2009 First Base Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Busts, and Prospects

In an attempt to get out all the good info that I can before the season starts, I have decided to consolidate the sleepers, busts, and prospects for each position into one article.

So here are the guys you should target late, stay away from, and keep an eye on for the future.

Sleepers

Billy Butler, Royals. Butler is what is referred to as a “professional hitter.” In the minor leagues the guy hit for power, hit for a great batting average, and he didn’t strikeout very much at all.

In just 121 games in the minors in 2005, Butler hit .329, with 30 home runs and drove in 110 runs. He also hit the snot out of the ball while he was at AAA in 2007, with 13 long balls in just 57 games.

Unfortunately, so far the power hasn’t translated to the big leagues yet, as Butler has only connected on 19 bombs in his two seasons in the majors. Obviously, because of this most of his future star status has dimmed. However, he will have a big-time big-league career.

Butler is doing very well this spring, batting .313 with a couple of home runs already. According to Mock Draft Central, Butler is being picked in the 24th round in drafts, which is great news for you.

He won’t turn 23 until just after the season starts, and this guy has future star written all over him. If you can get him that late in drafts, it is a no brainer, Butler could be great as soon as 2009.

Gaby Sanchez, Marlins. The Marlins traded away Mike Jacobs with the idea of giving Sanchez the first base job. Sanchez isn’t your prototypical power hitting first baseman, he is more in the mold of someone like Joey Votto.

Good average, 20-homer potential, and above average speed for his position. Sanchez is another guy who has really good plate discipline for a young hitter, as he only struck out 69 times (and walked 69 times) in 132 games in 2008.

Given the fact that he won’t be a power hitter, that should cause him to fall very late in drafts or it is likely that he won’t be chosen at all. This will give you a chance to see if he gets off to a good start before deciding whether or not to add him to your roster.

But if you find yourself late in a draft and you can’t decide who to pick, Gaby’s potential makes him worth the risk.

Kendry Morales, Angels. This isn’t Morales’ first shot at the majors, but the Angels have plenty of faith in him as they made no move to replace Mark Teixeira at first. Morales was the total package in the minors, as in 78 games at AAA last season he hit .341 with 15 homers and drove in 64 runs.

He won’t bring you any speed, but has a pretty good eye at the plate (only 43 Ks). However, Morales is now 26, and he has had three tastes at the big time before and has fallen on his face each time.

In his 127 major-league games, Morales is a .249 hitter with just 12 home runs and 45 RBI. If he does that again, Angels’ fans will be rioting in the street. The tools are all there, and Morales has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues.

He will get his chance this season to finally prove his worth, and he could be worth a spot on your roster.

Paul Konerko, White Sox. Let’s not forget that before last year when he was the victim of one nagging injury after another, Konerko hit 30-41 home runs the four previous seasons.

His average fluctuated wildly, but the power numbers were always there. Konerko was banished to free agency by many a fantasy owner last year, but he finished strong with 13 of his 22 homers in the second half.

He is now lighting it up this spring, with a .378 average and four home runs.

He is being drafted in the 14th round right now, which is incredible value if Paulie is able to bounce back and return to his big time power hitting ways. You won’t have to draft him as a starter, but he could either be an incredible bench option or great trade bait.

Busts

Derrek Lee, Cubs. Anyone who read this site last baseball season knows how down I am on Derrek Lee. 

And why not? 

Lee hit 46 home runs in 2005, and has 50 since. His average has dropped, he’s only driven in 100+ runs once in his career, and the guy is always dealing with nagging injuries.

Right now his average draft position is at the end of the sixth round, which is total madness to me. I expect his statistics to continue to decline a small percentage this year, and if he didn’t reach 20 home runs I wouldn’t be surprised. 

Take Joey Votto, take James Loney, heck even take Carlos Delgado. They are all being drafted after Lee.

Jorge Cantu, Marlins. After a couple of years of battling injuries and being on three teams in two years, Cantu had a full healthy season and was tremendous. But which Cantu is the real one? 

The 29 HR and near 100 RBI guy from 2008?  Or is it the ’06-’07 version who couldn’t play near a full season and had 15 homers in two years?  Outside of one season in the minors, and that one great year in 2005, Cantu never really showed signs of having this much power.

I think there is a significant amount of risk in drafting Cantu and expecting a repeat of last year.

Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks. Jackson was always a highly touted prospect for the Diamondbacks and we are STILL waiting for him to live up to the hype. Jackson’s average has been slowly increasing over his career, but he will never hit for enough power for you to use him in fantasy at a corner infield spot. 

He should be OF eligible this season as well, but that is another position where you figure you will get power. His average is decent, and he will drive in some runs, but he doesn’t steal enough bases or hit enough homers to warrant a roster spot.

And I can’t imagine either increasing in the near future. Jackson is currently being drafted in front of Justin Upton, Pablo Sandoval, and Rick Ankiel among others. Do you see him outproducing any of those guys?

Prospects

Justin Smoak, Rangers. He was the 11th overall pick in last season’s draft after an amazing career at South Carolina. In 195 games in college, Smoak smoked 62 home runs and was well over a .300 hitter.

Smoak is just 22 years old, but has a chance to find Texas this year just like his teammate Chris Davis did last year.

In fact, that is a reasonable comparison to make.  They are both great, young, power hitting prospects for the Rangers. If he can find his way to Texas during that humid summer, he would be worth grabbing. If not, 2010 will be his year.

Logan Morrison, Marlins. Morrison is waiting in the wings just in case Gaby Sanchez doesn’t produce like they think he will. Morrison projects to hit for a .275-.285 average, but it is his power potential that catches people’s attention. 

He will be a 25-30 homer guy when he reaches the majors, but there’s no telling when that might be. He did steal nine bases in 2008, but that is not a category that he is expected to contribute to.

Morrison should start the season at AA, but if he catches a few breaks, could find his way to Florida at some point in 2009.

Lars Anderson, Red Sox. Anderson is your prototypical first base prospect. He couldn’t steal a base if the catcher lost the ball, but he can hit the ball a long way. In two stops in the minors last year (118 games), Anderson hit 18 homers and drove in 80 runs.

These are numbers that the Red Sox expect to increase the more experience he gets. Anderson won’t turn 22 until the very end of September, and the sky is the limit.

IF something were to happen to Mike Lowell, and Jed Lowrie was still playing shortstop, there’s an outside chance that you might see Anderson in 2009, but it is kind of unlikely.

Kila Ka’aihue, Royals. Ka’aihue has some major league power. He was in AA, was promoted to AAA, and even spent 12 games with the Royals.

Over those three stops, Ka’aihue hit 38 homers and drove in exactly 100 runs. However, with Mike Jacobs set at first, and Billy Butler looking to man the DH position, it would most likely take an injury to get Ka’aihue to the big leauges.

His average will most likely be in the .275-.280 range, but he will be a 30-homer guy at some point in the majors. That might be a year or two away, but keep an eye on the big Hawaiian.

Chris Carter, Athletics. Carter opened eyes in 2007 when he hit 24 homers in Class A ball. He got your attention by smacking you across the face when he went to Class A Advanced and bombed 39 shots.

He doesn’t hit for a great average, and he also strikes out too much, but sometime in the future he could be a great power hitter in the majors. He won’t find his way to Oakland this year without a minor miracle, but Carter is a name that you want to remember for the future.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.

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