2009 First Base Fantasy Position Rankings

We have already given you the five Burning Questions at 1B, and how you should expect them to be drafted when your day comes. But now comes the Fighting Chance rankings of the first basemen. This is how I would draft them, and my opinion on who is the best, and who isn’t worth the hype. Enjoy!

1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2008 stats: .357 avg, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 100 runs, 7 SB

Analysis: You just can’t find anyone better or more consistent than Pujols. He hits for the best average at the position, hits between 35-45 homers a year, and is among the leaders in RBI. After all of that, Pujols will also steal you 6-12 bases during the year. He shouldn’t be picked beyond the No. 5 overall pick.

2.  Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2008 stats: .292 avg, 37 HR, 127 RBI, 85 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: The move to first base complete, Cabrera is now one of the best options on that side of the diamond. Still only 25 years old, Cabrera seems like he’s been around forever. He got off to a bad start in 2008, so you can expect his average to go up 15-25 points, and his power numbers should remain about the same.

3.  Ryan Howard, Phillies
2008 stats: .251 avg, 48 HR, 146 RBI, 105 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: No one in the game will bring you the kind of power that you will get from Howard, and that’s a guarantee. Howard has fallen some in drafts because his batting average has dropped for three straight seasons, but the guy is a former Rookie of the Year, and also an MVP. Do you really think he will continue to hit .250? I don’t. Look for Howard to get back to around .280 and hit 45-50 homers again in 2009.

4.  Mark Teixeira, Yankees
2008 stats: .308 avg, 33 HR, 121 RBI, 102 runs, 2 SB

Analysis: If you draft Teixeira, PLEASE don’t get frustrated by the slow start that he is sure to get off to. He always has a slow April and often a slow May, but in the end his numbers are always there.

There will be some new pressure on him after the huge contract that he signed with the Yankees. They will need him especially at the outset of the season with the absence of Alex Rodriguez. This would be a nice year for him to get off to a good start, but don’t count on it. Teixeira is a great buy low target in the middle of May when his owner is frustrated with him.

5.  Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
2008 stats: .279 avg, 36 HR, 119 RBI, 103 runs, 0 SB

Analysis: Over his last three years as a starter, Gonzalez has improved his home run and RBI totals each year. Even in the cavernous Petco Park, Gonzalez is still able to put up some of the best power numbers at the position. He was always a highly regarded prospect, so there is no reason to believe that his numbers will drop off.

6.  Prince Fielder, Brewers
2008 stats: .276 avg, 34 HR, 102 RBI, 86 runs, 3 SB

Analysis: OK, so his home run numbers fell off considerably in 2008, but the guy is still very young, and I think that he will challenge 40 home runs again this year. He won’t hurt you (or really help) at batting average, and his power is really only matched by Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn. Expect a bounce-back year in 2009.

7.  Adam Dunn, Nationals
2008 stats: .236 avg, 40 HR, 100 RBI, 79 runs, 2 SB

Analysis: Even though his average has been terrible over his career, I am starting to come around on Dunn.  He has hit 40 home runs in three straight seasons, and even if he doesn’t reach that milestone again in 2009, he should get within two or three. Dunn is having a great start to the year in the World Baseball Classic, and he will now be the focal point of the Washington Nationals lineup.

8.  Lance Berkman, Astros
2008 stats: .312 avg, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 114 runs, 18 SB

Analysis: Berkman looked to be a shoo-in for the MVP at the All-Star Break, but then collapsed in the second half, hitting just over .250 with only seven home runs. His power has been declining in recent years, although he still hits for a pretty good average. Don’t get fooled by that stolen base number—he had stolen a total of 10 in the last two seasons.

9.  Justin Morneau, Twins
2008 stats: .300 avg, 23 HR, 129 RBI, 97 runs, 0 SB

Analysis:  Another former MVP, Morneau’s home run numbers took a pretty serious dip in 2008. Given the consistency throughout his career, this isn’t a guy I’m worried about. Morneau is a 30-homer guy and is generally a .300 hitter. He isn’t an elite option, but someone that I would feel very comfortable with having as my starting 1B if I drafted other positions earlier in the draft.

10.  Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
2008 stats: .312 avg, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 91 runs, 3 SB

Analysis: Youk finally broke out in a big way, but there are concerns if he can repeat his performance from 2008. He was never a power guy during his career, and it really wasn’t expected. He was always known as a good average guy who would drive in some runs, but I don’t think 30 HRs was supposed to be in the cards. He still could hit 23 jacks and drive in 90-95 runs, but I don’t think you should expect a repeat of 2008.

11.  Joey Votto, Reds
2008 stats: .297 avg, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 69 runs, 7 SB

Analysis: One the brighter young stars in the league, Votto should be manning first base for the Reds for a long time. Given his minor league statistics, he likely won’t hit many more home runs than he did in 2008, but you can expect him to steal more bases. Votto isn’t a guy you would love having starting for you at the beginning of the year, but by the end of 2009, he could be that type of player.

12.  Chris Davis, Rangers
2008 stats (80 games): .285 avg, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 51 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: Davis is perhaps the leader of the next generation of power hitter. Just look at the numbers he put up last season. It can be dangerous to take stats from half a year and just assume they will double over a full season, but Davis has legitimate 30-homer potential, and hitting in Texas in July will do nothing but help his numbers.

13.  Carlos Pena, Rays
2008 stats: .247 avg, 31 HR, 102 RBI, 76 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: Pena is another guy who will do you no favors with his batting average, but is worth having on your team due to the number of balls he puts in bleachers during the season. He hits in a great lineup, which should help his RBI opportunities, and although his ball park isn’t small, it isn’t huge either.

If Pena could get up to .260, he would be a reasonable guy to have starting at 1B. If not, he is still worth a spot on your roster, perhaps at UTIL.

14.  Aubrey Huff, Orioles
2008 stats: .304 avg, 32 HR, 108 RBI, 96 runs, 4 SB

Analysis: Huff did have a few great years in Tampa Bay earlier this decade, and the question is whether Huff is back, or was it just one good year? He will have 1B and 3B eligibility, which will help his fantasy value. I expect his average to take about a 30-point drop, but I think his power will stay in the neighborhood of his 2008 stats. Look for .280 with 28 HRs and 94 RBI.

15.  James Loney, Dodgers
2008 stats: .289 avg, 13 HR, 90 RBI, 66 runs, 7 SB

Analysis: Lots of people like James Loney this year, but I have one problem with him. He hasn’t hit for a high enough average to make up for his lack of power at first base. First is a position in fantasy where you generally have a big-time power hitter, and if you were to use a contact guy, you want at least a .320 average. He is still very young, so he is worth taking a chance on. However, I would want it to be on my bench.

16.  Carlos Delgado, Mets
2008 stats: .271 avg, 38 HR, 115 RBI, 96 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: Who is the real Carlos Delgado? The guy who was nearly run out of town? Or the guy from the last three months who was an MVP candidate? Delgado is getting long in the tooth, so if he did fall off, no one would be surprised, but he has been a prolific hitter throughout his career. It seems that most fantasy players are not believing in 2008, so you could draft him as your backup guy, but he could play like a starter.

17.  Derrek Lee, Cubs
2008 stats: .291 avg, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 93 runs, 8 SB

Analysis: I can’t get much farther off of the Derrek Lee bandwagon than I am right now. Lee has a hard time staying healthy, his power is virtually sapped, and he doesn’t steal many bases anymore. He is no longer a guy that I would want in my starting lineup, and if he keeps declining like he has been, he might not be worth a roster spot much longer. Let someone else draft Lee.

18.  Adam LaRoche, Pirates
2008 stats: .270 avg, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 66 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: There is nothing exciting to talk about here, but you can do worse than LaRoche. He hits for a fine average, gives you decent pop, and is generally very consistent. If your starter has an injury, LaRoche is a guy who can fill in for you for a month or two. I just wouldn’t want to have to start him every day.

19.  Paul Konerko, White Sox
2008 stats: .240 avg, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 59 runs, 2 SB

Analysis: Konerko dropped off the fantasy map last year after injuries and inconsistencies sapped his power and production. However, he was a consistent 30-40 homer guy the previous four years. Konerko will be available pretty late in your draft and is a great guy to take a chance on. If he is able to get his average back up, and his power back in the 30s, you have yourself an incredible pick at your UTIL or perhaps riding your pine.

20.  Billy Butler, Royals
2008 stats: .275 avg, 11 HR, 55 RBI, 44 runs, 0 SB

Analysis: Butler has all the talent in the world as a hitter, and one of these years he will start being a perennial 30-homer guy. However, so far his minor league power hasn’t translated to the big leagues. Many people, including myself, are predicting that the Royals will be better in 2009. If that is going to be the case, Butler will have to be a big part of it. He obviously won’t be your starter, but is a good sleeper late in drafts.

21.  Mike Jacobs, Royals
2008 stats: .247 avg, 32 HR, 93 RBI, 67 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: In the mold of Carlos Pena, Jacobs is a player that will bring you a boatload of power, with very little help in the average category. Going from the National to the American League, it is possible that Jacobs will struggle in his new league. He will also be pushed by young Kila Ka’aihue and Ryan Shealy, so if he struggles, that could mean trouble.

As a late round option he is good as a good source of power, but no one that you can count on to be consistent.

22.  Jason Giambi, Athletics
2008 stats: .247 avg, 32 HR, 96 RBI, 68 runs, 2 SB

Analysis: Back in his old stomping grounds, Giambi comes to the A’s as a totally different player from when he left. Giambi is better served as a DH at this point in his career, but could get some time at 1B with Daric Barton’s injury. Either way, Giambi is like most guys at this point of this list—good power, not much in the average category.

Getting out of New York could be the best thing that ever happened to Giambi, and there’s a chance he could rebound. Just don’t bet a lot on that.

23.  Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
2008 stats:  (minors) .316 avg, 17 HR, 91 RBI, 70 runs, 17 SB

Analysis: The Marlins traded Mike Jacobs away with the idea of giving Sanchez the chance to start at 1B. Sanchez has been on the prospect radar for some time now, and some have questions about his ability to hit for enough power to be a big league first baseman. If you were to draft Sanchez it would be very late in the game, so he is a guy worth taking a flier on as he has some good potential.

24.  Kendry Morales, Angels
2008 stats: (minors) .341 avg, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 46 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: Morales has gotten a chance or two at the majors already, and so far he has been unable to cash in on those opportunities. In fact, he has really fallen on his face every chance he has been given. However, now the Angels have lost Mark Teixeira to free agency, so this will be the first time that Morales gets an extended look.

He has had some great seasons in the minors, so the potential is there. He also has basically no competition for the job, so he will have to falter badly to lose his job.

25.  Casey Kotchman, Braves
2008 stats: .272 avg, 14 RBI, 74 RBI, 65 runs, 2 SB

Analysis: It is time to pack it in on Casey Kotchman. There are too many negatives. He gets injured too much. He doesn’t hit for a high average. He doesn’t hit for nearly enough power to play first. Kotchman was once a highly rated prospect for the Angels, but his days as a fantasy player are already over.

26.  Ryan Garko, Indians
2008 stats: .273 avg, 14 HR, 90 RBI, 61 runs, 0 SB

Analysis: Garko has some potential, but he has even more competition for playing time. The Indians have two great catchers in Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach and would like to get both bats in the lineup. With Travis Hafner at DH, the only other choice is try to move Martinez to first. This could have an effect on Garko’s production if his playing time is cut into.

There is some potential here, so he could be worth a last round pick, or at least be a guy that you keep your eye on early in the season. Don’t expect too much from Garko, and you won’t be disappointed.

27.  Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
2008 stats: .270 avg, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 74 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: Overbay is a guy who doesn’t do anything well enough to deserve to be drafted.  His batting average is just that—average. His power is pathetic for a first baseman, he steals no bases, and he doesn’t score a great number of runs. He isn’t a rookie, so there’s no reason to believe he will improve either. You better be pretty desperate if you are thinking of drafting Overbay, and there is no reason to put him in your lineup.

28.  Todd Helton, Rockies
2008 stats: (83 games) .264 avg, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 29 runs, 0 SB

Analysis: I wouldn’t touch Helton with a 52-foot pole. Back problems are generally the beginning of the end of an athlete’s performance, and Helton has had back trouble for years. His power has been sapped, and even his batting average is nowhere near where it once was.

Helton had surgery to correct his problem, and he's having a great spring, but don’t be sucked into this resurgence. Helton will either get hurt, or his numbers will nose dive. Expect no better than a .300 average and 20 home runs, and that is likely being generous.

29.  Travis Ishikawa, Giants
2008 stats: (33 games) .274 avg, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 12 runs, 1 SB

Analysis: Ishikawa isn’t the kind of player that is going to bang out 30 homers, but he might do enough to be worth a spot on your bench. He had some pretty good seasons in the minors and could be a 20-25 homer guy. He won’t hit for a good average, which will likely be his fantasy downfall, but he is worth keeping an eye on.

Ishikawa is a guy who goes undrafted, so keep an eye on him this spring. He has hit three homers by the 20th of March.

30.  Bryan LaHair, Mariners
2008 stats: (45 games) .250 avg, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 15 runs, 0 SB

Analysis: The Mariners thought they might have their first baseman of the future in LaHair, but he struggled BADLY in his first shot at the job in 2008. He was so bad, in fact, that they have been playing him some in the outfield in Spring Training. He had a few decent seasons in the minors, but nothing that stands out at you so much that you need to put him on your team. Watch to see if he plays well or even gets regular at-bats.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.

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