NL Central Projected Standings: Will the Chicago Cubs Break the Curse?

Note: All team projections were found using the FEINs projections. An explanation behind projected wins, losses, and other stats can be found here.

1. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs' 97 wins last year were a National League high and the Cubs' most since 1945. But the so-called curse still stands, after yet another playoff defeat. Last year was supposed to be the year.

And this year is supposed to be the year, too. Will it?

FEIN's projected 93 wins for the Cubs is five more than any other NL team and the third-highest in the majors. It appears that the Cubs are the favorites by far in the NL—appears is the keyword.

The Cubs have lost six of their last seven postseason series and 22 of their last 31 postseason games, and all preconceptions about the Cubs' chances are thrown out the window in October.

Chicago's offense is lead by five guys projected to have an OPS over .830: Milton Bradley (.927), Aramis Ramirez (.883), Alfonso Soriano (.867), Derrek Lee (.857), and Geovany Soto (.833).

In his first season with 500 PA since 2004, Bradley put up an OPS of .999, fourth-highest in the league, and an AVG of .321, sixth-highest in the league. His projected .927 is a significant drop, but would still be good for sixth in the league.

FEIN projects 18 home runs, but just 56 RBI and 57 runs, in 400 PA. That makes him ranked No. 238 overall and not worth a slot in standard 12-team leagues.

Second in OPS on the Cubs is third baseman Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez has had at least 26 home runs in each of the past six years, over 100 RBI in five of the past six years, and a .898 OPS or higher in the past five years. His projected 29 home runs, 102 RBI, and 80 runs makes him worth a third-round pick, No. 29 overall.

But Ramirez isn't the best fantasy pick on the Cubs. Outfielder Alfonso Soriano has seen his stats go down since he joined the Cubs, but an average of 31 homers, 87 runs, and 19 steals isn't bad. FEIN projects 33 homers, 86 runs, and 21 steals, along with a decent .277 AVG. He's ranked two spots ahead of Ramirez at No. 27 overall.

The Cubs have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, too. Their rotation is headed by Carlos Zambrano (projected ERA of 3.91), Ryan Dempster (3.65), and Rich Harden (3.00).

Together, they are forecasted to have a 3.56 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 477 innings. And their fourth starter, Ted Lilly, isn't too bad either: He's projected to have a 4.12 ERA in 185 innings.

Incredibly, Carlos Marmol is the best pitcher on the Cubs, at least according to fantasy value. His 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, plus 90 strikeouts and 34 saves, in 82 innings would make him No. 3 reliever and No. 61 overall.

Chicago has all the pieces it needs to overcome their 101 years of losing and compete for the World Series title.

Then again, it's the Cubs.

2. St. Louis Cardinals

Just two-and-a-half years removed from a World Series win, the Cardinals are forecasted to have the ninth-best record in the NL—yet their 82 wins would be just one less than the 83 wins accumulated in their 2006 season.

The leader of that World Series team was Albert Pujols, who, in 2006, hit 49 home runs with a .331 AVG and 137 RBI. FEIN projects 36 homers, over 100 runs and RBI, a .326 AVG, and a 1.025 OPS in 2009.

It's no shock that he's the best player in baseball. According to Fangraphs, his production has been worth over $190 million since 2002, the highest in the league—and he's only been paid $60 million in that time. Pujols has also been worth the most money in the past year, the past two years, and the past three years.

Pujols isn't the only slugger on the Cardinals. Ryan Ludwick hit 37 bombs last year with a .966 OPS. He's projected to hit just 22, but considering that's just in 427 PA, he'd hit 32 in the 617 PA he had last year, as well as just under 100 RBI and a .875 OPS.

Third baseman Troy Glaus, in his first year as a Cardinal, hit 27 homers and had 99 RBI and a .856 OPS. His .270 AVG last year was the second-highest of his career. He's projected to have 27 home runs once again, as well as 86 RBI, 70 runs, a .264 AVG, and a .854 OPS.

Since 2005, Glaus' OPS has been anywhere from .839 to .885, and his OPS hasn't been below .800 this decade, so you know you can trust him. FEIN ranks him No. 7 among third basemen.

Adam Wainwright has had a combined 3.50 ERA in 324 innings the past two years as a starter, plus a 3.12 ERA in 75 innings as a reliever in 2006. FEIN's projection gives Wainwright a 3.67 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 145 innings, and if he can stay healthy, he'd be a very good No. 2 pitcher in fantasy leagues.

Currently fourth in the Cardinals' rotation is the former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter. Carpenter has pitched just 21 innings in the last two years due to forearm and shoulder injuries. He had a 3.09 ERA the year before his first injury, which was in 2006.

But because FEIN's pitcher projections look at only the last three years of stats, all that is seen is a 3.09 ERA and then two years with under 25 innings pitched. Carpenter is projected to have a 3.86 ERA in just 76 innings, but he is a nice, low-risk, high-reward pick late in your draft.

2009 looks to be to first year in some time that the Cardinals won't be fighting for the playoffs come late September. Of course, that's what the experts said last year, too, when the prognostication for St. Louis was under 80 wins.

They won 86.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

For the first time since 1982, the Brewers advanced to the postseason, though their stint was cut short by the eventual World Series champions.

Midway through the season, they acquired CC Sabathia from the Indians, but contrary to public belief, he wasn't so much of a help as previously thought: Milwaukee was 49-40 when Sabathia made his first start as a Brewer, and from then on Milwaukee went 41-32. The upgrade was just a difference of one game in those 73 games.

Sure, they would've been tied with the Mets for the Wild Card had they not gotten Sabathia, but in retrospect, would you rather have a playoff appearance and early exit with your top prospect (Matt LaPorta)—as well as the player you traded for in the first place—off of your team, or a one-game playoff for the postseason with your future intact?

Of course, there's more to the Brewers' future than LaPorta. Outfielder Ryan Braun had 37 homers, 14 steals, 92 runs, and 106 RBI last year (after a Rookie of the Year award the year before). His projection gives him a .901 OPS, a .299 AVG, 32 home runs, 13 steals, 92 runs, and 99 RBI in 589 PA.

If there's one flaw in Braun's game, it has to be his batting eye—Braun is projected to have only 37 walks in 2009. He's ranked No. 9 overall and No. 2 among outfielders, behind only Grady Sizemore.

Prince Fielder's hit 84 home runs the last two years, and admittedly his forecast his somewhat pessimistic. He's projected to hit just 30 homers and 89 RBI, but his low projected playing time (580 PA) may lead to his low counting stats; in 694 PA—his total last year—his projected stats become 36 homers, 106 RBI, and 95 runs, with a .284 AVG.

In comparison, Mark Teixeira's ranked No. 18 overall, and he's projected to hit 31 homers, 112 RBI, and 93 runs, with a .292 AVG. More or less, Fielder's around Teixeira's area in a full season of play, yet Fielder's currently going a round after Teixeira in ESPN.com and Yahoo! drafts.

The Brewers' rotation may be one of the worst in the league. The top four starters projected to pitch the most innings (Braden Looper, David Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Manny Parra) all have a projected ERA over 4.42, with the average being 4.56.

On their actual depth chart, though, their No. 1 pitcher is Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo only had four starts last year after an ACL injury that forced him to miss most of the year.

Still, he had a 1.88 ERA, a year after a 3.67 ERA in 110 innings. Gallardo is projected to have a 3.82 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in just 77 innings this year, but the latter number should rise.

Milwaukee hopes new manager Ken Macha will get the Brewers back to the playoffs again. The Brewers have returning all of their key offensive pieces—they're forecasted to score the same number of runs as last year.

But even the signing of Trevor Hoffman can't make up for the departures of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, as Milwaukee's projected runs allowed per game is more than half a run higher than last year's 4.25.

4. Cincinnati Reds

Almost three-fourths of the season past them, the Reds were looking at a 52-66 record and their eighth below-.500 season in as many years. With outfielder Adam Dunn looking to cash in on free agency at the end of the year, the Reds decided to trade Dunn to Arizona in exchange for Micah Owings and two minor leaguers.

In the end, the trade turned out to be great for Cincinnati. They went 22-21 after the trade and allowed Chris Dickerson to show his talent in the majors. In his 122 PA, Dickerson had six homers, 20 runs, and 15 RBI, as well as a .304 AVG and a 1.021 OPS.

His projection calls for a .288 AVG and .877 OPS, with slightly lower counting stats than last year. However, Dickerson had an OPS under .800 in two of three years in the minors and 34 home runs in his minor league career—in over 1400 PA.

Second baseman Brandon Phillips regressed from 2007, lowering his 30-30 season to just 20-20 in 2008, plus a decrease in runs, RBI, AVG, and OPS. FEIN projects 22 homers, 25 steals, 81 runs, 79 RBI, a .277 AVG, and a .782 OPS.

Phillips is one of only six players projected to have more than 20 home runs and 20 steals. Those numbers make him the No. 3 second baseman and No. 38 overall.

The best pure hitter on the Reds is Joey Votto. Votto hit 24 home runs last year with a .874 OPS and a .297 AVG. Votto is projected to have a .880 OPS and a .302 AVG and hit 16 home runs in 403 PA. In a full season of play (600 PA), Votto would be projected to have 71 runs scored, 24 homers, 86 RBI, and have six stolen bases.

The most comparable player is Adrian Gonzalez, who's projected to have a .282 AVG, 79 runs, 25 home runs, 85 RBI, and no steals. Votto's per-600 stats are much better than Gonzalez's, who's ranked No. 9 among first basemen.

One of the main reasons for Cincinnati's poor pitching last year was Aaron Harang, who, after three years of sub-3.85 ERAs, went 6-17 with a 4.78 ERA in 184 innings. FEIN thinks Harang will bounce back, with a projected 4.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 158 strikeouts in 180 innings.

No. 2 in the Reds rotation is 25-year-old Edinson Volquez. Volquez, in his first full year in the majors, pitched 196 innings and had 206 strikeouts and a 3.21 ERA. His projected 3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 163 strikeouts in 165 innings make him the No. 29 starting pitcher.

The Reds have a great young core, and though Votto and Co. won't do so well this year, they'll be at the top of the NL Central standings in the next few years at the least.

5. Houston Astros

Houston may be the one team that does the least with the most talent. With Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada, Roy Oswalt, et al, their win total should be near 85, not 75.

At least from a fantasy perspective, the Astros as an above-.500 team.

Lance Berkman's home runs have dropped each of the past two years, but 29 home runs, over 100 runs and RBI, 18 steals—double his previous career high—and a .312 AVG made him the seventh-most valuable player last year, according to Last Player Picked.

FEIN projects 31 homers, 90 runs, 101 RBI, nine steals, a .287 AVG and a .920 OPS in 633 PA in 2009. He's ranked No. 26 overall and fifth among first basemen.

Outfielder Carlos Lee had just 28 home runs last year—his first season under 30 since 2002—and missed significant playing time due to injury for the first time in his career. If he had kept his home run pace and had 697 PA (his 2008 total), he would have eclipsed 40 homers for the first time in his career.

Currently, he's projected to hit 29 home runs in 579 PA, with 98 RBI, 73 runs, 10 steals, a .291 AVG, and a .869 OPS. Those numbers are worth a fourth-round pick, No. 39 overall, and he's worthy of being a No. 1 OF in standard leagues (Lee's ranked No. 11 among outfielders).

Hunter Pence's rate stats dropped dramatically from his rookie season to last year, as his AVG dropped 53 points and his OPS fell more than 110 points.

But his BABIP decreased from .378 to a more common .303 BABIP, and his other stats declined accordingly. FEIN projects a .285 AVG and a .811 OPS, in addition to 21 homers, 70 runs, 75 RBI, and 11 steals.

Through the first two months of the year (including March), Roy Oswalt's ERA was a paltry 5.45. From then on, however, Oswalt had an ERA three full runs lower, at 2.44, to give him a 3.54 ERA on the year, the lowest of his career.

Oswalt's projected ERA is slightly better than last year's, however. He's projected to go 12-10 with a 3.50 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 149 strikeouts in 192 innings. Despite those numbers, though, he ranks just No. 15 among starting pitchers, or six spots ahead of where he's going on average in ESPN.com drafts.

Things will only get worse for Houston. Of the players noted above, only Hunter Pence is below 30. Pence and J.R. Towles are the only players projected to have an OPS above .700 and are under 30; the other six with an OPS over .700 are 30 or older.

The Astros have seven guys projected to have more than 75 innings; none are younger than 30. That means they have no one younger than 30 in their current rotation.

Enjoy your playoff appearances, Houston. You won't see it for a while.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

What is there to say? Sixteen consecutive seasons under .500, under 70 wins each of the past three years, under 76 every year this decade...seriously?

Pittsburgh has a whopping 22 pitchers on their team or now in the minors that had 10 or more innings pitched last year. Only one is projected to have an ERA under 4.00. That pretty much sums up the Pirates' pitching staff.

Paul Maholm had a 3.71 ERA in 206 innings last year but had just nine wins (thanks to just three runs of run support in more than half his starts) and 139 strikeouts. Maholm's projected to have a 4.30 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 188 innings, with 10 wins and 124 strikeouts.

He's ranked just No. 66 among starting pitchers.

Closer Matt Capps is the pitcher with a sub-4.00 projected ERA. He's had a combined 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP the past three years, and FEIN projects a 3.40 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP (plus 27 saves) in 64 innings in 2009.

Outfielder Nate McLouth broke out last year, with 26 home runs, 113 runs, 94 RBI, and 23 steals; he received a three-year, $14.5 million deal for his production. He's projected to have 15 homers and 17 steals in 466 PA; in the 685 PA he had last year, his full projected stat line becomes 22 homers, 109 runs, 76 RBI, 25 steals, and a .269 AVG.

Adam LaRoche—not to be confused with brother Andy LaRoche—had a .841 OPS with 25 homers and 85 RBI in 2008, after a .803 OPS in 2007 and a .915 OPS in 2006. FEIN thinks he'll regress from his 2008 stats and projects a .818 OPS, 22 homers, and 81 RBI with a .271 AVG.

It would the wonderful if Pittsburgh could be the next Tampa Bay and win 80 or 90 games next year. It just won't happen next year.

Or in the next three.