NL East Preview: Atlanta Braves

Once the class of the National League East, the Atlanta Braves are looking to return to the top of the division. Last season during the Phillies playoff run, I was privileged to write some guest posts about the Phillies at The Launching Pad. 

This year I asked them to help me out.  Peter was kind enough to provide his thoughts on his Braves squad in preparation for 2009. Get ready to learn more about the Braves than you probably ever expected as Peter answers some questions.

Questions about the Atlanta Braves

The Braves finished at 72-90 last year for fourth place in the NL East. What will be the key to turning things around in 2009?

Well, the Braves weren't nearly as bad as their 2008 record would indicate. All in all, it's the final standings that matter in the end, but they played significantly below their Pythagorean expectation in 2008, so getting back into contention won't be as hard as a lot of people think.

Even with all the injuries, the Braves would've won 80 games if it weren't for their terrible fortunes in close games. They weren't THAT far out of contention, talent-wise at least. With that pretext, the key for the Braves turning it around in 2009 is their starting rotation.

With Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine all going down last year and Mike Hampton making only 13 starts, the rotation didn't see a lot of quality innings. Bringing in Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Kenshin Kawakami will certainly help the durability of the rotation. In addition, the Braves have much more depth behind Kawakami, Lowe, Vazquez, and Jurrjens this year than they had behind Glavine, Smoltz, Hudson, and Hampton last year.

With Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Tommy Hanson, and Tom Glavine all competing for the 5th spot, the improved depth will allow the team to sustain a key injury, but not four like last year. Frank Wren did a great job this off-season by turning the club's bane into its strength.


What is the Braves' strongest asset for 2009? The weakest?

The biggest asset for the Braves in 2009 is their pitching depth. I already mentioned the rotation depth, but the bullpen is looking solid as well with Peter Moylan, Rafael Soriano, and Mike Gonzalez all returning to their pre-surgery forms. Behind them, Blaine Boyer, Boone Logan, Buddy Carlyle, and some combination of Manny Acosta, Jeff Bennett, and Kris Medlen make up a really sneaky-good bullpen.

When the Mets signed Francisco Rodriguez and traded for J.J. Putz, all of the NL East's attention towards bullpens went their way. Coupled with the fact that the Phillies had a phenomenal bullpen last year, the Braves' bullpen gets very little attention and respect.

However, with three proven back-end-of-the-bullpen guys coming off surgery, it's like the Braves made a few significant signings, they're getting that sort of shot in the arm. The fact that the Braves don't play in a huge market will help them fly under the radar for a bit, something I think they'll benefit from.

There are also plenty of pieces that could serve in the bullpen from AAA that the Braves would be very comfortable with. Overall, the depth of the pitching staff is the biggest strength of the team.

The biggest weakness of the club is their inability to hit for power. We don't have a guy who can hit 35+ HR in the middle of our line-up and our overall slugging percentage as a team is pretty crappy.

A lot rides on Jeff Francoeur re-bounding in 2009. If we can get 25 HR out of him, McCann, and Chipper, with Kelly Johnson adding another 20, we'll probably be OK. But the ability to hit for power is clearly the club's biggest weakness. Replacing Mark Teixeira with Casey Kotchman tends to do that.


Can the Braves stay healthy this year?

Good question. I don't know. Can any team stay completely healthy? Not in this day and age.Chipper isn't going to play more than 130 games and we can't expect Glavine to throw more than 150 innings, but all signs point towards our pitching staff being significantly more durable than last season's.

The question is can we stay away from the broken bones and Tommy John surgeries. I certainly hope so. Predicting injuries is neither an art or a science, it's more of a dart game. You can't say with any bit of certainty that the Braves will be able to stay healthy or that they won't be able to stay healthy. It's just something you hope happens.

With the changes made to the starting rotation, are you ready to say that the Braves have the starting pitching that can lead the team to the playoffs?

Yes. I believe the Braves have a playoff caliber pitching staff. Without question.

Bringing in Vazquez was huge. He's been playing in a hitter's park with a bad defense in the AL where he has to face a DH. He's switching to the NL, a pitcher's park, with a very talented defense behind him. Not to mention he's away from Ozzie Guillen and playing for Bobby Cox.

Overall, he's primed for a very, very successful 2009 and much improvement from 2008. I wouldn't be surprised if he was in the conversation for the Cy Young at the end of the season. (Of course he could pull his usual trick, great K/BB rates and a crap ERA).

Lowe will also benefit from Atlanta's very talented infield defense. I'm not nearly as excited about him as I am Vazquez, but he represents a significant piece of the rotation. Also, he's got a little bit of post-season experience (see 2004).

Kawakami is a question mark, but he should be a very adequate 4 starter. Jurrjens is having a great spring as of late and I'm really excited to see what he can do in 2009. With the depth of the 5th spot, Tim Hudson coming back in late August or September, and Tommy Hanson waiting in the wings, we should have all the pitching necessary to make a playoff push.


Can Chipper Jones repeat his average from 2008?

Hmm. Can he? Yes. Will he? No. I expect him to hit around .330 in 2009. Not .364, but certainly top five in the league. Chipper Jones is one of the best contact hitters in the game and can draw walks at will. He'll contribute to any offense. He's a huge part of ours. The main question is how many games will he be able to play, not how productive he will be when he's on the field.


What player(s) may be under the radar right now that baseball fans should be watching?

Another good question. The obvious answer is Tommy Hanson, a starting pitcher rated Baseball America's No. 4 prospect. He'll probably start the year at AAA but he'll be in the Braves' rotation at some point in 2009.

Kenshin Kawakami, a Japanese import, figures to be a big part of the team as well. Martin Prado has been hitting very, very well and has added a lot of pop this off-season. He should be one of the best back-ups in the league if he isn't traded.

Look for Greg Norton to lead the league, or come close to leading it, in pinch-hits this season. Kotchman, Johnson, and Escobar could all have huge years as well, but they're fairly well known. Jordan Schafer, if he wins the CF job, will also make a lot of noise.


Tell us why the Braves will make the playoffs.

The Braves will make the playoffs because they have all of the necessary pieces and a winning attitude, something that they've lacked in the past. With Smoltz gone, Chipper has emerged as the biggest leader in the clubhouse, and he's made it clear that the Braves will play hard this year, and the lackadaisical attitudes of the past won't be tolerated.

I think establishing the winning attitude in spring training is important for the club. They're currently leading the spring training standings, which can't hurt, though it doesn't mean much.


Tell us why the Braves will not make the playoffs.

There's a few things I believe are certain about the NL East.

1. The wild card team will come from the NL East
2. There's a three-way race for the top two spots between the Mets, Phillies, and Braves
3. Whoever sustains the most injuries of those three will not be playing in October.

I think that if the Braves don't make the playoffs it'll be because they sustained more injuries than the Mets or Phillies. The projection systems all have the Braves, Mets, and Phillies right in the same conversation.

If we wake up tomorrow and Chipper's broken his leg, Vazquez needs Tommy John, and Peter Moylan tore another ligament, we're immediately out of the conversation. The same could be said about a homologous trio for the Mets or Phillies.

What I like about the Braves' chances is they have depth such that I don't think there's an irreplaceable piece on the club (apart from Chipper's 110 games). Whereas, if the Mets lost Johan Santana, they'd immediately be in panic mode, and if the Phillies lost Cole Hamels their playoff hopes are significantly diminished.

If every team stays completely healthy (an impossible scenario), we'd be kept out of the playoffs due to a lack of run-production from our outfield, though.


What is the biggest question mark for the Braves entering 2009?

This is the easiest question in the survey. The answer is offensive production from the outfield. Will Francoeur rebound? Who is even playing center field? Can that guy hit? Will Garret Anderson learn to draw a walk or two? Can Matt Diaz continue to murder left-handed pitching?

These are all legitimate concerns of mine and the organization. Unless the answer to all of those is “yes”, expect the Braves outfield to be deficient in offensive production. However, the organization thinks we've got the pitching to stay in it until the end, regardless of how pathetic our outfield may perform.

Personally, I'd like to see us swap one of our AAA pitchers for one of the Washington National's logjam of corner outfield/1B pieces, preferably Josh Willingham. That'd certainly put me at ease.

Questions about the NL East

Please give me your prediction for the final standings in the NL East.

I hate predicting standings. There's just too much uncertainty in regards to injuries and luck for me to make any sort of scientific prediction. Right now, on paper, the Mets have the best team, the Phillies are close behind the Mets (~3 games), and the Braves are close behind the Phillies (~1 game). Here's my predicted final NL East standings:

1. Mets 91-71
2. Phillies 91-71
3. Braves 91-71
4. Nationals 72-90
5. Marlins 69-93

What one player in the NL East would you love to insert into your every day lineup (pitchers excluded)?

Given the Braves need for a power-hitting outfielder, I'd have to say Adam Dunn of the Washington Nationals. He'd represent the biggest upgrade over what we've got on the roster. David Wright, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Jimmy Rollins, and Hanley Ramirez are all huge studs, but they play positions at which we don't have as much of a glaring need. If you had asked me this question last year, I'd have said Pat Burrell.

Who is the MVP within the NL East?

It depends on who wins the division. If the Braves win it I'd say either Javier Vazquez or Chipper Jones. If the Phillies win it, Chase Utley or Cole Hamels. If the Mets win it it'd be Johan Santana or David Wright. And let's not forget the closers. Mike Gonzalez, Brad Lidge, and Francisco Rodriguez could also be in that conversation.


World Series prediction?

I've got the Red Sox playing the Diamondbacks and winning in five games, though I hate making World Series predictions this early in the season. It's about getting hot at the right time. Plus, after six months of baseball, I don't know who is going to be healthy and who will be injured. I wouldn't put any stock in my predictions, they're pretty meaningless.

As Bill Parcells said: “That's why we play the games.”

Good stuff! Thanks to Peter of The Launching Pad for some good information regarding the Braves.

Tomorrow we take a look at the Florida Marlins and whether or not they will have what it takes to make some noise in the NL East in 2009.