The Year that Will Be: Strat-o-Matic Predicts the 2008 MLB Season, Part I (April-June)

Strat-o-matic Baseball is a wonderful game.  It is the most accurate baseball replay game on the planet.  The essential principle of the game is that after every season, every player has a set of statistics.  Therefore, they have a percentage chance of doing something (for example, once out of every twenty at-bats, the player hits a home run).  These percentages are then assigned on cards with corresponding dice rolls.  Given rolling dice to a certain number has a certain percent chance, these chances are matched up with the real stats on the cards to provide a card and dice game capable of deadly accuracy when replaying a season (error is well under 1 standard deviation).  For example, if in 600 at-bats, Joe Carter will hit .260, with 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s, if you give him 600 at-bats in Strat-o-matic, his final stats will be very close to the real ones.

What was done with this simulation was that the teams were put together with the proper 2008 roster, in a season with the 2008 schedule to be used during the regular season.  The players’ cards that were used were chosen based on their “average” year over the last 5 years.  This way, the likely production of each team could be gauged.  Teams with serious injuries already known were affected, and those players were held out.  The teams were programmed to use players a realistic amount (what they will likely get this season), and then the games were played.

Below are the results of Strat-o-matic Baseball’s prediction for the 2008 season.  This is a very accurate way of gauging how teams will do during the season, given the amazing accuracy of Strat-o-matic to reproduce statistics.

As a note, this is just another method of predicting what will happen in the season.  These are not necessarily right, and I don’t presume that this is anything more than a fun little prediction. Nonetheless, it takes opinion and personal bias mostly out of the equation, and in a sense, the teams just play the games!

STRAT-O-MATIC BASEBALL 2008 PREVIEW

APRIL

The Mets, Tigers and Dodgers all came out flying in April.  The Tigers (18-10) were tops in the Majors in pitching, and number 5 in hitting.  The trade for Johan Santana looked to be the work of a genius, as his 5 wins and 1.50 ERA in the month helped pace the Mets (19-9) to a 2.5 game division lead over the Braves (17-12).  The Joe Torre era in L.A. began with a bang as the Dodgers (20-6) stormed out to a 5.5 game division lead over the NL Champion Colorado Rockies (15-14).  The Dodgers surprised many despite ace Brad Penny going 3-3 with an 8.05 ERA.  The defending World Champion Red Sox (17-12) played solid baseball, and were trailed hotly by the upstart Tampa Bay Rays (16-12) and the Toronto Blue Jays (16-12).  The NL Central seemed to try to break away from its reputation as the weakest division in baseball as Milwaukee and the Cubs each put forth very solid April’s to tie for the division lead at 17-10.

The Yankees under new manager Joe Girardi struggled in April to finish just one measly game above .500.  The vaunted Yankees offence grossly underachieved, hitting just .261, 7th in the AL.  The pitching staff was a disaster, finishing April with a 5.41 ERA (only Minnesota and Baltimore were worse in the AL). 

Seattle lead the Majors in hitting (.293), but were in last in the AL West.  The Erik Bedard trade looked like a brilliant move as he compiled a 1.94 ERA in 4 starts, but Felix Hernandez (5.01 ERA in 6 starts), Carlos Silva (6.17 ERA in 6 starts), and Jarrod Washburn (8.56 ERA in 5 starts) were dreadful and undermined Seattle’s efforts to be at the top of the division.  

The reigning AL Central Champion Cleveland Indians struggled to a 13-15 record out of the gate despite the No.2-ranked pitching staff in the AL.  The powerful Indians offence remained in hibernation after the winter and hit .258 for the month.  Despite Sabathia (2.24 ERA) and Carmona (1.82 ERA) pitching brilliantly, the Cleveland bats were nowhere to be found.  Hafner (.257), Sizemore (.260), Martinez (.267), and Garko (.238) struggled mightily at the plate and the Indians were unable to support their masterful pitching staff. 

The Philadelphia Phillies (11-17), who stunned the world by claiming the NL East from the Mets on the final day of the season last year, stumbled out of the gate finishing the month 6 games below .500 and 8 games back of the Mets.  The pitching staff was ice cold and near the bottom of the league in ERA.  The hitting, although still decent, was not strong enough to steal games that their pitching staff kept giving away.

MAY

May served nothing more than to further tighten the race for the top of the AL East.  The Boston Red Sox (34-24) continued to lead the way with a balanced attack (#4 hitting, #5 pitching). 

The Toronto Blue Jays (33-25) were hot on their tails despite not hitting as well as hoped.  Their #4 ranked pitching staff was lead by AJ Burnett (4-4, 2.86 ERA) and Roy Hallday (5-5, 3.96 ERA). 

The Tampa Bay Rays (31-26) continued to play good ball and were still ahead of the Yankees at the close of the second month.  The Rays were getting solid pitching lead by Scott Kazmir (7-3, 2.61 ERA) and a very strong offence.

The New York Yankees continued to struggle as Joe Girardi juggled various line-up combinations and tried to rally his pitchers to no avail.  The Yankees team ERA (5.19) was the 2nd worst in the AL (Baltimore was at the bottom), and their hitting remained in the bottom half of the AL at .262.

The Cleveland Indians (30-26) seemed to have awakened from their slumber playing very good ball in the month of May to move within 5 games of the front-running Detroit Tigers (35-21).  The Indians continued to get top-notch pitching (3.42 team ERA), and the hitting finally came to life as Hafner (.286, 12 HR), Sizemore (.290, 11 HR) started to hit better, and Casey Blake was hitting a very solid .307. 

The Tigers were not to be outdone, as their pitching staff was right behind the Indians for the AL lead (3.45 team ERA).  Dontrelle Willis has struggled in his transition to the AL (4.93 ERA), but still was 6-3.  Miguel Cabrera (.345, 15 HR), Gary Sheffield (.313, 12 HR), and Placido Polanco (.343) lead the number 1 offence (.287) in the American League.

The Los Angeles Angels (34-22) continue to lead the slumping AL West.  Despite Erik Bedard leading the Majors in ERA (2.07) and the number 2 ranked offence (.284), the Mariners (27-29) were still in last place in the West.  The pitching staff continued to struggle with Batista (8.48 ERA) and Silva (6.17 ERA) pulling the team down and possibly out of contention if it keeps up.  The Angels (34-22) are quietly putting together a very strong season.  The number 3 offence and pitching staff has them comfortably atop the West and unless the Mariners wake up soon, this division race could end up being rather anti-climactic.

The New York Mets (31-24) struggled slightly in May but still held a 2 game division lead over Atlanta (30-27).  Johan Santana (9-0, 2.20 ERA, 100 K’s in 11 starts) is tearing up the NL, and without him, this team could find itself much closer to .500.  Despite Tom Glavine’s return to Atlanta (3-7, 8.58 ERA) being disastrous, the team finds itself within striking distance of the division lead thanks to excellent hitting.  Jeff Francoeur, Chipper Jones, Kelly Johnson are all hitting over .300 to help keep the Braves in the hunt. 

The Phillies (26-31) continue to be unable to get it going.  Owning the 3rd worst ERA in the NL, the Phillies pitching could throw away a season in which the Mets and Braves have struggled to take control in the East.  The hitting has been solid, but with no superstar numbers, the Phillies could end up passing up a golden opportunity to repeat as NL East champions. 

The Chicago Cubs (35-21) remain in a tight race with the Milwaukee Brewers (36-20) in the NL Central.  The Cubs have the number 1 ranked offence (.289) in the NL and the number 2 ranked pitching staff (3.83 ERA).  The Cubs are doing everything right, with great hitting, excellent starting pitching, and top notch bullpen work. 

The Brewers are leading the division because of masterful work in one-run games.  Eric Gagne is tied for the league lead in saves, and the Brewers are 11-4 in one-run games, compared to the Cubs 9-7.  If the Brewers were closer to .500 in those games, the Cubs would be ahead of the division by a game or two.  The Brewers deserve some serious credit for continuing to put out wins, despite the offence and pitching staff ranking in the middle of the pack.  The rest of the division sits well back, however they look to be shedding the “weakest division” label, as even the last place Pittsburgh Pirates (27-29) are only 2 games below .500.

Joe Torre’s Dodgers (36-19) continue to tear up the NL West.  They continued to build on their April start and sit 6 games ahead of the Colorado Rockies.  Brad Penny has recovered from his dismal April and now sits at a respectable 8-3, 4.85 ERA.  Hideki Kuroda looks to be making a smooth transition from Japan, as he’s 5-5, 3.55 ERA.  The young guns continue to impress as Ethier (.297), Kemp (.326) and Loney (.336) are hitting the ball at will, combined with a resurgent Andruw Jones (.240, 13 HR) and a solid Jeff Kent (.284, 10 HR), the Dodgers are playing consistent, steady baseball.  

The Rockies are playing good ball, with solid pitching despite Ubaldo Jimenez struggling in his sophomore season (1-7, 6.47 ERA).  Matt Holliday (.351, 17 HR) continues to put up MVP calibre numbers, and Todd Helton is tearing it up with a .345 average. 

The NL West Champion Diamondbacks seem to have forgotten how to pitch, despite getting solid hitting (ranked 8^th in the NL).  Brandon Webb is struggling (7-6, 4.30 ERA), Dan Haren has been unable to bring his stellar pitching from Oakland with him to the desert, and Doug Davis has not pitched up to expectations (1-7, 5.22 ERA).  Brandon Lyon has been an unmitigated failure out of the bullpen (2-5, 6.65 ERA in 23 IP). 

For a team that has limited batting prowess, the starting pitching not being up to par, and having no true stopper in the bullpen is costing this team dearly, as they sit in last place.