’06 and 150 in ’07) while seeing increases in homers and RBI, but he also saw drops in his batting average (.316 in 2006, .238 in 2007) and On-base percentage (.357 in ’06, .313 in ’07). Drew’s offensive struggles can probably be attributed to his inexperience, however it doesn’t appear that his defense should suffer, no matter how he does offensively this season.

On the corners, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson will fill out third and first base, while Chad Tracy continues to recover from blood clots and off-season knee surgery. In Reynolds first season he showed some prowess at the plate, posting 17 homers and 62 RBI and a .279 average. Although Reynolds will be under some pressure to repeat and improve upon those numbers, if Chad Tracy can return to form and hit anywhere from 18 to 24 homers with 75 to 80 RBI, then however the two are used at third base, the Diamondbacks should receive steady production this season while over at first, Conor Jackson will need to improve upon a career-best 15 home runs (that he’s hit each of the past two seasons) while working to keep his average in the .285-.290 range.

Behind the plate Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero will split time again as they’ll look to successfully combine their offensive numbers (Snyder: 13 hr/47RBI/.252 Avg. Montero: 10hr/37RBI/.224 Avg.) and replicate them from last season, and keep their efficiency at throwing out base stealers (39/126=31%) on the rise.

Rotation-wise, there’s no doubt that Brandon Webb is the ace: 42 straight scoreless innings this past season, two straight years of ERAs that have threatened dropping into the 2.00s (3.10, 3.01). The interesting thing about Webb though, is that each of the past three seasons, his win totals have increased by two (2005: 14, 2006: 16, 2007: 18) and with a supporting cast around him that should give him more run support, there’s no question that Webb could see 20 wins and an ERA under 3.00 by the end of this season.

Fellow righties Micah Owings and (newly acquired) Dan Haren will also be featured in ‘Zonas rotation this year. Owings produced solid results last season, however this spring he’s been bothered by a sore shoulder. If Owings can overcome that, then there’s no doubt he could crack ten wins this season, but if his shoulder continues to be a problem, it’ll be interesting to see how the Diamondbacks deal with it.

Haren meanwhile, is yet another product of an Oakland system that seems to produce quality pitching. Although Mark Mulder has fallen apart health-wise, Tim Hudson has proven to be flourishing in his switch to the NL, and if Haren can stay healthy, then there’s no doubt that he could produce a few more wins than last season and lower his ERA. (Is it ironic that Mulder was traded for Haren and now Haren has been dealt too? Probably. And just so you know, Haren had 19 NL starts before the trade, but his second time around will be better given the AL experience).

With the lefties however, it’s a different question. Doug Davis could go 14-4, or he could go 5-13 and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Although his yearly records have always been around .500 (his career record is 75-75) he’s never struck me as someone overly effective. Granted if he were to get 10 wins for Arizona that’d help immensely, but for some reason I see the wheels falling off in a major way for Davis this season.

The other lefty on the staff, veteran Randy Johnson, is another question mark—but because of his health. He’s 44, and if you’ve read my other previews, you know I place little-to-no faith in pitchers in-or-around their forties. I place even less faith in pitchers who have had two surgeries on the same injury, and word out of ‘Zona is that the Unit’s first start will be delayed a little bit. Whatever happens though, if he falters or flourishes, the Diamondbacks got by without him last year, and they can do the same this season if need be. I want him to get 16 wins so he can get to 300 for his career, but unless he were to blow the doors off of this season, I don’t see it happening (although if he were to get those 16 wins and all the other starters perform to expectation, then you may as well hand Arizona the division).

The bullpen will take on a slightly different look as Jose Velverde is gone from the back-end of the bullpen. Taking over for his league-leading 47 saves will be Brandon Lyon, while Tony Pena (no not THAT Tony Pena) and Chad Qualls move in to take over late-inning setup roles. Pena and Lyon were successful last season, and in adding Qualls, the save numbers might go down due to inexperience (25/40 in save opportunities), but you’ll probably see a bullpen that gels together down the stretch, rather than early in the season, especially with guys like Edgar Gonzalez, Juan Cruz, Doug Slaten, and a deep minor-league relief corps.

(2008 Prediction: 89-73, first in NL West)