2009 MLB Predictions: AL West

Time for the third installment of my predictions that will probably be completely wrong as we go to the AL West. 

I'm deciding to go with an upset in this one. Keep in mind on paper it doesn't make sense. I'm going with my gut on this one though, and my gut says...

Division Winner

Texas Rangers

Look, they may be a year away, but I think they're here now.

They finished last year with a 79-83 record. Nearly .500. Without any pitching whatsoever. Nor any consistency.

In fact, they had five different stretches of four-game losing streaks or more last year. If they can learn to minimize those skids they can get to 90 wins.

Of course, that's a result of a team that relies on offense. When your hitting goes cold and you have no pitching to help you get through that rough patch, it leads to those long losing streaks.

Still, their offense is going to be a machine in that home run friendly ballpark. Chris Davis, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, David Murphy, Hank Blalock. Guys who all contributed last year to this team scoring the most runs in the majors with 901 runs.

To give you some perspective on that, the next most runs scored last year was 855 by the Cubs, 46 runs shy by the team who posted the best record in baseball.  

The Rangers have prospects with potential as well. 

Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Nelson Cruz (Who's not really a prospect at 29, but still has plenty of potential), who will just make this team better if they live up to the hype. 

Not only that, their farm system is so stacked that Taylor Teagarden, a hot catching prospect, can fill in if Saltalamacchia falters. Justin Smoak can come up if Davis struggles.

I don't believe either of those things will happen, but if so, this team has so much talent coming up the pipe, it's hard to imagine they won't score another 900 runs next year. 

But as we all know with the Rangers, offense is never really the concern—pitching is.

Let's start with the positives. The Rangers' GM has said the bullpen is his biggest concern, but I disagree. Frank Francisco looks like he is finally ready to take over as closer and hold the job. Behind him is CJ Wilson (who was the closer for a long portion of last year) in the set-up role.

Behind them are former closers who may do better in middle-inning roles with Eddie Guardado and Derrick Turnbow.

Toss in that the Rangers are putting a lot of guys who can go longer innings in their 'pen should their starting pitching go short in a game, and I think they should be fine. 

But the starting pitching. That's the biggest problem. Here's why I think they can overcome it.

Millwood and Padilla are not the answer now. But they don't need to be.

What the Rangers need from them are 4.00 ERAs. Quality starts. That's it. Keep the offense in the ballgame, hand the game over to the 'pen, and they can win it.

The Rangers also have several pitching prospects waiting in the wings. Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Thomas Diamond, Omar Poveda, Tommy Hunter.  Neftali may be too young to help this year, but even so, they have other guys who are aged 22-24 who if they tear it up in AAA, they can step in and help. 

And let's say their prospects can't help this year. They have the No. 1 farm system in all of baseball for 2009. That's not just my opinion, that's Baseball America's opinion as well.

That means they can trade away some talent if they're in it at midseason and need a frontline starter to make that push. I mean they already have Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden at catcher. They have Chris Davis at first.

Why not trade away Justin Smoak and Max Ramirez if Saltalamacchia and Davis are producing. Get a frontline starter in exchange. 

Jake Peavy has said he's not interested in going to the Rangers, but would his tune change if the Rangers are leading or are close to the division lead in the AL West? 

I think it's possible, and if not, they could pull away a Roy Oswalt or Justin Verlander if their respective teams are struggling. 

And it wouldn't need to be a rent-a-player either as Padilla and Millwood's contracts are up this year as is Hank Blalock's. They're poised for success, and I think they are this year's Tampa Bay Rays.

In second place...

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

It's hard to not argue for this team to win the division. They're solid all around, I just have a feeling about the Rangers. 

The Angels are amazingly run by the front office. I mean a squad that can produce talented prospects one after the other while also doing the Yankee method of signing star players when necessary to make it a great balance of veteran stars and young talent is something to be marveled at. 

However, I just feel that they lost so much this off-season that can't be replaced. And the Rangers are going to keep pace with them, which will lead to someone making a big trade, and I think the Rangers will be the one to pull the trigger and take the division.

But more so, the Angels lost Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, and Jon Garland. Add the fact that Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana will miss the first month of the season, and that could give the Rangers a head-start on the division crown. 

Escobar also is a major risk for relapse as he is coming back three months earlier than projected from shoulder surgery because he "Feels great."  That seems like wishful thinking to me that can only lead to long-term problems.

John Lackey and Ervin Santana are a great No. 1 and No. 2, and Nick Adenhart could be a big help if he figures out how to pitch in the big leagues this year.

Joe Saunders had a good year last year, but he has a lot of balls put in play against him and he can't strike batters out.  Most scouts are saying he will come back down to Earth in 2009. 

Still, the Angels have the best rotation in the West. So what's the problem?

Their bullpen.

K-Rod's in New York, which made the Angels get Brian Fuentes. Not really an upgrade.

He's never been able to hold on to the closer job against National League teams. What will happen against the much stronger AL?

And let's say Fuentes gets as many save opportunities as K-Rod did last year. Anyone think he's going to break the save record given the opportunity. Me neither.

Jose Arredondo will be the closer before year's end, and this team is thin in the bullpen with Scot Shields being the only other reliable option.

Darren Oliver had a good year last year, but I don't think he will have a repeat, and seeing as how he's the only other lefty in the 'pen besides Fuentes, it will make things rough for this squad.

Offensively they're solid, but there are so many question marks that I think they will be inconsistent.

An outfield with an average age of 34 between Torii Hunter, Vlad Guerrerro and Bobby Abreu. Defensively amazing. Offensively, it's good, but not what it used to be. And how much will those numbers dip this year since they've been trending downwards for all three of those players, especially Bobby Abreu.

Since he hit 41 homers in the 2005 Derby, he's hit 51 total homers over the next three seasons.

He still walks a lot however and his contribution to this team will not be providing power, but helping create big innings by getting on-base and making pitchers waste pitches.

Their infield outside of Chone Figgins is all unproven guys who haven't yet put a solid season together.  Not Mike Napoli or Howie Kendrick or Erick Aybar or the rookie Kendry Morales.  

Still, it wouldn't be shocking to see them win another 95 games. I think they're closer to 85-90, which may be just the breathing room the Rangers need to sneak into a division title.

In third place...

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners were not nearly as bad as they played last year. This year they could be a .500 team with the potential to do more. 

Their outfield is the best defensive squad you can get with Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro Suzuki.

I think the signing of Ken Griffey Jr. may actually hamper this team.

As sentimental as it is to have Junior back in town, Wladimir Balentin is a stud prospect who should probably be the one DH'ing to make up for the lack of offense they'll receive from those defensive specialists in Center and Left.

This situation could get messy if Griffey has to be benched for the betterment of the team. 

The infield is ok. Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt are solid middle infielders who can hit, and Adrian Beltre is Mr. Consistency. Expect a .270 batting average, 25 homers, and 80 RBI. 

Kenji Johjima is the starting catcher for now, but with the signing of Griffey, power hitting prospect Jeff Clement will have to get his starts somewhere. 

It will either be at first base over Russel Branyan, but more likely at catcher over Johjima. Clement will start in Triple-A but if they put him and Balentin in the lineup, this team will finally have the much needed pop they were missing last year.

Their starting pitching should also rebound considering Erik Bedard is finally healthy.

Felix Hernandez needs to finally put together the season everyone's been expecting from him. If he and Bedard can be what was expected of them last year, that could lead to this team winning more than the Angels or the Rangers.

Washburn is solid, Silva is not, and Morrow is a fire-baller who could make this team something dangerous.  

Their bullpen is also pretty strong with Miguel Batista and Mark Lowe closing out the eighth and ninth respectively, but they're missing a strong lefty specialist which can hurt in late-inning matchups.

Cesar Jimenez could be that guy though, so it's yet to be seen. 

The only reason I don't have them winning the division is because of last year. Sixty-one wins in a season is pretty atrocious, so there must be something more wrong with this team than meets the eye. 

Clearly they're still missing power, but they should've been better last year, and I think they will be better this year. 

Bringing up the rear...

Oakland Athletics

There's just too much unproven, oft-injured youth to believe these guys can make a run.

It's true they have a stacked farm system, but on their major league roster, who can you actually rely on?

Look at the starting rotation. Outside of Eveland, there doesn't seem to be anything without a question mark next to it. 

Duchscherer has a recurring hip injury that doesn't seem to be going away. Plus his high proportion of balls put in play has most scouts saying his ERA could rise a full run to 3.5.

Sean Gallagher and Dallas Braden are unproven pitchers who eventually will be good, but not this year.

Brett Anderson (Projected to be the No. 5 starter) has never pitched above class AA ball. Let's say these guys struggle, who do you call up? Another unproven prospect who's never pitched 150 innings?

There's no depth here if anything goes wrong.

Same goes for the offense. Outside of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, there is nothing even remotely resembling a big league offense.

Ryan Sweeney should be good, but the idea of such little run support is not comforting. Especially considering that it provides so little margin for error for young pitchers still figuring out the game.  

The only positive about this team is the bullpen, which looks very strong.

Joey Devine seems to have recovered from his early struggles with the Braves and is living up to the hype he once had. Ziegler is a Chad Bradford type who can pitch multiple innings and get a lot of double plays to get out of big jams.

Toss in Santiago Casilla and Russ Springer who are solid middle-relief options and if they do get a lead, they can close it out. 

All in all, this division is anyone's division. I'm taking a huge risk and saying the Rangers offense, young pitching, and a big mid-season trade will push them into the post-season. 

The Angels and Mariners will also make charges at the division. 

Unfortunately, I think Oakland will take the brunt of the losses in this division with these three teams vying for first place.

Next up will be the NL East. Stay tuned.